Has Grigor showed today that he might be the future of tennis ?

[tennisville]

great effort from him but his fitness must improve really .He might finally live up to the hype generated on him in 2009. respect for him for today's performance

 

[Kieran]

You know, I'm not being funny but I was going to put up a sarcastic Dimitrov bandwagon thread. How soon would it begin? And would the customers who bought tickets on Jerzy's bandwagon like now to decamp, and jump upon a new one?

I wouldn't get over-excited. In fact, this match just tells us he played an exceptional match. It doesn't mean he's suddenly super-disciplined and ready to tilt at windmills. Let's leave him stew a while and come back to this thread in six months and you'll find that it's probably the most recent mention of Dimi - and it's on page 107 of the forum...

 

[tennisville]

One match (which he still lost), does not make him the next breakthrough player. Greg definitely has all the tools. What remains to be seen is what he has between his ears and in his heart.

but Federer( the Sampras match) and Rafa(match against Roddick in DC) all had their breakthrough match and so did Murray and Djokovic . So these players must have their breakthrough match some time right. It might very well might have been this one for Dimitrov .

Of course I am not saying he will do well this year but he might win a lot say in 3 or 4 years down the line when the current top players enter their 30s and are past their best

 

[britbox]

A few years ago, I took a look at a horse shown to me by a poster with opinions I have a lot of respect for. The poster was shawnbm and the horse was Grigor Dimitrov. I liked what I saw. This horse was a potential thoroughbred.

Over the last 18 months I've decided the horse isn't going to cut it at the highest level. Today's match was further evidence. Some might say this was a great match by Grigor and proved his undeniable talent. That might be the case, but the bottom line was he didn't get it done when the match was on his racquet. Great champions, or even great champions in the making wouldn't be patting themselves on the back - they'd be furious they didn't close the deal.

My guess is that Grigor will be reasonably happy in the locker room... and that is exactly why he won't be sitting in the winners enclosure any time soon. You can't teach certain intangibles that split the very best from the rest.

 

[the AntiPusher]

A few years ago, I took a look at a horse shown to me by a poster with opinions I have a lot of respect for. The poster was shawnbm and the horse was Grigor Dimitrov. I liked what I saw. This horse was a potential thoroughbred.

Over the last 18 months I've decided the horse isn't going to cut it at the highest level. Today's match was further evidence. Some might say this was a great match by Grigor and proved his undeniable talent. That might be the case, but the bottom line was he didn't get it done when the match was on his racquet. Great champions, or even great champions in the making wouldn't be patting themselves on the back - they'd be furious they didn't close the deal.

My guess is that Grigor will be reasonably happy in the locker room... and that is exactly why he won't be sitting in the winners enclosure any time soon. You can't teach certain intangibles that split the very best from the rest.

Excellent post Baron Britbox.. There is still a lot of work for this young player to become a very special player

 

[El Dude]

You know there's a middle ground here between being the next great player and a huge disappointment. What if Grigor is destined to be more of a top 10 player than top 5? A near-elite ala del Potro, Ferrer, Berdych and Tsonga rather than one of the greatest players of all time like Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic? Or perhaps, even, somewhere between like Murray, Hewitt, or Roddick? It seems a bit absurd to consider anything less than Federer-Nadal-Djokovic status as a disappointment. The same goes for Janowicz; as far as I know no one was expecting that he'd broke through to elite status. He did follow up Paris Masters with a respectable 3R finish at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells (although has faded at Miami and Monte Carlo). Jerzy might not be destined to be an elite player, but he's holding steady at #24 and certainly seems to at least be a regular in the top 20, if not higher.

Back to Dimitrov, I think today's match - and Monte Carlo as a whole, not to mention his recent play - is very encouraging. In that regard I disagree with you, britbox, in thinking that Grigor not winning today is indicative of why he won't be a great player. He's playing Rafael Nadal, who has won Monte Carlo eight years in a row! The simple fact that Grigor was able to take a set from him speaks a lot to his ability.

By the way, here is the list of players who have taken a set from Rafael Nadal in the last nine years at Monte Carlo:

2013 - Grigor Dimitrov (QF)
2012 - None
2011 - Andy Murray (SF)
2010 - None
2009 - Novak Djokovic (F)
2008 - None
2007 - None
2006 - Roger Federer (F)
2005 - Guillermo Coria (F), Richard Gasquet (SF)

That's some pretty good company. Not to mention that Grigor is the only player since 2004 to take a set from Rafa before the SF.

Now we can make three conclusions from this:

1) Nadal was/is off his game
2) Dimitrov played way over his head
3) Dimitrov has broken through to a new level

A fourth possibility is some combination of the above. While I think that could be true, I'd place especial emphasis on 3. I think we've seen enough from Nadal to conclude that he's back, especially at Monte Carlo on his preferred surface and most successful tournament. Even if he's not 2010 Rafa, he's still Rafa. I also think we've seen enough from Grigor of late to think that that this isn't an isolated event. He's been rising up the rankings somewhat consistently all year and now stands at #27.

Now while I think Grigor's breakthrough is legit, I think we still have to wait and see how he does during the next three Slams. He still hasn't made it past the 2R at a Slam. Even a 3R or 4R exit would indicate a significant jump.

So for me the question isn't if Grigor has improved or is breaking through, but to what degree - and how high he'll go. Will he hold steady and finish in the top 30, rise to the top 20, or even come close to the top 10? I personally think (or at least hope) that he'll work his way into the top 20 and finish the year somewhere in the 10-20 range, and fight next year for a spot in the top 10. Given that Murray and Djokovic will be turning 27 next year, the age at which most players take a slight step back, and Rafa will be turning 28, I think the chances that someone other than the Big Four winning a Slam will increase, so Grigor's window opens up more in 2014 and beyond. But will he be great? Probably not, but he could be very, very good, and among a handful of players that vie for Slams in the post-peak Federer/Nadal/Djokovic/Murray of 2014 and beyond, and until the next truly great players emerge.

 

[britbox]

You know there's a middle ground here between being the next great player and a huge disappointment. What if Grigor is destined to be more of a top 10 player than top 5? A near-elite ala del Potro, Ferrer, Berdych and Tsonga rather than one of the greatest players of all time like Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic? Or perhaps, even, somewhere between like Murray, Hewitt, or Roddick? It seems a bit absurd to consider anything less than Federer-Nadal-Djokovic status as a disappointment. The same goes for Janowicz; as far as I know no one was expecting that he'd broke through to elite status. He did follow up Paris Masters with a respectable 3R finish at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells (although has faded at Miami and Monte Carlo). Jerzy might not be destined to be an elite player, but he's holding steady at #24 and certainly seems to at least be a regular in the top 20, if not higher.

Back to Dimitrov, I think today's match - and Monte Carlo as a whole, not to mention his recent play - is very encouraging. In that regard I disagree with you, britbox, in thinking that Grigor not winning today is indicative of why he won't be a great player. He's playing Rafael Nadal, who has won Monte Carlo eight years in a row! The simple fact that Grigor was able to take a set from him speaks a lot to his ability.

By the way, here is the list of players who have taken a set from Rafael Nadal in the last nine years at Monte Carlo:

2013 - Grigor Dimitrov (QF)
2012 - None
2011 - Andy Murray (SF)
2010 - None
2009 - Novak Djokovic (F)
2008 - None
2007 - None
2006 - Roger Federer (F)
2005 - Guillermo Coria (F), Richard Gasquet (SF)

That's some pretty good company. Not to mention that Grigor is the only player since 2004 to take a set from Rafa before the SF.

Now we can make three conclusions from this:

1) Nadal was/is off his game
2) Dimitrov played way over his head
3) Dimitrov has broken through to a new level

A fourth possibility is some combination of the above. While I think that could be true, I'd place especial emphasis on 3. I think we've seen enough from Nadal to conclude that he's back, especially at Monte Carlo on his preferred surface and most successful tournament. Even if he's not 2010 Rafa, he's still Rafa. I also think we've seen enough from Grigor of late to think that that this isn't an isolated event. He's been rising up the rankings somewhat consistently all year and now stands at #27.

Now while I think Grigor's breakthrough is legit, I think we still have to wait and see how he does during the next three Slams. He still hasn't made it past the 2R at a Slam. Even a 3R or 4R exit would indicate a significant jump.

So for me the question isn't if Grigor has improved or is breaking through, but to what degree - and how high he'll go. Will he hold steady and finish in the top 30, rise to the top 20, or even come close to the top 10? I personally think (or at least hope) that he'll work his way into the top 20 and finish the year somewhere in the 10-20 range, and fight next year for a spot in the top 10. Given that Murray and Djokovic will be turning 27 next year, the age at which most players take a slight step back, and Rafa will be turning 28, I think the chances that someone other than the Big Four winning a Slam will increase, so Grigor's window opens up more in 2014 and beyond. But will he be great? Probably not, but he could be very, very good, and among a handful of players that vie for Slams in the post-peak Federer/Nadal/Djokovic/Murray of 2014 and beyond, and until the next truly great players emerge.

I don't really disagree with too much you've written and can envisage Dimitrov being a Top 16 player, maybe even more... but that's a slightly different proposition than the OP's question on whether he is the future of tennis... Today, rather confirmed to me that he isn't but some look at it totally differently.

 

[Kieran]

Jerzy might not be destined to be an elite player, but he's holding steady at #24 and certainly seems to at least be a regular in the top 20, if not higher.

Jerzy-itis is hard to shake, eh? The guy is 24 in the world so that means he's "at least a regular in the top 20, if not higher."

I think it's a good analysis of Dimitri, but - it's one match.

Which he lost.

The rule of thumb multiplied by the law of averages, divided by pie and subtracted from a piece of cake suggests that Nadal would have a match like this every nine years at his favourite tourney. Those aren't my stats! They're in Nate Silver's new book!

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

One match (which he still lost), does not make him the next breakthrough player. Greg definitely has all the tools. What remains to be seen is what he has between his ears and in his heart.

"which he still lost" is the point here. Grigor's showing some promising signs, but this match is yet another instance of him crumbling under the pressure v the big guys. i guess it's a step in the right direction since he did take a set and didn't df it away like he did v Novak and Murray. and there's worse things than losing to Rafa in MC, Novak on slow hards and Andy on slow hards/in Miami.

still, he lost, so i don't see anything to get too excited about.

 

[Denis]

One match (which he still lost), does not make him the next breakthrough player. Greg definitely has all the tools. What remains to be seen is what he has between his ears and in his heart.

"which he still lost" is the point here. Grigor's showing some promising signs, but this match is yet another instance of him crumbling under the pressure v the big guys. i guess it's a step in the right direction since he did take a set and didn't df it away like he did v Novak and Murray. and there's worse things than losing to Rafa in MC, Novak on slow hards and Andy on slow hards/in Miami.

still, he lost, so i don't see anything to get too excited about.

He took a set of Rafa. On clay. At Monte Carlo. Not even Federer has ever accomplished that.

Dimitrov is fun to watch, I wish him good results in the future.

edit: woops, Federer did take a set of Rafa I see now. They are par then!

 

[El Dude]

Kieran, I didn't phrase that correctly and didn't edit - I obviously Jerzy isn't top 20 yet, but I think he will be. It should read something like "seems to be destined to be top 20."

Britbox, I hear you. I too think it is too soon to call him "the future of tennis" but my point is that even if he isn't the "future of tennis" he could still be a very good player, even a Slam winner. He doesn't need to be the next Federer (which he almost certainly won't be) to be a great player.

And again, let me remind everyone that he lost a match to the greatest clay court player ever at his most successful clay court tournament. And he took a set from him! I'd feel pretty good about that if I was Grigor, and I think that feeling good about it won't necessarily lead to resting on his laurels but could breed confidence.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I have been watching him for a while and I have always liked what I saw, but later on came to the conclusion that he was suffering from what is commonly known as "potentialitis"...It is sometimes curable when caught early, but in Grigor's case, it is very close to being chronic. I hope he can overcome it. He has the tools, but the head and the heart are still debatable.

 

[El Dude]

Nehmeth, read my long post above. I posted all the times during Rafa's win streak that he's lost a set. This was Rafa's sixth set lost in the last nine years.

 

[Denis]

He took a set of Rafa. On clay. At Monte Carlo. Not even Federer has ever accomplished that.

I think Fed took a set off him when they played Monte Carlo final in 2006.

http://legacy.tennis.com/livescores/head2head.aspx?id1=48262&id2=47591

yes, I just edited my post. Saw El Dude's post. Rafa's achievements at MC are just incredible. I do think taking a set of him here is a very very good result. He can take confidence from it.

 

[Kieran]

I'd feel pretty good about that if I was Grigor, and I think that feeling good about it won't necessarily lead to resting on his laurels but could breed confidence.

We'll see. And don't mind me, I just found the whole Jerzy bandwagon thingy to be hilarious. The guy has a few marbles rolling round his tennis bag. Whether he'll ever scoop them up and slot them back home is open to debate.

Dimitrov can take confidence from this is a start, but I'm sure the picture will be clearer six months down the line...

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

I think overall his record this year is a vast improvement over years before. I think he is making steps in the right direction. I think he will probably need at least a year and some change to form into a great player if he is ever going to develop into a player that can win a slam. Improving his fitness will also be key in making a play for the top.

 

[BalaryKar]

It would have seconded Britbox even if Grigor had won today. Look, Rosol took out Nadal in entirety and a grandslam and at Wimbledon at that too. I expect that players like Grigor to take a set or two from the top echelons. It does not make them "arrive". Talent is not about the half-glass argument, it is about gulping down the entire beer mug

 

[Kieran]

Talent is not about the half-glass argument, it is about gulping down the entire beer mug

And I bet you're very talented then, as am I!

 

[BalaryKar]

Talent is not about the half-glass argument, it is about gulping down the entire beer mug

And I bet you're very talented then, as am I!

Unfortunately for me I am a teetotaler So you win there

 

[Kieran]

Talent is not about the half-glass argument, it is about gulping down the entire beer mug

And I bet you're very talented then, as am I!

Unfortunately for me I am a teetotaler So you win there

You win in wisdom, my friend...