Felix Auger-Aliassime: 0-6 in ATP Finals

[El Dude]

Felix Auger-Aliassime has now lost six finals in a row--his first six such appearances--a rather unusual and dubious achievement. How does that match up with Open Era Slam winners?

Here is a list of all Open Era Slam winners* and the final they won their first title in.

1st: Djokovic, Sampras, Edberg, Becker, Courier, Kuerten, Smith, Nastase, Kafelnikov, Hewitt, Safin, Orantes, Edmondson, Panatta, Teacher, Cash, Chang, Stich, Muster, Krajicek, Moya, Johansson, Ferrero, Roddick, del Potro, Cilic.
2nd: Nadal, Agassi, McEnroe, Kodes, Murray, Wawrinka, Kriek, Rafter, Gerulaitis, Noah, Gomez, Thiem.
3rd: Federer, Lendl, Wilander, Vilas, Bruguera, Ivanisevic, Costa, Gaudio.
4th: Connors.
5th: Borg, Tanner, Korda.
6th+: None.


*I'm not including players who had a chunk of their careers before the Open Era, like Laver, Rosewall, Newcombe, Ashe, Gimeno, etc.

OK, let's do the same list for Slam-less players who have won a big title over the last 30 years (1990-20):

1st: Khachanov, Sock, Berdych, Ljubicic, Davydenko, Coria, A Medvedev, Pavel, Norman, Rusedski, Rios, Enqvist, Carretero, Novacek, Sanchez, Forget, Rosset, Chesnokov.
2nd: D Medvedev, Isner, Dimitrov, Tsonga, Ferrer, Nalbandian, Robredo, Canas, Henman, Ferreira, Gomez, Aguilera.
3rd: Zverev, Fognini, Tsitsipas, Soderling, Mantilla, Portas, Corretja, Woodruff, Pernfors, Massu.
4th: Haas, Grosjean, Philippoussis.
...
10th: Pioline.

What does this mean? Maybe nothing. Statistics like this tend to be subject to random chance and not necessarily indicative of future career performance. For instance, it took Bjorn Borg five tries to win a final, and many lesser players did it in far less.

But it is interesting in that it means that if FAA wins a Slam--and I think he will, probably several--then he'll be the first Slam winner of the Open Era to go 0-6 (or more) in his first title finals. Of big title winners of the last 30 years, only Cedric Pioline took longer.

 

[tented]

Here’s a breakdown of his timeline:

 

[Moxie]

I did think about this ignominious distinction when he lost on Sunday, but he's only barely 20, and who was the last teenager to win a title? I see that Shapo won his first (and to date only) last October, at 20. Looks like Kyrgios won his first at 20. Maybe we turn the question on its head and ask how many players at his age have made so many finals, particularly in recent years? I'm not that worried about FAA...he's too young to feel snake-bit in finals. Plus, look at that spread across surfaces.

 

[Jelenafan]

At the time of the shut down I had posted that I was most curious about how 2 players in particular would come back , Medvedev, who had been struggling with his consistency and Felix. Namely my interest was that Felix seemed to be still filling/slightly bulking out his body, gaining the weight of both build and shot. ( We've commented how we were surprised Felix is actually 6'-4"). So without going through painful losses, how Felix could physically mature during the hiatus. Coming back Felix still seems somewhat physically overmatched with the big boys.

FAA has been compared to Roger, as in great court movement/touch, versatility , etc and he does seem adept in all surfaces but Felix isn't really Federelike in one aspect, Federer had coiled strength particularly in his FH, even in his late teens. witness his memorable win over Sampras over Wimbledon grass as a 19 year old.

Watching Felix play Zverev in Cologne, it reminded me that as a 19/20 year old Zverev was already had more weight of shot than Felix has now.

Of course time may take care of that. Again, I'm not saying that Felix has to physically mature at the same rate vis-a-vis Zverev/Federer and others. He's his own person. I'm just wondering if and when that will actually happen, and that concerns me more than just making it to 6 straight finals without winning.

 

[Andy22]

this is really bad stat for FFA his like little girl mentality and most likely ends up with career stats same as Monfils whos 10-21 in Atp finals, FFA by far the worst of next gen players right now.

 

[Ricardo]

FAA is very much overrated in this forum. He has some of the best technique, superb movement and pretty good touch. However he has shown that he doesn't know how to win when it counts.......and that's what seperates the very good from the greats. So often in tense stage of the match, he makes an extra error, can't win that key point, and ended up losing....or he simply underperforms in any particular big match. This is where Rafa trumps everyone, he so often squeezes out a win without always looking like the better player. Such championship quality is usually by nature, as it's hard to develop. Despite what people say, Kyrgios is like that, as he rises to the occasion when he really wants it. (obviously some other qualities in him are missing hence the result).

FAA won't be an all time like many here have predicted. He looks better than he actually is, overall.

 

[Ricardo]

FAA has been compared to Roger, as in great court movement/touch, versatility , etc and he does seem adept in all surfaces but Felix isn't really Federelike in one aspect, Federer had coiled strength particularly in his FH, even in his late teens. witness his memorable win over Sampras over Wimbledon grass as a 19 year old.

you are setting a pretty high bar in comparing Fed's fh, as it's the most penetrating fh you can ever find. He had a very wicked fh in his younger days, now it's still a weapon and still looks good, but has lost some of the oomph. FAA's fh, though very strong, will never be such a wicked point finisher like young Roger's.

 

[El Dude]

I did think about this ignominious distinction when he lost on Sunday, but he's only barely 20, and who was the last teenager to win a title? I see that Shapo won his first (and to date only) last October, at 20. Looks like Kyrgios won his first at 20. Maybe we turn the question on its head and ask how many players at his age have made so many finals, particularly in recent years? I'm not that worried about FAA...he's too young to feel snake-bit in finals. Plus, look at that spread across surfaces.

Yeah, I also like looking at final appearances as another barometer, as reaching one is a feat unto itself. For one comparison, Roger Federer didn't reach his 6th final until 2002, which would be 2021 for FAA. Roger also started pretty slow in terms of win conversion in finals, going 2-6 in his first eight. Of course then he went on to win 31 of his next 33 finals (!), including a streak of 24 straight final wins.

I'm not predicting that FAA will be as good as Roger, but I use Roger as an example of how a great player can sometimes take a bit of time to iron out the kinks, and then everything clicks for him. I think we'll see something similar with FAA, if not on the same scale.

Despite what Master Ricardo says, if I were asked to pick five players who would be among the best on tour in five years, FAA would be among them. Hmm...sounds like a thread idea.

 

[Moxie]

Yeah, I also like looking at final appearances as another barometer, as reaching one is a feat unto itself. For one comparison, Roger Federer didn't reach his 6th final until 2002, which would be 2021 for FAA. Roger also started pretty slow in terms of win conversion in finals, going 2-6 in his first eight. Of course then he went on to win 31 of his next 33 finals (!), including a streak of 24 straight final wins.

I'm not predicting that FAA will be as good as Roger, but I use Roger as an example of how a great player can sometimes take a bit of time to iron out the kinks, and then everything clicks for him. I think we'll see something similar with FAA, if not on the same scale.

Despite what Master Ricardo says, if I were asked to pick five players who would be among the best on tour in five years, FAA would be among them. Hmm...sounds like a thread idea.

I definitely agree that it's too early to write off young Felix. If nothing else, he's showing that he's in the game. Ricardo said that he's been blown up too much on this forum, but I don't think he has. It's just that you pegged him early, and so we've had an eye on him. It also happens that the media did, as well, because of his results. I don't think it's over-hype, at all. He'll get there, or he won't. I like your idea of a thread to pick the five players that would be best on tour in 5 years.

 

[Sabratha]

Looks like this trend is set to continue. It's a bit too early to write him off, however. He's young and if he's making multiple finals he can certainly cross the finish line.

 

[Ricardo]

I definitely agree that it's too early to write off young Felix. If nothing else, he's showing that he's in the game. Ricardo said that he's been blown up too much on this forum, but I don't think he has. It's just that you pegged him early, and so we've had an eye on him. It also happens that the media did, as well, because of his results. I don't think it's over-hype, at all. He'll get there, or he won't. I like your idea of a thread to pick the five players that would be best on tour in 5 years.

Over rated, as is.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Funny..we both said pre AO he needs a top tier coaching, then he had his best grand slam week ever. How he lost being up two sets to love is still a pure misery and a mystery to me.

 

[tennisville]

You mean 0-7