Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?

El Dude

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
10,163
Reactions
5,847
Points
113
Roger Federer's record so far this year, with rankings of the players he played:

Madrid (1000):
W - Radek Stepanek (48)
L - Kei Nishikori (16)

Indian Wells (1000):
W - Denis Istomin (43), Ivan Dodig (60), Stanislas Wawrinka (18)
L - Rafael Nadal (5)

Dubai (500):
W - Malek Jaziri (128), Marcel Granollers (34), Nikolay Davydenko (46)
L - Tomas Berdych (6)

Rotterdam (500):
W - Grega Zemija (64), Thiemo de Bakker (123)
L - Julien Benneteau (39)

Australian Open (Slam):
W - Benoit Paire (46), N Davydenko (40), B Tomic (43), M Raonic (15), JW Tsonga (8)
L - A Murray (3)

To depict this differently, here is a list of every player he's played in order of their ranking at the time he played them, with losses in bold:

3 Murray
5 Nadal
6 Berdych
8 Tsonga
15 Raonic
16 Nishikori
18 Wawrinka
34 Granollers
39 Benneteau
40, 46 Davydenko
43 Istomin
43 Tomic
46 Paire
48 Stepanek
60 Dodig
64 Zemija
123 Bakker
128 Jaziri

To put all that another way, Roger's record against different ranking ranges:
#1-5: 0-2
#6-10: 1-1
#11-20: 2-1
#21-50: 7-1
#51+: 4-0

Now this isn't a huge sample size but what it leads me to believe is that at least in terms of 2013, Roger is no longer a top 5 player, and his "real" ranking is somewhere in the #6-10 range. Now this may change. Other than Julien Benneteau, who seems to wear "Federer kryptonite," Roger has beaten every player outside of the top 20 - so he's still safely a top 20 caliber player. But I'd really like to see him beat someone other than a coming-back-from-injury Tsonga to call him still an elite player.

You really have to go back to last November to see Federer defeat a true elite player, when he beat Andy Murray in the Word Tour Finals (but was defeated by both del Potro and Djokovic).

Right now Roger's ATP Race Ranking is at #10 - and the above record accurately reflects that. Roger has not played like a true elite player since 2012, and it remains to be seen whether he can recapture anything approach that level. Let us hope!
 

Denis

Grand Slam Champion
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
6,067
Reactions
691
Points
113
I think it's top 4, or no. 4. He hasn't played much, and I am not going to rank the likes of Ferrer and Berdych above him just yet. Two upcoming slams will be important for Federer.
 

britbox

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
27,424
Reactions
6,247
Points
113
Location
Gold Coast, Australia
El Dude said:
Roger Federer's record so far this year, with rankings of the players he played:

Madrid (1000):
W - Radek Stepanek (48)
L - Kei Nishikori (16)

Indian Wells (1000):
W - Denis Istomin (43), Ivan Dodig (60), Stanislas Wawrinka (18)
L - Rafael Nadal (5)

Dubai (500):
W - Malek Jaziri (128), Marcel Granollers (34), Nikolay Davydenko (46)
L - Tomas Berdych (6)

Rotterdam (500):
W - Grega Zemija (64), Thiemo de Bakker (123)
L - Julien Benneteau (39)

Australian Open (Slam):
W - Benoit Paire (46), N Davydenko (40), B Tomic (43), M Raonic (15), JW Tsonga (8)
L - A Murray (3)

To depict this differently, here is a list of every player he's played in order of their ranking at the time he played them, with losses in bold:

3 Murray
5 Nadal
6 Berdych
8 Tsonga
15 Raonic
16 Nishikori
18 Wawrinka
34 Granollers
39 Benneteau
40, 46 Davydenko
43 Istomin
43 Tomic
46 Paire
48 Stepanek
60 Dodig
64 Zemija
123 Bakker
128 Jaziri

To put all that another way, Roger's record against different ranking ranges:
#1-5: 0-2
#6-10: 1-1
#11-20: 2-1
#21-50: 7-1
#51+: 4-0

Now this isn't a huge sample size but what it leads me to believe is that at least in terms of 2013, Roger is no longer a top 5 player, and his "real" ranking is somewhere in the #6-10 range. Now this may change. Other than Julien Benneteau, who seems to wear "Federer kryptonite," Roger has beaten every player outside of the top 20 - so he's still safely a top 20 caliber player. But I'd really like to see him beat someone other than a coming-back-from-injury Tsonga to call him still an elite player.

You really have to go back to last November to see Federer defeat a true elite player, when he beat Andy Murray in the Word Tour Finals (but was defeated by both del Potro and Djokovic).

Right now Roger's ATP Race Ranking is at #10 - and the above record accurately reflects that. Roger has not played like a true elite player since 2012, and it remains to be seen whether he can recapture anything approach that level. Let us hope!

I'm pretty sure barring injury, Federer will be a lot higher than #10 come the year end. If you don't think he's a Top 5 player, then I'm wondering who the other 2 would be (other than Rafa, Nole, Murray)? You'd perhaps need to give their results the same level of scrutiny and inspection.
 

Front242

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
22,992
Reactions
3,923
Points
113
We'll see how he does in the slams. If he manages to reach semis he's really around number 4. Tommy Haas is in fierce form and will be top 10 again soon. I'd like Roger to find the level of both serving and hitting consistency Tommy Haas right now. BH and FH clicking in nearly every match. Watching shanks and shots go miles wide today against Nishikori wasn't pretty. That said, he's played 2 matches in 7 weeks. If he'd managed to win ugly by playing more intelligently today (being patient and choosing the right shots instead of going for broke which he did too often) at least he'd have lived to play another match and get more match play. As it is, it's back to the practice courts and he's said he's disappointed in his play which should hopefully drive him to do better pretty soon.

Remember what happened end of 2011 when everyone wrote him off before his great run. He claimed he needed to iron out the lapses in concentration and he did just that with a solid consistent period of play when he won all those titles. Sadly now the inconsistency has returned and 7 weeks off didn't help. Pretty sure he can play his way into form a bit more in best of 5 and win ugly if needed in the early rounds. He won't have much choice unless he really does better in Rome and gets more matches under his belt. The guys at 6-10 aren't exactly amazing us all with their play either so it's not like he's below any of them.
 

Front242

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
22,992
Reactions
3,923
Points
113
Denisovich said:
Front242 said:
Denisovich said:
Kiu said:
Old Roger is #5

Who is above him then?

The other 4 ? :p

You mean young Roger, prime Roger, baby-Fed and grumpy Federer?

Sounds like something Kieran would say:p Seriously though, Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and Ferrer all have better results than him since Cincy last year when he last won a title. Since then he's been like a far different player. He's only played 2 matches in 7 weeks so I wouldn't write him off just yet and I still think he'll manage to play his way into some better form in RG where the best of 5 format will prove some useful practice.
 

Denis

Grand Slam Champion
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
6,067
Reactions
691
Points
113
Aha ok, Ferrer is the fourth player... well yes maybe in terms of results...

Anyway, if he get's unlucky with the draw at RG and Wimbledon (meeting Haas, Dimitrov and at RG even Wawrinka) early and he has a bad day, the QF streak might come to an end. I actually think that really might happen. The streak is just incredible in itself, and he had a couple of close wins before, he will find himself on the losing side at some point.
 

Front242

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
22,992
Reactions
3,923
Points
113
Denisovich said:
Aha ok, Ferrer is the fourth player... well yes maybe in terms of results...

Anyway, if he get's unlucky with the draw at RG and Wimbledon (meeting Haas, Dimitrov and at RG even Wawrinka) early and he has a bad day, the QF streak might come to an end. I actually think that really might happen. The streak is just incredible in itself, and he had a couple of close wins before, he will find himself on the losing side at some point.

Against Wawrinka and Haas I'd agree he'll have a good chance of losing as they're not missing many balls and serving much better than he is right now. Dimitrov was brilliant against Djokovic and Nadal (at Monte Carlo) but till he improves his fitness I think even if he somehow managed to get 2 sets up on Roger his fitness is questionable and he'd run out of gas in best of 5.

Let's see how they all fare next week in Rome.
 

Correspondent Kiu

Correspondent
Joined
Apr 15, 2013
Messages
4,372
Reactions
52
Points
48
Location
Maryland
Front242 said:
Denisovich said:
Kiu said:
Old Roger is #5

Who is above him then?

The other 4 ? :p

1) Nole
2) Andy
3) Rafa
4) Daveed
5) Roger!


look at the race to london ranking, OLD Roger is sitting pretty at the #10 spot!!
1 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 4,120
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 3,000
3 Murray, Andy (GBR) 2,720
4 Ferrer, David (ESP) 2,520
5 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 1,685
6 Delpo, Juan Martin (ARG) 1,515
7 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA) 1,410
8 Gasquet, Richard (FRA) 1,395
9 Almagro, Nicolas (ESP) 1,305
10 Federer, Roger (SUI) 1,170
 

Denis

Grand Slam Champion
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
6,067
Reactions
691
Points
113
^ I know, I even started he thread about it a week ago...
 

El Dude

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
10,163
Reactions
5,847
Points
113
OK, let's see how he does at the next couple Slams, but my concern is that the "shanks and shots gone wide" is all I've seen from him in 2013.

As for who is above him, well assuming he doesn't improve then I think Berdych, del Potro, Ferrer, and Tsonga are all better. Ferrer might not beat him one on one, but will do better against others. This Roger is about on par with Gasquet, in my opinion.
 

JesuslookslikeBorg

Grand Slam Champion
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
6,323
Reactions
1,074
Points
113
come on folks..its Federer we are talking about..surely he is going to improve :huh:

fear not tennis chums :cool: everything is in hand (I hope).
 

DarthFed

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
17,724
Reactions
3,477
Points
113
El Dude said:
OK, let's see how he does at the next couple Slams, but my concern is that the "shanks and shots gone wide" is all I've seen from him in 2013.

As for who is above him, well assuming he doesn't improve then I think Berdych, del Potro, Ferrer, and Tsonga are all better. Ferrer might not beat him one on one, but will do better against others. This Roger is about on par with Gasquet, in my opinion.


:huh: It isn't that bad yet. He might be playing worse than a couple of those guys the past few months but that's it. Roger stunk for his standards after Cincy last year but that was still better than everyone but Djokovic and Murray.

Look, it does seem Fed will drop below Ferrer sometime soon. However, on top of the fact Roger has played poorly you do have Ferrer playing almost double the tournaments Federer does. Berdych is better than Roger only in the individual matchup, he is quite inconsistent vs. the rest of the field. Tsonga??? Gasquet??? Please. 3-4 piss poor months of tennis doesn't mean he will always be this bad.
 

Sundaymorningguy

Grand Slam Champion
Joined
Apr 15, 2013
Messages
6,384
Reactions
1,759
Points
113
Location
Norfolk, VA
#3 since that is what he will be ranked next week. If he doesn't improve soon, then it will be 4 or 5.
 

Correspondent Kiu

Correspondent
Joined
Apr 15, 2013
Messages
4,372
Reactions
52
Points
48
Location
Maryland
El Dude said:
...
As for who is above him, well assuming he doesn't improve then I think Berdych, del Potro, Ferrer, and Tsonga are all better....

I was being nice, he is a legend and I love him to death.
He has done more than anyone in this era to popularize Tennis.

But I agree with your conclusion.

How is a 32 year old going to improve?

Roger is still #5 in my book because of who he is.

It was hard putting Daveed ahead of him!