Gambles: Monte Carlo

[britbox]

bet365 offering on outright win

Djokovic 1.61
Murray 8
Nadal 9
Federer 9.5
Wawrinka 13
Raonic 21
Thiem 26
Berdych 26

If you move against Djokovic there are a few good value bets there I think... even staying with Djokovic isn't too bad at 1.61

I'd avoid Murray because he isn't winning this outright and I don't think Federer is either. Take Berdych out of the picture also.

Leaves Nadal 9, Wawrinka 13, Raonic 21, Thiem 26. If I was betting against Djokovic I'd be tempted to lay on Nadal, Wawrinka and Thiem.

 

[Bert]

I took Thiem @31 on Unibet. I put 1$ on him. He should play Nadal, Wawrinka, Murray and Djokovic. Odds against Nadal and Wawrinka should be pretty even and even if Murray and Djokovic will be given as favourite against him, odds should not be too low. That means taking Thiem @31 should allow to bet on Nadal, Waw, Murray and Djokovic and make some money.

That's the plan

 

[britbox]

Sounds good bert - although I'm going to leave Murray out of the equation. I think I'll go fairly small on Nadal, Stan and Thiem.

 

[britbox]

Took Simon over Troicki in R1

 

[Bert]

I think Kuznetsov will win against Chardy but odds are very short and playing in Monaco may be an extra motivation for the French. First game on clay for both. Looks pretty sure for Kuz but odds are not exciting enough.
For Simon - Troicki stats may look a bit too good for Simon IMO : he leads 5-0 against Troicki but last match was 5 years ago and but he didn't show much this season and this seems to me a bit risky compared to the short odds.

Will wait for tomorrow to bet some money.

 

[britbox]

Outside of Sydney, Troicki has been pretty flakey too. I tend to think players like Simon and Goffin are guys he doesn't enjoy playing and he can beat himself.

 

[Bert]

Agree. I like looking at H2H records as sometimes it gives a good indication on how a player can be unable to find the key against another one. 5-0 without having ever won a set is a pretty good indication that he doesn't like Simon's game

 

[Bert]

There is one very tempting bet today : Cervantes-Paire. Paire has been really disappointing this season : 7w / 10l including 6 losses against players outside Top50. The only significant win is Wawrinka in 3 sets in Marseille, all other were people outside Top50. Cervantes is ranked #56 and clay is his best surface. They played 4 times against each other and all went in 3 sets. Cervantes @ 2.45 is very, very tempting

 

[britbox]

Paire squeaked it in a deciding tie-break - tough one!

I had Veseley to beat Gabasvilli which has just come in (another close one) and have Fognini and Goffin to win.

 

[britbox]

Fognini might be the bigger risk as he's just coming back.

 

[Bert]

Yes hard to know what's his fitness level. But his records against Lorenzi are very good

 

[britbox]

Just placed an in-match bet on Herbert at @3.75 - not bad odds considering they are tied in the third.

 

[Bert]

Good idea. I think I will have all wrong in my pre-match analysis so maybe limit myself in live betting tonight There are days you feel this is not your day

 

[britbox]

Well, Murray has just broken... so it's probably going to go against me... but I do like the in-match betting - gives you a chance to get a feel for the matchup and how they are playing. I nearly cashed out Veseley earlier with a loss but hung in there and he came good.

 

[Bert]

I am tempted by a combined bet today (I try to avoid these but this is very tempting with today's odds) :
Berdych + Nadal + Thiem + Zverev + Monfils = 2.08

Seems a good one to pick. What do you think ?

 

[britbox]

Don't know if you went for it... but the odds still seemed a little low even with the hindsight of Berdych losing.

 

[Bert]

Yes went for it without Zverev who seemed to me less sure than the other ones... bad day.

I am curious to see the odds for Nadal-Thiem tomorrow. Who will be set as the favourite ?

 

[britbox]

Yes went for it without Zverev who seemed to me less sure than the other ones... bad day.

I am curious to see the odds for Nadal-Thiem tomorrow. Who will be set as the favourite ?

I would think Nadal would be favourite... even if he isn't early by the weight of money that ends up backing him. You might want to wait until last minute to get the best odds on Thiem.

 

[britbox]

...but very interesting clash. I'm looking forward to watching it... I probably won't bet on it.

 

[Bert]

...but very interesting clash. I'm looking forward to watching it... I probably won't bet on it.

Yes will be a great match to watch... not easy to pick a winner.