If back in 2018…

[Jelenafan]

Someone had been wagered that one of either Zverev, Tsitsipas, Shapovalov or FAA would win a Grand Slam title by the end of 2024 most people around here I would guess would have taken it.

Today, i would say it’s a safe bet none of them will ever win a singles Grand Slam.

Zverev after the US open loss to Fritz did another variation of his excuses tour:

“My backhand, I don't remember since being on tour hitting my backhand this badly. I just don't. I mean, I was missing shots which were in the middle of the court with no pace, and bottom of the net. Terrible. Just absolutely terrible by me.

“My forehand was okay, actually. My serve was okay. But my most reliable shot, the shot that I'm most known for, the shot that you normally wake me up at 3am. and I would not miss was absolutely not there today, and I have no words for it, to be honest.”

 

[El Dude]

Shapo is still basically what he was five years ago, so I don't expect anything more from him. He's a somewhat entertaining player with natural talent, but without the mental game and refinement to be an elite player.

The door isn't closed on Zverev and Tsitsipas - I mean, they're 27 and 25, respectively. But it may be hard for them to get by the Sincaraz Hegemony. I mean, they swapped out Djokodal for Sincaraz, with really no gap in between to "vulture" a Slam or two. But there's still the possibility that, within the next few years, they do a "cilic" and have an incredible Slam tournament, perhaps with the help with an upset or two.

I'm afraid FAA just doesn't have the spine/mentality to win a Slam, but I still see him as likely to win a Masters or two. Who knows, maybe he wins a Masters and finds the desire for more. He's still only 23.

Here's a thought: while the chances that any one of them wins a Slam is probably somewhere quite a bit below 50%, maybe the chances that one of them wins one is a bit higher. Ignoring Shapo, I'd give roughly 50-50 odds that one of the other three wins a Slam.

 

[shawnbm]

It is odd, no? There is such a stark difference between these guys and Carlos and Sinner. It is a lack of focus and intensity that the truly top players have. You can see it viscerally with Nadal, Nole and Carlos, but it is there in the quieter demeanor of Federer and Sinner too. All are supremely confident and believe at crunch time they are going to win. Federer and Novak have been the top tiebreak players for almost twenty years and that says something. They have great down two sets and come back to win records. Carlos does too. Nadal has a great best of five set record and I am sure all of these alpha players have tremendous deciding set records as well. They must have.

 

[Jelenafan]

…
I'm afraid FAA just doesn't have the spine/mentality to win a Slam, but I still see him as likely to win a Masters or two. Who knows, maybe he wins a Masters and finds the desire for more. He's still only 23…

Felix was born in August 2020 so he’s already 24

 

[El Dude]

Felix was born in August 2020 so he’s already 24

You mean 4? Wow, he's an amazing player. ;-)

 

[El Dude]

It is odd, no? There is such a stark difference between these guys and Carlos and Sinner. It is a lack of focus and intensity that the truly top players have. You can see it viscerally with Nadal, Nole and Carlos, but it is there in the quieter demeanor of Federer and Sinner too. All are supremely confident and believe at crunch time they are going to win. Federer and Novak have been the top tiebreak players for almost twenty years and that says something. They have great down two sets and come back to win records. Carlos does too. Nadal has a great best of five set record and I am sure all of these alpha players have tremendous deciding set records as well. They must have.

I'm again reminded of what Novak said about this, that the top 20ish or more players (he might have said 100) are of similar talent, but that the mental game separates them - whether it is confidence, drive to work as hard as possible, etc.

Now it is hard to get one's head around the idea that Carlos Alcaraz and, say, Corentin Moutet are close in talent level. We can even see a big gulf between Alcaraz (et al) and guys like Alex De Minaur, Nadal and Ferrer, Federer and Berdych, etc. But I think that Novak was just highlighting how important the mental game is. I mean, we look at a guy like FAA and he has all the tools to be an elite player and Slam winner, but for whatever reason, he just doesn't have the mental part down.

And of course all roads of this discussion eventually lead back to David Nalbandian.

 

[shawnbm]

Ah yes--the wily Argentine and Cali. Those were the days!

 

[Jelenafan]

Now it is hard to get one's head around the idea that Carlos Alcaraz and, say, Corentin Moutet are close in talent level. We can even see a big gulf between Alcaraz (et al) and guys like Alex De Minaur, Nadal and Ferrer, Federer and Berdych, etc. But I think that Novak was just highlighting how important the mental game is. I mean, we look at a guy like FAA and he has all the tools to be an elite player and Slam winner, but for whatever reason, he just doesn't have the mental part down.

Felix doesn’t care if he loses. The very top players seem to have their heart carved out when they experience a loss, Felix just shrugs aka “I’m only 18”, “I’m only 19”, “I’m only 20”, 21, 22, 23, 24, etc.

At the same time, Ive always thought his skills are highly overrated , the “style points” impress other when the main thing is just get the damn ball over the net last.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Shapo is still basically what he was five years ago, so I don't expect anything more from him. He's a somewhat entertaining player with natural talent, but without the mental game and refinement to be an elite player.

The door isn't closed on Zverev and Tsitsipas - I mean, they're 27 and 25, respectively. But it may be hard for them to get by the Sincaraz Hegemony. I mean, they swapped out Djokodal for Sincaraz, with really no gap in between to "vulture" a Slam or two. But there's still the possibility that, within the next few years, they do a "cilic" and have an incredible Slam tournament, perhaps with the help with an upset or two.

I'm afraid FAA just doesn't have the spine/mentality to win a Slam, but I still see him as likely to win a Masters or two. Who knows, maybe he wins a Masters and finds the desire for more. He's still only 23.

Here's a thought: while the chances that any one of them wins a Slam is probably somewhere quite a bit below 50%, maybe the chances that one of them wins one is a bit higher. Ignoring Shapo, I'd give roughly 50-50 odds that one of the other three wins a Slam.

I do not think the door is closed on Zverev. As much he is a "choker" on Slam matches, he still reaching SFs and Final on 3 out of the 4 slams. I could definitely see him do a "Cilic" type of run in a Slam (probably RG).

On the other hand, I do think Tsitsipas' window is closed. To me, it seems like he has regressed overall as a player. The results just speak for itself.

 

[shawnbm]

Felix doesn’t care if he loses. The very top players seem to have their heart carved out when they experience a loss, Felix just shrugs aka “I’m only 18”, “I’m only 19”, “I’m only 20”, 21, 22, 23, 24, etc.

At the same time, Ive always thought his skills are highly overrated , the “style points” impress other when the main thing is just get the damn ball over the net last.

There is always the element of great reward for just being a top 50 player. I see the money these guys are making now which is directly linked to the glory days in the 1970s that got the tour going and then has been greatly expanded and has enriched many more since the rise of the big three in the last two decades. I wonder how much the money dampens the drive in some players, obviously not all. When there is that much money in the pot, I wonder how hard some guys want to fight when the difference is making a $750,000 v. $450,000 – – either way look at it, you are far ahead of most people in life when you get that deep in a major event. If you are playing all the mandatory events throughout the year, there is a lot of money at stake if you can get beyond the third or fourth round, which a lot of players we are talking about will do routinely. This means they make millions of dollars per year or very close to it, particularly when you count in the exhibitions and the endorsement money linked to playing, appearance fees, etc. I may be way off, but it crosses my mind.

 

[Jelenafan]

I do not think the door is closed on Zverev. As much he is a "choker" on Slam matches, he still reaching SFs and Final on 3 out of the 4 slams. I could definitely see him do a "Cilic" type of run in a Slam (probably RG).

On the other hand, I do think Tsitsipas' window is closed. To me, it seems like he has regressed overall as a player. The results just speak for itself.

Zverev lost to Taylor Fritz, a player who is fairly one- dimensional, again to Taylor Fritz.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Zverev lost to Taylor Fritz, a player who is fairly one- dimensional, again to Taylor Fritz.

You are right, but he also reached the AO SF and RG F this year.

Like I said, he is a choker at big slam matches, but he still very talented enough to go deep at slams consistently. Whether or not he wins a slam, that’s a different question.