Grigor Has Arrived (Umm...Maybe?)

[El Dude]

Let's talk about Dimitrov because, in a way, he's the subtly big story. If he can sustain what he did today against Rafa, I think he's going to have a very good next few years and take the crown of best of his generation. He displayed a level and range of play that Milos Raonic just can't touch, and Kei has only shown in glimpses. In other words, this Grigor is better than those two.

I can't remember who said it--I think it was herios or Haelfix--but a few years ago someone had the theory that Grigor would take a while to find his peak form because his game has a lot of "moving parts" - it is very complex, not unlike Roger's (although clearly without the true level of mastery and finesse that only Roger has). Now it looked like Grigor was finally coming into his own a few years ago in 2014, when he was 22-23 and broke into the top 10, including a Slam SF and QF, three titles, a 74% record, and a year-end ranking of #11. But he dropped back in 2015 and 2016 and it looked like he wouldn't be more than a top 20 player.

But I'm hopeful now that he's taken a step forward, beyond even his 2014 form. The player we saw vs. Rafa can beat almost anyone on tour, especially as the Big Four go deeper into their 30s. Grigor turns 26 this year, so is in his prime, but no longer very young. But he is four years younger than Andy and Novak, and five younger than Rafa, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him win a few Masters and a Slam or two over the next few years. At the least, he'll be very interesting to watch.

 

[Mile]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

nobody arrived, old guard is back

 

[DarthFed]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Still too early to say that. He had one decent slam run and though he mostly played well today he still leaves with nothing. And if he ends up being the best of his generation...well that's not a huge feat if we are being honest.

 

[El Dude]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Or both are true, because Grigor definitely showed a new level that should be competitive with the best. And when you say "old guard is back," that clearly has a time limit to it. We'll see how long they can play like this.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

I'd like to withhold judgement for a bit. We've seen plenty of players put together a good run and losing a close match, and not really go anywhere from that.

Now, Dimitrov clearly has the goods. And Wawrinka lost that tight match against Djokovic at the AO, then came back a year later and won the title. So I'm hoping that this represents a breakthrough for Dimitrov, as I like his game.

I do think he could be one of those players to sneak a slam or two as the "Big 4" dominance declines and the young guns aren't quite there yet.

 

[El Dude]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Still too early to say that. He had one decent slam run and though he mostly played well today he still leaves with nothing. And if he ends up being the best of his generation...well that's not a huge feat if we are being honest.

True. As I've said before, it is the worst four-year gap of players (b. 1989-92) since the gap between Laver (b. 1938) and Ashe (b. 1943), or 1939-42. And actually, with Zverev born in 1997, there's a solid chance that no great players will have born in the decade after Novak (b. 1987), unless Dominic Thiem (b. 1993) surprises or Nick Kyrgios (b. 1995) grows up. But Grigor at least makes it a bit more interesting.

 

[Carol]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

For the first time talking about the younger players I have the confidence to say that a player named Dimitrov who could win a GS before the others though there are a couple of them still much younger than him like Zverev and Kyrgios ( I don't have too much hope about this last one). But at the end many thing can happen like we have seen before

 

[DarthFed]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

One also has to consider what we are seeing at the top right now kind of mirrors what went on when Pete and Andre got old in the late 90's. There is a void at the top right now due to Roger, Novak, and Rafa all being past their primes and so you may see a bunch of new faces the next few years until the next dominant force steps up. As great as Grigor played we have to remember he would've faced Nole in the 4th round, so if this was last year we'd be talking about Dimitrov being gone in the 4th round and no one would be talking about him...but Nole is now showing major chinks in the armor and the door was left open.

 

[Mile]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

I would add Dimitrov to group of Jerzy Janowicz and Kyrgios. Oldy but un-goldy (they still cant enter A-Rod train). Similar also in born group, cant pass elders, and youth are comming on the spot (Zverev, Thiem).

Would say (Fedal & Norray) made huge Lost Generation.

 

[El Dude]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Well, at the least I think Grigor will slot into the top ten with Kei and Milos, replacing old guard second tier players like Tsonga, Berdych and Ferrer. Unlike those older guys, Grigor will still be in his prime when the Big Four are decrepit. I remember saying a few years ago that maybe a 23-year old Grigor can't beat a 27-year old Novak, but a 28-year old Grigor can probably beat a 32-year old Novak.

 

[Puppet Master]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Dimitrov will be the next new #1, I can almost guarantee it. I think that later on, like the beginning of 2018-2019 the big 4 will massively fall off and we will have Dimitrov, Thiem, Raonic, Zverev and Nishikori battling for all the titles, only intercepted at times by one of the big 4. Dimitrov seems to have the most game out of all of them, and Vallvredu has done something incredible, like Norman has for Wawrinka. He has transformed him
I listened to quite a few interviews by Dimi this month and he describes it as Vallvredu simplifying his game, which I found interesting.
He seems like the next logical step. Thiem's inconsistency and tendency to ballbash when he gets tight will never let him amass enough points to be the #1. He can get close however. Raonic is 196 cm tall, no discussion of him being #1. Also very injury prone. He would lose his #1 ranking the week after he gets it. Has the ability to snatch a slam.
Nishikori is a bit of a headcase, too fragile and with no reliable serve, he won't do much better than he is doing now. Zverev, even taller than Raonic, no way, but can snatch a slam if the stars allign.
Might seem a bit bold, but to me this seems very reasonable.

 

[DarthFed]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Dimitrov will never be #1. Out of the guys who might become great but aren't there yet I think Zverev has the most potential to become a dominant player. Aside from him, I don't see anyone on tour at the moment that has much of a chance of becoming a major force.

 

[Fiero425]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Dimitrov will be the next new #1, I can almost guarantee it. I think that later on, like the beginning of 2018-2019 the big 4 will massively fall off and we will have Dimitrov, Thiem, Raonic, Zverev and Nishikori battling for all the titles, only intercepted at times by one of the big 4. Dimitrov seems to have the most game out of all of them, and Vallvredu has done something incredible, like Norman has for Wawrinka. He has transformed him
I listened to quite a few interviews by Dimi this month and he describes it as Vallvredu simplifying his game, which I found interesting.
He seems like the next logical step. Thiem's inconsistency and tendency to ballbash when he gets tight will never let him amass enough points to be the #1. He can get close however. Raonic is 196 cm tall, no discussion of him being #1. Also very injury prone. He would lose his #1 ranking the week after he gets it. Has the ability to snatch a slam.
Nishikori is a bit of a headcase, too fragile and with no reliable serve, he won't do much better than he is doing now. Zverev, even taller than Raonic, no way, but can snatch a slam if the stars allign.
Might seem a bit bold, but to me this seems very reasonable.

I'm so done with Grigor who's been teasing us for years with his style of play, but never enough between the ears to finish! With all that talent, supposedly he's never had a 10 match winning streak! Who's he losing to; total nobodies, not just the elite! He can have match point and find a way to squander it; no lead he has is safe! I passed out when he was up a break in the 5th; should have known he couldn't hold it! :nono :dodgy: :cover

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Yeah, Dimi will be a force to reckon with from now on. You have to infer well when you hear sensible words of development and improvement from a player. I was impressed with his game today, his points, also his AO campaign. Everything has been pretty good so far. And I for one do believe he will continue like this. This year he will be great in masters series I would think. Will cause some upsets to the big 4 maybe. Grass could be great for him but I will keep it for Roger hehe.

 

[DarthFed]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

In fairness he was never up a break in the 5th set. I thought he held it together mentally pretty well. The only small complaint is that he didn't get a decent return in play on the 2 break points at 4-3 but Rafa still deserves credit for taking control of those points and finishing them at net. Dimitrov didn't choke that match away at all.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Dimitrov will be the next new #1, I can almost guarantee it. I think that later on, like the beginning of 2018-2019 the big 4 will massively fall off and we will have Dimitrov, Thiem, Raonic, Zverev and Nishikori battling for all the titles, only intercepted at times by one of the big 4. Dimitrov seems to have the most game out of all of them, and Vallvredu has done something incredible, like Norman has for Wawrinka. He has transformed him
I listened to quite a few interviews by Dimi this month and he describes it as Vallvredu simplifying his game, which I found interesting.
He seems like the next logical step. Thiem's inconsistency and tendency to ballbash when he gets tight will never let him amass enough points to be the #1. He can get close however. Raonic is 196 cm tall, no discussion of him being #1. Also very injury prone. He would lose his #1 ranking the week after he gets it. Has the ability to snatch a slam.
Nishikori is a bit of a headcase, too fragile and with no reliable serve, he won't do much better than he is doing now. Zverev, even taller than Raonic, no way, but can snatch a slam if the stars allign.
Might seem a bit bold, but to me this seems very reasonable.

I'm so done with Grigor who's been teasing us for years with his style of play, but never enough between the ears to finish! With all that talent, supposedly he's never had a 10 match winning streak! Who's he losing to; total nobodies, not just the elite! He can have match point and find a way to squander it; no lead he has is safe! I passed out when he was up a break in the 5th; should have known he couldn't hold it! :nono :dodgy: :cover

He is a different player now. He made it to a semis and played a great match against Rafa with his one-handed backhand. He played brilliantly today and the match could have gone either way with some points here and there. I can say that his game has beefed up, certainly. Now he won't be losing to nobodies. He will be a part of the elite. You will see.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

In fairness he was never up a break in the 5th set. I thought he held it together mentally pretty well. The only small complaint is that he didn't get a decent return in play on the 2 break points at 4-3 but Rafa still deserves credit for taking control of those points and finishing them at net. Dimitrov didn't choke that match away at all.

Come on, these are mere mortals. Even Roger or Rafa slack off at times. All humans.

 

[El Dude]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Dimitrov will be the next new #1, I can almost guarantee it. I think that later on, like the beginning of 2018-2019 the big 4 will massively fall off and we will have Dimitrov, Thiem, Raonic, Zverev and Nishikori battling for all the titles, only intercepted at times by one of the big 4. Dimitrov seems to have the most game out of all of them, and Vallvredu has done something incredible, like Norman has for Wawrinka. He has transformed him
I listened to quite a few interviews by Dimi this month and he describes it as Vallvredu simplifying his game, which I found interesting.
He seems like the next logical step. Thiem's inconsistency and tendency to ballbash when he gets tight will never let him amass enough points to be the #1. He can get close however. Raonic is 196 cm tall, no discussion of him being #1. Also very injury prone. He would lose his #1 ranking the week after he gets it. Has the ability to snatch a slam.
Nishikori is a bit of a headcase, too fragile and with no reliable serve, he won't do much better than he is doing now. Zverev, even taller than Raonic, no way, but can snatch a slam if the stars allign.
Might seem a bit bold, but to me this seems very reasonable.

I like your speculation here, PM. As Darth said above, and I have said elsewhere, we're going to enter a period similar to the late 90s to early 00s. As Pete's reign was beginning to break up in 1998, and before Roger firmly took the reins in early 2004, fully 11 players were #1 in the six-year period from 1998-2003: Sampras, Agassi, Rios, Moya, Kafelnikov, Kuerten, Safin, Rafter, Hewitt, Ferrero, and Roddick. If we want to extend that a couple years to 1996, we can add Muster's name to the roster, or a year later and we add Federer, so that we have 13 players from nine years, 1996-2004 (but 11 players in six years sounds more impressive).

So in my view, Dimitrov will be one of many in the mix for time at #1, but it probably won't be this year. Andy and Novak just have too many points on the board and unless they completely collapse, will be holding the 1-2 spot at least until after Wimbledon, if not all year. But I think the gap will shrink so that by early 2018, the #1 spot will be up for grabs and tossed around for a few years like a hot potato.

Let's fast forward 3-5 years and assume the Big Four have faded from #1 consideration. Even then I don't see any young players who are likely to be totally dominant, so we might see a similar passing around of the #1, but by a group of players born in the mid-to-late 90s. We might not have a truly dominant player for another 5+ years.

 

[Fiero425]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

In fairness he was never up a break in the 5th set. I thought he held it together mentally pretty well. The only small complaint is that he didn't get a decent return in play on the 2 break points at 4-3 but Rafa still deserves credit for taking control of those points and finishing them at net. Dimitrov didn't choke that match away at all.

This may have not been a choke, but he still couldn't finish! I will never bet on him beating the elites again; esp. after a loss to Murray over the summer with 2 breaks up in 2nd and 3rd set of their match! The man has every shot in the book, but it does him little good! Making a SF in a major every couple years won't get him to the status of other notable "also-rans" like Gasquet, Berdych, Ferrer, and Tsonga! He'll always be derisively called "Baby Fed" by me! I'm looking towards the next generation of players like Zverev, Thiem, & Pouille! :angel: :dodgy: :clap

 

[Puppet Master]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

In fairness he was never up a break in the 5th set. I thought he held it together mentally pretty well. The only small complaint is that he didn't get a decent return in play on the 2 break points at 4-3 but Rafa still deserves credit for taking control of those points and finishing them at net. Dimitrov didn't choke that match away at all.

This may have not been a choke, but he still couldn't finish! I will never bet on him beating the elites again; esp. after a loss to Murray over the summer with 2 breaks up in 2nd and 3rd set of their match! The man has every shot in the book, but it does him little good! Making a SF in a major every couple years won't get him to the status of other notable "also-rans" like Gasquet, Berdych, Ferrer, and Tsonga! He'll always be derisively called "Baby Fed" by me! I'm looking towards the next generation of players like Zverev, Thiem, & Pouille! :angel: :dodgy: :clap

Today definitely wasn't a choke, I may be wrong but I think since the second set, Rafa wasn't able to break Grigor's serve at all. Or maybe he did once. Obviously until 4-4 in the fifth. Rafa isn't the best returner of all time, but this is a pretty surprising stat. This to me just showed how badly he wanted to win. A small lapse in concentration after 8172626272 consecutive holds of serve, and then almost breaking Nadal back, who was clutcher than hell today, that is quite the feat. As I said before, I am very proud of him, and god bless Vallvredu. He is a magician.