How long can Novak remain in his prime form?

[El Dude]

According to Tignor's preview of the Indian Wells final, Roger remarked that Novak is "in his prime." This is clearly true, at least looking at the record. While Novak has never reached the heights of his amazing 2011 season, we should remember that 2011 was, by my quick estimation, one of the five or so greatest years in Open Era history - to go along with Laver's 1969, Connors in 1975, McEnroe in 1984, and Federer in 2006 (not to mention 2004 and 2005). So while Novak in 2012-14 wasn't as good as 2011, he has still been playing at a very high, elite level - his peak. His fans certainly hope that 2015 will be his second multi-Slam season, and they have good reason to.

But I bring this up because we talk a lot about the declines of Roger and Rafa, but not much about the other third of the great trinity. Presumably this is because, unlike the other two, there's been no sign of decline yet (except among his most ardent fans, who think his true level is 2011 and anything less is him not playing at his best...hey, every player has their super-biased supporters ;-)). But let us not forget that Novak will be 28 in two months. Even if players are reaching their peaks later, the clock is certainly ticking. It is hard to imagine Novak maintaining his current level for more than two or three more years.

So this is my question: When do you think we'll start seeing signs of decline from Novak and what will it look like? Novak is a very well-rounded player, but is undoubtedly best known for his incredible defense and ability to reach almost anything. Presumably the decline will start when he slows down a bit, even just a fraction. He is in incredible shape, so my guess is that this won't happen for another couple years yet, but that we might start seeing the first glimmers of it sometime in 2017, the year he turns 30.

The other big factor in decline is drive. For players in their 30s, especially with so many accomplishments, this is huge. But considering that Novak has spent so much of his career in the wake of Federer and Nadal, I could see this not being a problem - that he'll desperately want to match them as best he can.

What do you think?

 

[nehmeth]

Novak has been honing his Gumby skills since he was very young - doing all the stretching routines with the eye toward longevity. Over the past few years he's worked on finishing points with expedience and blowing through early matches quickly - where he used to get slogged down earlier in his career. Now with Becker (yes I'm complimenting the the puffy faced one), his serve has become more of a weapon and his volleying (and overhead) have gone from poor to adequate, to something better than that.

All that said to say - hopefully no time soon.

 

[El Dude]

I think he's got a good chance of lasting awhile, nehmeth.

Thinking a bit more on it, I'd predict something like this:

2015-17 (age 28-30): Dominant player in the game, #1
2018-19 (age 31-32): Still one of the best and a top 5 player, but no longer THE player to beat.
2020-22 (age 33-35ish): Still around but noticeably slipping, more in the latter half of the top 10.

Andre Agassi's best year was 1999, which would be the equivalent age-wise to 2016 for Novak. But Andre had missed a lot of time before that and the field was weaker in the late 90s. Anyhow, I mention Andre because the trajectory above is similar.

I could see Novak winning 4-5 more Slams in that first phase (of 11 in the next three years), and then maybe 1 or 2 after that, which would give him 13-15 total.

 

[tented]

Excellent thread, Dude.

I'll add another factor: With Fedal aging out/wearing down, Novak will be able to maintain this level for quite some time, since there's no one coming up behind him who can provide a legitimate challenge on a regular basis.

I know this will be controversial, but Djokovic is entering somewhat of a weak era. Two of the greatest of all time are clearly not what they used to be, and there's certainly no one like them on the horizon, either.

The other member of the Big Four, Murray, hasn't been able to provide a meaningful, even somewhat consistent challenge to the top three for a long time. I'm wondering if he ever will again.

So who is going to beat Novak at, say, Roland Garros once Rafa is no longer able to? He hasn't lost there to anyone not named Nadal or Federer since 2010. He wins AO like clockwork, essentially. His most recent losses at Wimbledon were to Federer and Murray. Which leaves the USO, where most of his losses have been to Nadal, Murray, and Roger.

As long as Novak remains fit and healthy, I think he can continue maintaining this prime form for several years.

 

[Riotbeard]

Excellent thread, Dude.

I'll add another factor: With Fedal aging out/wearing down, Novak will be able to maintain this level for quite some time, since there's no one coming up behind him who can provide a legitimate challenge on a regular basis.

I know this will be controversial, but Djokovic is entering somewhat of a weak era. Two of the greatest of all time are clearly not what they used to be, and there's certainly no one like them on the horizon, either.

The other member of the Big Four, Murray, hasn't been able to provide a meaningful, even somewhat consistent challenge to the top three for a long time. I'm wondering if he ever will again.

So who is going to beat Novak at, say, Roland Garros once Rafa is no longer able to? He hasn't lost there to anyone not named Nadal or Federer since 2010. He wins AO like clockwork, essentially. His most recent losses at Wimbledon were to Federer and Murray. Which leaves the USO, where most of his losses have been to Nadal, Murray, and Roger.

As long as Novak remains fit and healthy, I think he can continue maintaining this prime form for several years.

Is this controversial? I think it's pretty fair. Novak had to win his first 7 or so in a very hard era, now he should more opportunities to plow through. There are a few legit contenders to win a big tournament here or there (Right now: Kei,Stan, Cillic, and maybe Delpo if he gets back to form), but no one realistically appears to be challenging in the way Novak changed the top players in tennis conversation in 2011.

I think we we see a slight dip in the season he turns 30, and has a similar early 30s to federer. He has done a good job taking care of his body, so I don't think we see him fall apart or anything.

 

[nehmeth]

The other big factor in decline is drive. For players in their 30s, especially with so many accomplishments, this is huge. But considering that Novak has spent so much of his career in the wake of Federer and Nadal, I could see this not being a problem - that he'll desperately want to match them as best he can.

This is a major factor. Novak turned pro in 2003 - he started at 16 and has spent his adult life on tour. How do you keep your desire for that long?

I think having a son has added a new purpose/perspective to his career. With the field (as you and tented have stated), less crowded at the top, it could give added motivation to staying around and carving out a larger slice of his own tennis history.

 

[El Dude]

I agree, tented. As I've said before, around 2018-19 two things are going to converge: On one hand, Novak will be older - turning 31 in 2018, 32 in 2019. The other thing is the next young generation is going to be coming into its own, in the 21-22 range: Kyrgios, Coric, Kokkinakis, Chung, Donaldson, Zverev, etc. Maybe none of these is a future great, but chances are that several of them will be excellent players and good enough to take the helm from an "old" Novak.

But for Novak fans there's an interesting window of opportunity for several years, 2015-17, where he has the chance to compile some serious titles. Depending upon if Rafa returns to form or not, he might even have a chance at the Big Kahuna (which I won't name) in one of those years.

On the other hand, last year we saw two surprise Slam winners, so there's a greater chance of a non-Big Four upset in the 2014+ era than there's been in years. Remember that from Rafa's first with at Roland Garros in 2005 until Wawrinka's win at the AO in 2014, there was only ONE non-Big Four Slam winner (del Potro at the USO in 2009). That's 34 of 35 Slams to the Big Four! I suspect that era is ending, or at least breaking up - and Wawrinka and Cilic proved it last year.

All that said, I don't see more than MAYBE one Slam going to a non-Big Four. In 2016 it could be a different story.

 

[tented]

Is this controversial? I think it's pretty fair.

I'm glad you think so, but you never know which fans are going to become apoplectic when faced with the truth. Keep track, for example, of who "likes" my post.

 

[nehmeth]

Is this controversial? I think it's pretty fair.

I'm glad you think so, but you never know which fans are going to become apoplectic when faced with the truth. Keep track, for example, of who "likes" my post.

:snicker
And have the mods keep tally of how many of us (rabid Djokovic fans) push the report button.

 

[tented]

Novak has been honing his Gumby skills since he was very young - doing all the stretching routines with the eye toward longevity.

I'm watching Jelena Jankovic in the women's final -- another limber Gumbian ... I mean, Serbian.

 

[nehmeth]

Happy for my Serbian friends that they didn't have to suffer loss in two finals today.

Novak was on the verge of closing out Roger 2 and 3 until he once again let the crowd get to him. Fed, ever the opportunist pounced and we rode the roller coaster again. I'm looking forward to the day when he is no longer distracted by those things. Will it ever come? :nono Doubtful.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Well, he showed today that he can do so until the end of the final set. :lolz:

 

[DarthFed]

Probably this year and that will be it. He could still be the best player for another couple years for reasons mentioned already, but I'd think his level comes down noticeably by next year. He already has a lot of mileage at 28 even if he hasn't had too many injuries. (Fed for instance went way downhill starting in 2010 in the season he turned 29). I do think Novak is still going to have some success in his 30's like Roger has had.

 

[lacatch]

I have to say that watching (painfully) Nole fail to close it out in two today reminded me of the his dropping the fourth set at Wimbledon last year. On the ESPN broadcast they showed a closeup of his hand holding a bottle of OJ after dropping the second set and it was visibly shaking. In both cases he pulled it out in the end, but still seems to be a lingering symptom of "close-it-out-itis" from which he suffered for a couple of years prior to last year's Wimbledon victory. That is my only hesitation about unequivocally believing that he'll rack up another 5-7 majors in the next several years. But I do think he's got a great shot to at least come close to that.

 

[Kirijax]

If we're going strictly by Grand Slams, Djokovich has the next couple of years to build on his legacy. I think Federer and Nadal might be done in winning Slams (maybe one more for each). So the only things that could eat into Djokovic's Grand Slams would be:

1. Murray finding a second serve.
2. Nishikori and Raonic making that next step up.
3. A totally fresh face to suddenly burst on the scene ala Wilander/Becker style and start challenging Djokovic.

But now is the time Djokovic needs to win the Slams. No more dickering around and ending each season with a single slam. If he wants to get up there in the GOAT topics, now is the time.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I would say that he is in his prime but he is towards on the end of his prime. What I mean is that he still will be the best player in the world but he would not be that dominant. I could be wrong though that he could potentially be dominant in the next couple of years.

But, you gotta remember just like Darth says that he is almost 28 years old (in two months actually). So, his body and reaction will slow down just a little bit. In addition, mentally it will catch up to him little by little in the next couple of years.

It even showed in this year's Australian Open during the semifinals and finals. In both matches, he showed mental stress or fatigue. Luckily, he was able to weather the storm and in a way, his opponents helped him weather the storm

All in all, I think he is still in his prime but he's near the end of it. I would say 2016 is when we see his level drop off just a little bit.

Now, as for slam count, I say he wins 3 or 4 more slams which equals 11 or 12 slams. I just don't see him winning 6 or 7 slams at this point. It's not because of competition or something, it's just when a tennis player reaches the age of 29 or 30 then it will be hard for him to win majors. He would still be the favorite but as he gets older, it will be difficult for him to win majors. Just look at Federer when he became 29 years old. He was still winning matches and titles but it was getting harder for him to win a major. I mean even in that 2012 Wimbledon title run Benneteau outplayed him in the first two sets.

That's why I feel like Djokovic's prime will end after 2016 because that's when his body and mind will start to slow him down a little bit.

 

[Federberg]

I would make a distinction between his being in his prime, and his result output. On that basis I would say that there's no reason for him not to remain in his prime for at least the next 2 - 3 years. He'll have to evolve his game as he loses some speed, but I see no reason why this shouldn't be possible. But the question about whether his result output will stay the same or even accelerate if Tented's putative impending weak era theory is correct. That's speculative, although I have some sympathy with the view. But you never know what's around the corner. Things could easily click for one of the guys we're sceptical of right now.. or more of them. Which could mean that even though Novak's level doesn't drop his result output might decline. I'm happy to sit on the sidelines and watch!

 

[brokenshoelace]

This year and next year as far as being in his absolute prime, but he'll stay the best player in the world after that while slightly declining.

 

[El Dude]

It will be interesting to see who he meets on his way "down." Meaning, at some point as he slowly declines he'll decline enough so that someone not as good as him in his prime meets him and surpasses him. Who will that be? It could be that Milos, Kei, and Grigor are all too old. I think you could argue that at least the first two are peaking right now; there's a feeling that Grigor still has a bit more possible growth. But if Milos and Kei are as good as they'll ever get, it will be sometime, I think, before Novak falls enough to be below them, and by that point--say, 3-4 years--Milos and Kei could be losing ground as well.

But in 4 years from now--when Novak is 31-32--Nick Kyrgios will be 23-24, Borna Coric and Thanasi Kokkinakis 22-23, etc. So if we're talking about a window for Novak, and we're assuming that Andy Murray doesn't find a second serve and Rafael Nadal doesn't return to peak form (which I'm not quite willing to assume, btw), then Novak's window of Slam dominance will be something between 2-4 years, depending upon two factors: How and when Novak fades, and how good and how quickly the next generation rises to peak form. But I personally can't see Novak losing his crown (barring something completely unforeseen) through about 2016 and probably into 2017, but I also can't see it lasting past 2018 or so.

 

[Federberg]

So far as I can see there's no evidence that Raonic is anywhere near peaking. He's improving steadily. Don't think we can say Kei or Dimi are peaking yet either