How many more Slams for Rafa?

[El Dude]

Some numbers to keep in mind:

Number of Slams after 28th birthday (Open Era):

5 Andre Agassi
4 Rod Laver, Ken Rosewall
3 Jimmy Connors
2 Roger Federer, Pete Sampras, Ivan Lendl, John Newcombe
1 Boris Becker, Arthur Ashe, Rafael Nadal, Goran Ivanisevic, Stanislas Wawrinka, Petr Korda, Andre Gomez, Andre Gimeno
0 Stefan Edberg, John McEnroe, Mats Wilander, (Bjorn Borg)

I might have missed one or two, but you get the picture. Rafa is entering rarified territory - especially once he wins his next Slam. But the question is, how many more does he have in him?

Obviously we can't know, but it is worth speculating. I'm thinking somewhere in the 2-4 range, so that he'll finish with 16-18. Of course he could blow that out of the water and win 6 more and reach a cool 20.

Go ahead and vote! And try to be object (ahem, Keiran). This isn't voting for who you want to win a Slam, but what you think will happen, at least trying to approach some degree of impartiality.

 

[Kieran]

I could take offense at that one, buddy, but I'll let it go. Seems that predicting it right for the final is a sign I'm not objective, right?

I think this one is hard to say. He might have struggled badly in a fifth set on Sunday and in Oz he just couldn't compete, point blank. So physical issues might still be a problem for Rafa. However, I think he's managing okay with whatever he has and he's won 2 of the last 3 majors, while being crippled in the final of the other.

I dunno what he'll do at Wimbledon, he's gone back to being a virtually unknown quantity there, and he's never defended a tournament off clay, so it would be premature and unobjective to say he'd be the favourite in the US Open.

His appetite is immense and if he can pace himself, I think he can certainly win at least one more slam off clay - and one more on it...

 

[shawnbm]

I have not changed my thoughts. I have voted for 15-16 for a bit now. I think this title in Paris is his only one this year. I believe the days of him winning SW19 are likely behind him. Ironically enough, he has won in New York twice since 2010. Might that be a better chance for Nadal, as strange as that seems?

 

[DarthFed]

I'd say 4 more. My theory with Rafa on clay has proved right. His movement is almost a secondary factor there. He doesn't move anywhere near as well as he used to but the rally forehand is still unplayable for anyone but Nole. Make his movement "average" or close to it and he is still beating everyone there. I think Nole is the only threat to Nadal on clay for at least the next few years and even then there are plenty of questions to be answered about Nole on the big stage. Rafa will ride the wave of confidence and win at least 1 of the next 3. The field is there for the taking when you stop and think about it. You have washed up Roger, mentally ailing Nole and then Murray. It's a good time for Rafa to strike.

 

[El Dude]

Kieran, I thought you were impervious to taking offense . If anything you should take offense that I keep spelling your name "ei" rather than "ie." I think it is because one of my students is named "Keiran."

Anyhow, if you think only 2 more than I guess I'm more optimistic as I'm predicting 3, which is 1-2 on clay, 1-2 off. But Rafa is full of surprises, so it is possible he wins 5 more and shuts all of us up in complete awe. One thing he has going for him is the soft underbelly of the 20-25 year olds on tour. Once poor Roger hit 28 he had to deal with a surging Rafa, Novak, and Andy. Rafa still has Novak and Andy, but both of them are showing cracks in the armor, and the rising "studs" are a bit less daunting: Raonic, Dimitrov and Janowicz?

As for objectivity, who is when their favorite player is involved? I'd like to think Roger has one more Slam in him, but "objectively" I realize it is an enormous long-shot. I suppose Wimbledon this year is his last, best shot - with the US Open, 2015 Australian Open, and maybe 2015 Wimbledon being a dim flicker of a chance. But while the voice of my heart says, "He can do it one more time!" my rational mind says, "Ain't gonna happen."

 

[Kieran]

I always found it strange when people used to predict 20 or more slams for Roger. Likewise, for Rafa. As you say, he's at the thin end of the career now, and look how much it's taking out of him physically and emotionally to play the last three slams: he went off the boil after Flushing Meadows, he went into a mope after Oz, and he was wrecked and weeping after the final last Sunday.

I say he can win "at least" one more on clay, and at least one off it, too. He could get three more, but like I say, he's unknown on grass now, and he's never defended a title off clay. There's two slams already I wouldn't predict he'd win.

The next one after that is next January - who knows what'll happen?

By the way, I bet that Keiran is your favourite student! :snigger

 

[rahulpawar]

My prediction is 18 ( 2 on clay and 2 elsewhere ).

I always thought Nadal would win at least 1 more grand slam at Wimbledon ( The injuries and lack of proper preparation have been ruining this for the past 2 years ). Wimbledon is still his most successful grand slam venue after RG so I still think he is going to win at least once more on grass and it is also djokovic's weakest surface.

 

[rafanoy1992]

To answer your question, El Dude: I would go with a safe pick: 16-17

He is 28 years old, so it will be hard for him mentally and physically to recover from these Grand Slam matches from time to time; however, he is the mentally toughest athlete.

I would say this: These next six Slams will determine on whether or not he will surpass, tie, or stay short of Federer's record. If he could win at least 2 of the next six majors, then I think he will tie Federer's record of 17 slams. The only reason I did not say he will surpass 17 is because anything can happen especially to Nadal. Just look at what happened at the Australian Open this year. That is why I am going for a safe pick: 16-17

Another thing: He needs to win at least 2 slams outside of Paris. If he could do that, then there's a chance we could see another history. But, there are long ways to go...

 

[Moxie]

I'd say 4 more. My theory with Rafa on clay has proved right. His movement is almost a secondary factor there. He doesn't move anywhere near as well as he used to but the rally forehand is still unplayable for anyone but Nole. Make his movement "average" or close to it and he is still beating everyone there. I think Nole is the only threat to Nadal on clay for at least the next few years and even then there are plenty of questions to be answered about Nole on the big stage. Rafa will ride the wave of confidence and win at least 1 of the next 3. The field is there for the taking when you stop and think about it. You have washed up Roger, mentally ailing Nole and then Murray. It's a good time for Rafa to strike.

You make a good case for 4 more, Darth. I know I'm meant to try to be as objective as possible, but there are places where that gets difficult. I agree with those that say 16-17 is safe-ish bet. (Two more at RG is not improbable, and some other Major before, say, age 31.) With Novak and Andy not looking especially like they'll just flat out make that impossible, and no one else looking like they're going to take on the mantle and camp out in the Top 4, the only other intangible becomes Rafa himself, and this is where, as a fan, I can't be completely objective. If I choose between Nadal being healthy and playing well for the next 3-4 years, or not, I'll choose the former, since either is merely a guess. With all that in mind, four more is not out of his reach.

 

[Ricardo]

I'd say 4 more. My theory with Rafa on clay has proved right. His movement is almost a secondary factor there. He doesn't move anywhere near as well as he used to but the rally forehand is still unplayable for anyone but Nole. Make his movement "average" or close to it and he is still beating everyone there. I think Nole is the only threat to Nadal on clay for at least the next few years and even then there are plenty of questions to be answered about Nole on the big stage. Rafa will ride the wave of confidence and win at least 1 of the next 3. The field is there for the taking when you stop and think about it. You have washed up Roger, mentally ailing Nole and then Murray. It's a good time for Rafa to strike.

actually Rafa's movement is still just about the best in business, he is maybe a step slower but not much worse. and no, make it average and he'd be vulnerable to more players, doesn't take much at this level.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I'd say 4 more. My theory with Rafa on clay has proved right. His movement is almost a secondary factor there. He doesn't move anywhere near as well as he used to but the rally forehand is still unplayable for anyone but Nole. Make his movement "average" or close to it and he is still beating everyone there. I think Nole is the only threat to Nadal on clay for at least the next few years and even then there are plenty of questions to be answered about Nole on the big stage. Rafa will ride the wave of confidence and win at least 1 of the next 3. The field is there for the taking when you stop and think about it. You have washed up Roger, mentally ailing Nole and then Murray. It's a good time for Rafa to strike.

actually Rafa's movement is still just about the best in business, he is maybe a step slower but not much worse. and no, make it average and he'd be vulnerable to more players, doesn't take much at this level.

His footwork is still insane, and his movement is still top 2 (top 1 on clay), but he's noticeably slower than he used to be.

 

[tented]

If he were to win even just one more this year, then I think his chances of at least catching, if not surpassing, Roger increase significantly.

He's won both Wimbledon and the USO twice, so it's not unrealistic to think he could win one of them this year. If he ends 2014 with 15 Majors, getting two more is well within range. If nothing else, he could get RG again, putting him at 16, and he definitely has a shot at getting one more at either the AO, Wimbledon, or the USO.

 

[rafanoy1992]

If he were to win even just one more this year, then I think his chances of at least catching, if not surpassing, Roger increase significantly.

He's won both Wimbledon and the USO twice, so it's not unrealistic to think he could win one of them this year. If he ends 2014 with 15 Majors, getting two more is well within range. If nothing else, he could get RG again, putting him at 16, and he definitely has a shot at getting one more at either the AO, Wimbledon, or the USO.

What's funny tented that before the year started I said to myself that if Nadal could get 15 this year, he would definitely catch Federer's record

 

[kskate2]

I voted 3 more, but I could see him winning 2 more RG's, an AO and a USO to equal 18.

 

[I.Haychew]

Obviously just guessing, but I'll go with one more Australian Open, two more Phrench Opens, and one more Wimbledon.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Obviously just guessing, but I'll go with one more Australian Open, two more Phrench Opens, and one more Wimbledon.

I hope you're right!

 

[Kieran]

One more Wimbledon would make him the only man to win 3 majors on hards, grass and clay.

Add one more Oz and he's the Double Career Slam.

I'd take this, and nothing more, and be very happy to...

 

[tented]

One more Wimbledon would make him the only man to win 3 majors on hards, grass and clay.

I never thought of that. It would be quite an accomplishment, and remain a record for a very long time.

Add one more Oz and he's the Double Career Slam.

I'd take this, and nothing more, and be very happy to...

Yeah, what he said.

 

[rafanoy1992]

One more Wimbledon would make him the only man to win 3 majors on hards, grass and clay.

Add one more Oz and he's the Double Career Slam.

I'd take this, and nothing more, and be very happy to...

That's why I was very disappointed when Nadal injured his back. I wanted Nadal to win the Australian Open so he could achieve the Double Career Slam. Also, I knew this might be his last chance of winning the Australian Open because Djokovic will not lose in the Quarterfinals again next year.

Let's just hope he gets another chance of winning the Australian Open and achieving the Double Career Slam.

 

[Kieran]

One more Wimbledon would make him the only man to win 3 majors on hards, grass and clay.

Add one more Oz and he's the Double Career Slam.

I'd take this, and nothing more, and be very happy to...

That's why I was very disappointed when Nadal injured his back. I wanted Nadal to win the Australian Open so he could achieve the Double Career Slam. Also, I knew this might be his last chance of winning the Australian Open because Djokovic will not lose in the Quarterfinals again next year.

Let's just hope he gets another chance of winning the Australian Open and achieving the Double Career Slam.

He'll just have to go through Djoker, then...

But yeah, that's what was so stunning about Oz, and it took a while before I could believe it...