Kei Nishikori: #9 player in the world

[El Dude]

I haven't heard any talk about Kei Nishikori's rise into the top 10. With today's victory over David Ferrer he's now 4-3 against the second best Spaniard in the world, and will rank #9 after Madrid is over (regardless of how he fares against Rafa tomorrow).

Any thoughts on Kei? Could he be a potential fixture in the mid-to-bottom top 10 ala Ferrer, or is he more of a Gilles Simon type who peeks into the top 10 but is more of a #11-20 player?

I tend to think the latter, but his play of late has been impressive. With Gasquet and Tsonga seemingly in decline, and del Potro soon to exit the top 10, Kei could be a contender--along with Dimitrov and Raonic, maybe even Fognini, Gulbis, and Dolgopolov--to be a new member of the year-end top 10.

p.s. I wrote this about 15 minutes ago, thinking it would be a quicker final game! Wow.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

One thing about Kei is that he takes the ball on the rise and likes to go for winners as opposed to grinding forever. So in that sense he is different from guys like David and Simon. He has been constantly improving. One thing against him, he gets injured a lot.

He stays healthy and improves the way he has been in the last couple of years, he stays in the top ten, IMHO.

 

[tented]

One thing about Kei is that he takes the ball on the rise and likes to go for winners as opposed to grinding forever. So in that sense he is different from guys like David and Simon. He has been constantly improving. One thing against him, he gets injured a lot.

He stays healthy and improves the way he has been in the last couple of years, he stays in the top ten, IMHO.

That's key. If he can maintain his body, and keep up his motivation (which Chang has clearly helped improve), then I think he can stay in the 7-15 range for a while.

 

[Moxie]

One thing about Kei is that he takes the ball on the rise and likes to go for winners as opposed to grinding forever. So in that sense he is different from guys like David and Simon. He has been constantly improving. One thing against him, he gets injured a lot.

He stays healthy and improves the way he has been in the last couple of years, he stays in the top ten, IMHO.

That's key. If he can maintain his body, and keep up his motivation (which Chang has clearly helped improve), then I think he can stay in the 7-15 range for a while.

Agree with both of these, and I was going to give Chang a nod in the Coach Effect thread, even before the win today. What you said about his playing style, Murat, brings to mind Davydenko, who was another small(er) guy and a fixture in the top 5 for quite a while. His motivation should be high, given that he is the first Japanese man to achieve so much, but that can come with the double-edged sword of pressure. We'll see how that goes. He's becoming a real danger in best 2 of 3 tournaments. If he can improve his fitness, he should go much deeper in Majors, especially with the improved ranking.

 

[herios]

I agree with tented and murat. Kei has been able to rise last year to #11, without even an outstanding strong result under his belt, like this master final is, which sends him to #9.
Last year he has then fallen back mainly because his consistency was affected by injuries.
The #7 to 16 I would say would be a good range he could be in for a long time, because his game is well suited we can see now to both clay and hard.
Although he appeared in the radar way back in 2008 at the USO, he is still young at 24, in development as we can see, this year he is a lot stronger than a year ago.
Miami SF and now Madrid F, beside the Barca win are great results in a very short time frame.

 

[Front242]

Very impressive alright but he sure is brittle. I compared him to Monfils yesterday. Goes on a high performance roll and then gets injured time and time again. Impressive that he didn't crumble today and lose the long game at the end but will he be injured now again after tomorrow. Time will tell.

 

[kskate2]

He has a huge upside. Can consistently return anyone's serve. I'd put him right behind Novak as best active returners on tour. His serve is underrated, he takes the ball extremely early. Is a very sweet ball-striker. Agree that he needs to stay healthy. If he doesn't already have one, he should hire his own physio.

 

[Moxie]

I've been shocked by his serve the last few tournaments, but if we're still underrating it, I'd say, at our peril.

 

[kskate2]

I've been shocked by his serve the last few tournaments, but if we're still underrating it, I'd say, at our peril.

I'm not underrating it, but back in IW or Miami one match was absolutely scary. Every other serve was an ace or a service winner. I called him Kei Sampras that day and I was abrubtly told that his serve wasn't as good as Pete's and I was exagerrating.

 

[Moxie]

I've been shocked by his serve the last few tournaments, but if we're still underrating it, I'd say, at our peril.

I'm not underrating it, but back in IW or Miami one match was absolutely scary. Every other serve was an ace or a service winner. I called him Kei Sampras that day and I was abrubtly told that his serve wasn't as good as Pete's and I was exagerrating.

I think I remember that match. He suddenly came up a stunner on serve, and it has definitely become a weapon. (Folks get sensitive about Pete, though.)

 

[Federberg]

He's playing big man tennis. Is he better on slow or fast hard?

 

[Kirijax]

If he can stay healthy, he could reach the top 4 with even a Grand Slam title before he retires.

If he can stay healthy...

 

[brokenshoelace]

Key reminds me of an inferior Davydenko in some ways (this is actually meant to be a compliment).

 

[El Dude]

If he can stay healthy, he could reach the top 4 with even a Grand Slam title before he retires.

My knee-jerk response to this was "No way. Maybe an ATP 1000, but certainly not a Slam."

But then I thought, why not? I think I am, we all are perhaps, biased by an era--the last decade, really--that has been dominated by just a few players. While I don't see the Big Four going away any time soon, or at least in the next 1-2 years, I do think that we're entering an era in which the Big Four don't utterly dominate, and players like Wawrinka--and perhaps a Berdych or Nishikori, and certainly eventually Dimitrov--could sneak away with a Slam title.

From 2004-2013, a span of ten years and 40 Slams, only 7 men won a Grand Slam - and three of those men (Gaudio, Safin, del Potro) only once each. But in only the two years previous, 2002-03, we had eight different winners for eight Slams. So these things change.

 

[kskate2]

^^If he can win a M1000, he should be able to get to a slam final someday. Anything can happen: draws can open up, injuries, pregnant wives/gf's or just a plain ole early round exit. The big 4 is not impenetrable anymore. Once Kei gets to the final, it's up to him to execute.

 

[Kirijax]

He'll definitely have a chance when they change the GS format from 5 to 3 sets.

 

[Kieran]

He'll definitely have a chance when they change the GS format from 5 to 3 sets.

Oh, pray they don't! This isn't women's tennis... :nono

 

[Denis]

Key reminds me of an inferior Davydenko in some ways (this is actually meant to be a compliment).

I think he´s better actually. Serves better. And has more grit mentally.

 

[tented]

He'll definitely have a chance when they change the GS format from 5 to 3 sets.

Oh, pray they don't! This isn't women's tennis... :nono

They won't do that. It would render all GS stats meaningless.

 

[Kieran]

He'll definitely have a chance when they change the GS format from 5 to 3 sets.

Oh, pray they don't! This isn't women's tennis... :nono

They won't do that. It would render all GS stats meaningless.

I don't think I'd bother to watch. Seriously, it would be catastrophic. But I agree, it'll never happen.

Going back to Kirijax, I was impressed with Kei this year so far and I think mentally he's sorting things out. As a Rafa fan, I can take no joy in players losing through injury, and I hope he gets stronger and can compete without worry over five...