Have they solved the Shapovalov puzzle?

[scoop]

By Scoop Malinowski

Denis Shapovalov took the ATP by storm last year, by posting shocking wins against Nadal and Del Potro in Montreal and his surreal US Open run all the way to the round of 16 as a qualifer.

But since entering the top 50 last September, the eighteen year old has struggled.

After the US Open, Shapovalov posted two Davis Cup wins vs India (beating Bhambri in five sets and Ramanathan in three).

Then at Shanghai he lost his first match to Triocki 76 36 06.

In Antwerp he lost his first match to Escobedo 67 46.

In Basel, the Canadian lefty managed to beat Sugita 76 in the third but then he lost next round to Mannarino 64 16 26.

At Paris Indoors he lost his first match to Benneteau 46 46.

In the final event of 2017 in Milan at the NEXT GEN Finals, he lost to Rublev and Chung and beat Quinzi in the round robin.

This year, Shapovalov has lost first round at both of his events to Del Potro yesterday in Sydney and 76 67 46 to Edmund in Brisbane.

So since the US Open and the Davis Cup tie vs India, Shapovalov has a 2-8 record.

Yes, there were a lot of narrow, tight losses in those eight defeats but the pattern is becoming evident. Shapovalov, the boy wonder last September, is now mired in a deep slump and has lost his winning touch.

Winning two out of ten matches is cause for concern. And you have to wonder if the other ATP players have conspired to figure out how to offset the explosive six-foot southpaw? Or has the pressure, media attention and great expectations – by himself and the public – jangled his nerves and ability to hit and play freely without fear or worry?

As the losses continue to mount, the questions and concerns will snowball.

Shapovalov’s coach Martin Laurendeau currently doesn’t seem to have the answers. And if Laurendeau wants to stay for the ride much longer, he better come up with some solutions. Sooner than later.

 

[scoop]

Scoop Malinowski writes:

Hartt, thanks for the correction, I forgot Denis beat Silva. But still 3-8 is not good and it's not what we expected after the US Open run of six wins in a row. Melbourne will tell us a lot about where Denis is and where his confidence is. Right now it's safe to say he's struggling.

 

[El Dude]

Haha, the Master of Hyperbole strikes again. Scoop, the kid is 18. I watched his match against Rublev at the Milan tournament and saw enough to be very optimistic about his future. The kid is going to be great.

Tennis players evolve like just about everything else: two steps forward, one step back, pause, one step forward, a step back, stagnation, a big leap forward, etc. In other words, a messy and non-linear affair. And every player develops differently.

My guess is that Shapo is going to consolidate in the top 100 this year, maybe continue struggling a bit, and then take a big leap forward to the top 20 either later this year or early next. But to expect that he would just continue his meteoric rise from last year is unrealistic - especially at 18.

Players need to consolidate at the different "stations" of the game. It is very rare that a player just blasts through each station or level without taking time to consolidate and master it. The first station is the Futures, then its the Challengers and Slam qualifications, then there's a big leap into being a regular in the top 100 and direct entry into Slams, then there's another big leap to the top 30-40 range when you start becoming seeded, then the top 20, then the top 10, top 5, and number one.

Sometimes players jump one station or stage per year, sometimes two, sometimes they stall out. But there's no reason to worry about Shapo. Yet. He could end this year ranked #80 and I wouldn't be too worried. A tad, maybe, but I'd give him the benefit of the doubt and see how he did next year. Pete Sampras finished one year #97, then the next #81...consolidation. Or look at Rafa at #49 and then #51 (I think injury was involved, but that's part of the process). It happens.

Of course the worry is Borna Coric. That's a case where a player seems to max out quickly. Borna can still develop, but clearly his ceiling is a bit lower than hoped for a couple years ago. I see Shapo being a more talented and dynamic player - a future elite, imo.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The figuring out business happened to JJ. Everybody quickly realized that JJ can hit dropshots from anywhere in the court.
So, it became a non-surprise. After that Wimbledon run he has become a non-factor.

With Denis (even though he may be losing - mostly due to enjoying the limelight) it is difficult to say that opponents have
worked out a way to beat him.

I am projecting Shapo to be in Top 32 by the end of the year.

 

[scoop]

Scoop Malinowski writes:

I don't think Nadal or Fed or Djokovic ever had 3-8 slumps in their early ATP years. Although in Facing Federer, Tignor told me he interviewed Fed early in his pro career in 98 or 99 and Fed was really down in confidence at the time from losing matches and he even admitted sarcastically about even having a pro career. I will look up Fed's early results for a 3-8 streak.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

I think every player is unique and could possibly have a unique career path. When I watch Shapovalov, I see raw talent. If he stays on track of development, and imbibes the right elements which are missing in his game, then he will get better.

Who's in his team?

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

Scoop Malinowski writes:

I don't think Nadal or Fed or Djokovic ever had 3-8 slumps in their early ATP years. Although in Facing Federer, Tignor told me he interviewed Fed early in his pro career in 98 or 99 and Fed was really down in confidence at the time from losing matches and he even admitted sarcastically about even having a pro career. I will look up Fed's early results for a 3-8 streak.

Federer definitely had some streaks like that.You can find them here-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer's_early_career#All_matches

 

[El Dude]

First of all, we shouldn't use Roger, Rafa, and Novak as the standard against which all young players are compared. Those are probably the three greatest players in Open Era history.

Secondly, of course they had bad streaks at Shapo's age - he's 18! That's Roger in late 1999 and early 2000. How about this: From the SF of Copenhagen in March of 2000, when Roger was almost exactly the same age as Shapo, through St Poelten in May, Roger went 1-7. Then he managed to reach the 4R of Roland Garros, but then again from the QF of Halle through Gstaad he lost four straight matches.

I'm sure we can find similar results with Novak and Rafa at young ages.

The main thing we want to see from a young player is overall progress. They'll be ups and downs, but as long as the trend is in the right direction - and they don't stall out for years on end at a given station - then all is good.

 

[scoop]

Scoop Malinowski writes:

Shivashish; There is no doubt Shapovalov is a rare talent. To beat Nadal and Delpo at 18 and to vault to the rd of 16 as a qualifier in his first US Open is more impressive than anything the 18 yr old Roger Federer managed to do. He's destined to be a world no. 1 based on what he did last year alone. But there will be adversity and setbacks and losing streaks and trial and errors.

 

[scoop]

Scoop Malinowski writes:

Thanks Wimbledonerer, I saw that Fed lost first round four tourneys in a row. But he got out of it with a Davis Cup win vs Voltchkov. Fed definitely struggled with plenty of adversities early on. They all do, except Rafa really only had that foot injury that forced him to miss his first Roland Garros. Next year he won it.

 

[scoop]

Scoop Malinowski writes:

El Dude, some players shoot up too fast before they are really ready to deal with the life of a star player and all the extra work and obligations and demands. I remember reading one of the parents of a top player felt their son had too much success too soon.

 

[scoop]

Scoop Malinowski writes:

Duke, Djokovic is a wildcard because he's been so inactive and is supposedly hurting (eblow) but he just wiped up the court with Thiem. And Agassi is making the long trip down under to be in Djokovic's corner. It's hard to go against Djokovic but my pick is Kyrgios.

 

[scoop]

Scoop Malinowski writes:

Agree Andrew, Shapovalov could get hot tomorrow and go on a roll and win Australia. When an elite player rocks a major it's hard for that player to get fully up for the small events. I reckon Shapovalov ix that kind of elite player. He will get juiced for Melbourne and raise his level. It's all about peaking for the majors and Shapovalov showed last September that he knows how to do that, already. Kerberer vs Giorgi could be a preview of the Aussie Open second week showdown. Both are red hot right now. The winner of this match, and even the loser, have to be considered leading contenders for Aus Open. Giorgi could be the latest Wawrinka, Sloane, Pennetta. Giorgi is on fire right now. But so is Kerberer.

 

[Moxie]

Do you really think Shapalov could win the AO? He'd have to get through maybe Tsonga early, probably Kyrgios (who you've also pegged for the win, I'm guessing, since he's the next zenith of tennis,) likely Dimitrov and Rafa, just to get out of his half. Are you really feeling that?

 

[El Dude]

If Shapovalov wins the AO, I will not only burn an effigy of Roger Federer and devote myself to Nadalism, but also bow down to the infinite wisdom of Federberg as my lord and master. Might as well sell one of my organs while I’m at it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Do you really think Shapalov could win the AO? ?

He may not win it (more than likely will not win it). But, he is one of the 15 folks with a puncher's chance to win AO
as per the bookies. That itself is a great placement.

 

[Moxie]

He may not win it (more than likely will not win it). But, he is one of the 15 folks with a puncher's chance to win AO
as per the bookies. That itself is a great placement.

I've got nothing against Shapo and I'm pleased for his quick rise to prominence. But if it were my $100, I wouldn't put it on him to win the AO, or a slam this year, tbh. I saw him play PCB live at the USO last Sept. He's very exciting, but also wildly erratic and undisciplined. He lost in 3 tight sets, and the reason it went 3 is that he had no idea of how to handle himself at the business end of the sets. He'll be a far greater player than PCB, imo, but he's got a lot to learn.

 

[scoop]

Scoop Malinowski writes:

Shapovalov is a contender, dark horse contender. But he will need a miraculous run even better than he did at US Open. Kyrgios is the pick if he's at his best and his head is on right. Which I think it finally is.

 

[scoop]

Scoop Malinowski writes:

DeMinaur, like Shapovalov, could do major damage in Melbourne. Or his fuel tank could run out with a tricky tough first round match against an unheralded but motivated opponent. Anything can happen. The unique thing about this year there are so many dangerous landmines for the top players to have to hopscotch through and around. So many young new players and also the players like Coric and Thiem and Sock and Harrison who are starving for a good run in a major.

 

[scoop]

Scoop Malinowski writes:

Winning a major is like winning the lottery. Look at how many obstacles have to be overcome. Even for Fed and Rafa there are still so many obstacles - tough matches, avoiding injury, avoiding on off day, avoiding bad luck, avoiding a regular player suddenly playing like superman.