Early Wimbledon Talk

[GameSetAndMath]

OK. folks, It is time to move to greener pastures.

Here are the odds for different player to win Wimbledon as per bookies. I am listing everyone with a 1% or better chances.

1. Andy 11/4
2. Roger 3
3. Novak 11/2
4. Rafa 8
5. Raonic 12
6. Kyrgios 20
7. Sasha 25
8. Stan 28
9. Grigor / JMDP 33
10. Cilic / Thiem 40
11. Nishikori 66
12. Tsonga 80
13. Berdych 100

I will update this after each warm up tourney is over and after the draw is made. Do you think the above odds are reasonable? Discuss away.

 

[Denis]

Stan and Novaks odds are too high. Stan sucks on the grass. I think fed is the favorite, not Murray.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Yes, Stan generally sucks on grass and 28 seems very generous. But, he has hired Paul Annacone to help him on grass this year. That may have played a role too.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Yes, Stan generally sucks on grass and 28 seems very generous. But, he has hired Paul Annacone to help him on grass this year. That may have played a role too.

GSM.. what is Rafa possible chances of being seeded higher 4 or 3 at Wimbledon

 

[GameSetAndMath]

GSM.. what is Rafa possible chances of being seeded higher 4 or 3 at Wimbledon

MJD has a thread in which he updates the situation about Wimbledon seedings based on grass formula. He has not updated it yet after RG is over. Check that thread for info.

 

[the AntiPusher]

MJD has a thread in which he updates the situation about Wimbledon seedings based on grass formula. He has not updated it yet after RG is over. Check that thread for info.

Thanks

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Just put Rafa and Roger on opposite side of the draw...there is a Fedal possibility B-)

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Also, Thiem's game won't suit grass that much and so I think his odds are also generous.

 

[El Dude]

This is how I see the order in terms of favorites:
1. Federer
2. Murray
3. Nadal
4. Djokovic
5. Raonic
6. Zverev
7. Kyrgios
8. Dimitrov
9. Cilic
10. Wawrinka
11. Del Potro
12. Nishikori
13. Tsonga
14. Berdych
15. Goffin

 

[Moxie]

I know you like to group things, so, while I'll keep your list, I'd draw certain lines:

Serious contenders:
1. Federer
2. Murray
3. Nadal
4. Djokovic

Potential (but unlikely) winners (and I wouldn't necessarily agree with your order):
5. Raonic
6. Zverev
7. Kyrgios
8. Dimitrov
9. Cilic
10. Wawrinka

Dark horses/spoilers:

11. Del Potro
12. Nishikori
13. Tsonga
14. Berdych
15. Goffin

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, pretty much. That "potential winners" group could be re-arranged in any number of ways.

 

[Denis]

I'm not sure what to make of Nadal. The last time he got past the fourth round was in 2011, that's six years ago. I would actually give DP, Dimitrov, Raonic a bigger chance than Nadal.

For me its:

Big favorite: Federer
Second favorite: Murray

A bit more distant: Djokovic.

Then: DP, Dimitrov, Raonic

Then Nadal, Tsonga, Cilic, Zverev (a bit of a question mark, could be higher or lower depending on what he does in the grass season), Kyrgios.

After that it becomes irrelevant.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Nadal is the second favourite for me. Ahead of Murray. Simply put, the tennis he is playing is top notch. Good tennis will work on any surface.

 

[Denis]

Nadal is the second favourite for me. Ahead of Murray. Simply put, the tennis he is playing is top notch. Good tennis will work on any surface.

Tell that to Muster, Sampras and Becker.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Tell that to Muster, Sampras and Becker.

If Sampras is one of them, then its interesting. But today's Wimbledon grass court isn't a good grass court.

 

[Denis]

If Sampras is one of them, then its interesting. But today's Wimbledon grass court isn't a good grass court.

If Nadal makes it to the second week, his chances will improve because the surface plays more to his liking. But that's only if he makes the second week. I would definitely not rank him second favorite before that.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Nadal's poor performances in recent years had more to do with his health I would think. Or was it?

 

[Denis]

Nadal's poor performances in recent years had more to do with his health I would think. Or was it?

Yup, if not for his knees Nadal would have la decima in SW19 as well in a few weeks. Had nothing to do with the fact that he only abandoned once and lost 5 matches against very average players since 2011.

 

[isabelle]

Annacone will help Stan during grass season

 

[MikeOne]

Kyrgios was looking impressive earlier this year and has the game to win but given he has struggled lately, who knows what his form is. Raonic has a good game for grass but he lacks an all around game to counter big 4 and others when they are playing well.

I think Murray has momentum from FO and likes grass, Fed is very confident so i think it will be between these two. Rafa is hard to predict, he is always vulnerable in early rounds when grass isn't worn out, there are bad bounces and he is still adjusting to grass from clay. If Rafa makes quarters, he can win it but he can easily go out to a big hitter in early rounds.