Has Novak turned the corner against Nadal?

[Kieran]

He won seven in a row, then lost six out of seven. But now he's won the last two matches, strutting about the court grinning like Travis Bickle. Again. Like he used to in 2011.

In their rivalry, there have often been swings in momentum. Have we witnessed another one?

My own view is that Rafa usually plays down the post-US Open schedule, whereas Nole was really up for this. So a demob happy Rafa faced the end of the season more concerned with garnering points, while Nole was trying to reassert his place, and regain pride, which he did successfully. But these results were also surface-relative, and we can't say that such performances will be necessarily replicated on surfaces more favourable to Rafa.

Has Nole made a dent psychologically? Well, he first did that in match #25 in Miami, 2011, Rafa came hunting him but was forced to take second best. Last night was another big match for Rafa, but Nole won. So there could be some currency for saying that at the very least, Nole is not going to back down if they meet in Oz. Therefore, the psychological blow may not affect Rafa - but it will affect Nole.

But will it also affect Rafa? I don't think it should. It didn't in Monte Carlo, and he's been through all this before and knows now how to handle it. The calm, as he calls it. Or resistance, as he called it elsewhere. I expect these to return once the bigger prize is in sight in January.

But who can tell for sure?

 

[Riotbeard]

He won seven in a row, then lost six out of seven. But now he's won the last two matches, strutting about the court grinning like Travis Bickle. Again. Like he used to in 2011.

In their rivalry, there have often been swings in momentum. Have we witnessed another one?

My own view is that Rafa usually plays down the post-US Open schedule, whereas Nole was really up for this. So a demob happy Rafa faced the end of the season more concerned with garnering points, while Nole was trying to reassert his place, and regain pride, which he did successfully. But these results were also surface-relative, and we can't say that such performances will be necessarily replicated on surfaces more favourable to Rafa.

Has Nole made a dent psychologically? Well, he first did that in match #25 in Miami, 2011, Rafa came hunting him but was forced to take second best. Last night was another big match for Rafa, but Nole won. So there could be some currency for saying that at the very least, Nole is not going to back down if they meet in Oz. Therefore, the psychological blow may not affect Rafa - but it will affect Nole.

But will it also affect Rafa? I don't think it should. It didn't in Monte Carlo, and he's been through all this before and knows now how to handle it. The calm, as he calls it. Or resistance, as he called it elsewhere. I expect these to return once the bigger prize is in sight in January.

But who can tell for sure?

Nice to see you taking some Initiative Kieren

I am not sure this has a huge effect on Rafa (although I think he always really wants to win against Novak, no matter the surface, because Novak isn't like Roger, where he can only win regularly on indoor hards, so that confidence boost does matter). I think it has a huge effect on Novak. He is going to be much more confident against Rafa.

IMO Last year, while rafa sat on the sidelines, Novak knew he was the week in, week out big dog against Andy and Fed, so even though it was a lackluster year compared to 2011, he didn't have to work that hard to maintain the year end number 1. Murray is too inconsistent, and Fed too old. This year he got reminded in the worst way what it is to face a consistent rival week-in, week-out, and he got his crown unceremoniously ripped from his head. This fall he began to start remembering what he had to do to knock Nadal from the top after 2010. So in that sense, this is huge for Novak.

The biggest difference between 2011 and 2014 is Nadal knows what Novak is capable of too, and will be ready.

So has Novak turned a corner. I think yes, but I don't think what is around the corner will look quite like 2011 nor like 2012-13 for rafa. At this point, there is too much mutual respect and understanding of the dangers the other man poses. It will be more balanced, but I believe Novak will be top dog next year in terms of slams and rank. That is my feeling.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I think we always have a tendency to look for definitive long term narratives when it comes to these things and it's a bit shortsighted. We want to treat certain results like turning points (read, any time Federer beat Nadal). The truth is, Djokovic and Nadal will just continue to beat one another. Sometimes, one will take a few matches in a row against the other, and it's happened before (including a seven straight for Novak, though I don't think we'll see a similar level of dominance for one over the other), but the other is just too good not to win a few himself. A lot just depends on form, surface, timing, confidence, etc...

 

[Kieran]

Nice to see you taking some Initiative Kieren

Well, you know me, always one for the quiet life. I thought, after all the excitement and feudal wars of the previous nine months, why not a simple thread that should provoke nothing other than agreement and harmony?

uzzled :huh: :lolz:

 

[shawnbm]

Looking at a four year cycle to include 2010, I would say the expectations in the Novak camp are likely higher than they used to be. I think Nole and his crew view the 9-7 loss in Paris as one that slipped away. That one really smarted. All in all, though, it seems Nole is fairly keen with facing off against Nadal--there seems to be little in terms of intimidation there. I can see them going back and forth, but Nole will win more than Rafa over the next three years I personally believe. I think he ends up one of the few who has a winning record against the Spanish Bull. I believe this is because Rafa--if history in any indicator--is going to come up short of last year, likely win maybe half as many titles (that alone would be a great year for him, assuming he takes Paris). Novak could have the same year as this year or even close to it and he would take over number one. I think that will happen and Nole reasserts himself. It is all conjecture, but that is mine.

 

[Kieran]

I think we always have a tendency to look for definitive long term narratives when it comes to these things and it's a bit shortsighted. We want to treat certain results like turning points (read, any time Federer beat Nadal). The truth is, Djokovic and Nadal will just continue to beat one another. Sometimes, one will take a few matches in a row against the other, and it's happened before (including a seven straight for Novak, though I don't think we'll see a similar level of dominance for one over the other), but the other is just too good not to win a few himself. A lot just depends on form, surface, timing, confidence, etc...

I think one thing we can say is self-evident from this rivalry is how much they force each other to improve. Roger never really tackled the problem of how to get down and dirty to chase Rafa away - I think he felt his aesthetically cute game would eventually be appreciated by the barbarian from the island - but Nole put in the hard yards to assert himself and once down, Rafa did the same to get back up again...

 

[Riotbeard]

I think we always have a tendency to look for definitive long term narratives when it comes to these things and it's a bit shortsighted. We want to treat certain results like turning points (read, any time Federer beat Nadal). The truth is, Djokovic and Nadal will just continue to beat one another. Sometimes, one will take a few matches in a row against the other, and it's happened before (including a seven straight for Novak, though I don't think we'll see a similar level of dominance for one over the other), but the other is just too good not to win a few himself. A lot just depends on form, surface, timing, confidence, etc...

I think one thing we can say is self-evident from this rivalry is how much they force each other to improve. Roger never really tackled the problem of how to get down and dirty to chase Rafa away - I think he felt his aesthetically cute game would eventually be appreciated by the barbarian from the island - but Nole put in the hard yards to assert himself and once down, Rafa did the same to get back up again...

"Aestetically cute", Cali is screaming :laydownlaughing

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

He might have turned a corner but it is a winding road, no? A lot more corners ahead, and the same goes for Rafa as well. The only question for me is, Rafa stole one from Nole by winning the USO, where traditionally Nole is better on hards...will Nole eventually steal an RG from Rafa? All the other tournaments they will go back and forth, I think.

 

[Riotbeard]

He might have turned a corner but it is a winding road, no? A lot more corners ahead, and the same goes for Rafa as well. The only question for me is, Rafa stole one from Nole by winning the USO, where traditionally Nole is better on hards...will Nole eventually steal an RG from Rafa? All the other tournaments they will go back and forth, I think.

I think Nole will, but a bigger theft for rafa would be the AO (which in my opinion aint gonna happen). Nole is the 3 times defending champ. He won't give that up lightly.

 

[Front242]

The way I see it all this really proves is not only does Novak possess a large match up advantage against Rafa on indoor hardcourt, he's just plain better than everyone there right now. So in that respect, I think that's all it shows for now. Different courts, different situation and we should really wait to see how they square off against each other on outdoor hardcourts. Maybe we'll see it at the AO unless Andy is back in the mix.

 

[Riotbeard]

The way I see it all this really proves is not only does Novak possess a large match up advantage against Rafa on indoor hardcourt, he's just plain better than everyone there right now. So in that respect, I think that's all it shows for now. Different courts, different situation and we should really wait to see how they square off against each other on outdoor hardcourts. Maybe we'll see it at the AO unless Andy is back in the mix.

He beat rafa on outdoor hards in Beijing...

 

[Front242]

The way I see it all this really proves is not only does Novak possess a large match up advantage against Rafa on indoor hardcourt, he's just plain better than everyone there right now. So in that respect, I think that's all it shows for now. Different courts, different situation and we should really wait to see how they square off against each other on outdoor hardcourts. Maybe we'll see it at the AO unless Andy is back in the mix.

He beat rafa on outdoor hards in Beijing...

Was it Shanghai or Beijing that had a lot of rain and they closed the roof?

 

[Riotbeard]

The way I see it all this really proves is not only does Novak possess a large match up advantage against Rafa on indoor hardcourt, he's just plain better than everyone there right now. So in that respect, I think that's all it shows for now. Different courts, different situation and we should really wait to see how they square off against each other on outdoor hardcourts. Maybe we'll see it at the AO unless Andy is back in the mix.

He beat rafa on outdoor hards in Beijing...

Was it Shanghai or Beijing that had a lot of rain and they closed the roof?

Honestly not sure, but I believe (could be wrong) their match was played outdoors. As I said before it means more for novak's psyche than nadal's, but I don't think Novak's fall can be reduced to merely 1 or 2 wins over rafa. I think it's big for him, it terms of mentality in future matches, but rafa is gonna come out and play his best and make him earn any future titles.

 

[Front242]

The way I see it all this really proves is not only does Novak possess a large match up advantage against Rafa on indoor hardcourt, he's just plain better than everyone there right now. So in that respect, I think that's all it shows for now. Different courts, different situation and we should really wait to see how they square off against each other on outdoor hardcourts. Maybe we'll see it at the AO unless Andy is back in the mix.

He beat rafa on outdoor hards in Beijing...

Was it Shanghai or Beijing that had a lot of rain and they closed the roof?

Honestly not sure, but I believe (could be wrong) their match was played outdoors. As I said before it means more for novak's psyche than nadal's, but I don't think Novak's fall can be reduced to merely 1 or 2 wins over rafa. I think it's big for him, it terms of mentality in future matches, but rafa is gonna come out and play his best and make him earn any future titles.

For sure it's positive, very much so. If he could iron out the lapses in focus he'd be an animal. Fed had similar lapses that he managed to successfully keep it bay much of 2012 but this year he's (Fed) having them after most breaks. No use breaking if you give it right back. Novak too has been that way a bit too much of late. The 3rd set at the US Open was his worst failure this year for me. I hope won't won't see that sort of meltdown next year.

 

[Riotbeard]

The way I see it all this really proves is not only does Novak possess a large match up advantage against Rafa on indoor hardcourt, he's just plain better than everyone there right now. So in that respect, I think that's all it shows for now. Different courts, different situation and we should really wait to see how they square off against each other on outdoor hardcourts. Maybe we'll see it at the AO unless Andy is back in the mix.

He beat rafa on outdoor hards in Beijing...

Was it Shanghai or Beijing that had a lot of rain and they closed the roof?

Honestly not sure, but I believe (could be wrong) their match was played outdoors. As I said before it means more for novak's psyche than nadal's, but I don't think Novak's fall can be reduced to merely 1 or 2 wins over rafa. I think it's big for him, it terms of mentality in future matches, but rafa is gonna come out and play his best and make him earn any future titles.

For sure it's positive, very much so. If he could iron out the lapses in focus he'd be an animal. Fed had similar lapses that he managed to successfully keep it bay much of 2012 but this year he's (Fed) having them after most breaks. No use breaking if you give it right back. Novak too has been that way a bit too much of late. The 3rd set at the US Open was his worst failure this year for me. I hope won't won't see that sort of meltdown next year.

Agreed and he has cut that down a good bit this fall, so it's a start.

 

[Moxie]

He might have turned a corner but it is a winding road, no? A lot more corners ahead, and the same goes for Rafa as well. The only question for me is, Rafa stole one from Nole by winning the USO, where traditionally Nole is better on hards...will Nole eventually steal an RG from Rafa? All the other tournaments they will go back and forth, I think.

I think Nole will, but a bigger theft for rafa would be the AO (which in my opinion aint gonna happen). Nole is the 3 times defending champ. He won't give that up lightly.

Are you being tongue-in-cheek here? Clearly the "bigger theft" would be for anyone to take RG from Rafa. (The media still bring up Soderling every May, and he hasn't even played tennis in 2½ years.)

 

[GameSetAndMath]

At present, 3 different players share the record of maximum number of AO titles.
They are Agassi, Federer and Djokovic.

If Djokovic wins AO again in 2014, he would be the sole one with that record.

That is why, I am rooting for any one other than Novak to win AO 2014.
I don't care who it is, as I said in the other thread, I don't even mind Istomin
winning AO.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Folks, let me remind you all that traditionally AO is supposed to be the
Grand Slam that is more unpredictable. Lot of weirdos have won it in the past.

 

[DarthFed]

GSM, Djokovic will be getting that record and likely win at least 6 when all is said and done and he deserves it. He is the best I've seen at the AO by a good measure.

 

[Moxie]

Folks, let me remind you all that traditionally AO is supposed to be the
Grand Slam that is more unpredictable. Lot of weirdos have won it in the past.

I don't think that's correct. I'm not sure how many "weirdos" have won it in the past, but it bears remembering that until fairly modern times, a lot of players didn't bother to make the long trip Down Under. It has tended to be the French Open with more one-time winners, and players who didn't win at other Majors. Look just at the list of players in the Open Era with 5+ Slams: AO - only Borg and McEnroe never won it. (I think Borg never went.) RG - Sampras, Connors, McEnroe, Edberg, Becker, Djokovic and Newcombe did not/have not yet won at the French.