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My take is that AO 2019 is one of the most open major tournaments in recent times. You have good reasons to bet against all main actors. Djokovic is the favorite, given history and current ranking, but I cannot see him head and shoulders above the field. Let's run down the list.
1) Djokovic: Favorite yes, but I can see him being beaten by some power player in the current fast AO surface. He is by far the most solid player now but honestly I have not seen the brilliance of past achievements. Not to mention some slip in form like the last final.
2) Nadal: Not particularly impressive in hard courts since... I don't know, since a long time ago. Not saying he is lousy lately on the surface, but far from an imperious favorite.
3) Federer: Two times defending champion, but as inconsistent as it gets (I could open a thread about this).
4) Zverev: First he needs to get to the quarters, then we talk.
5) JMdP: Needs to show consistency also, a threat if healthy and playing well, something that does not happens too much. But if gets to the quarters, he can knock down any of the top 4 given current form.
6) Anderson: Surely a threat to any of the top 4 in the quarters.
7) Cilic: Ditto.
8) Thiem: Still needs to assert himself on majors other than RG.
From 9 to 32 a lot of names who could upset a favorite early one, specially Kachanov, but at least 5 others.
Also, a possible dangerous floater in Kyrgios (at #35 he might still get seeded given walkovers, even if he has 250 points to defend from Brisbane), not to mention Wawrinka and Murray. Also coming back from injury is Rublev (who played a decent Next Gen finals). In R1, they can be a threat to just about everyone. I am not saying those floaters are threats to the title, but they are obvious possible spoilers. When was the last time we had 6 majors belonging to unseeded players? I have a few more players on my watch list for spoilers, but I will leave it for after the draw is available.
1) Djokovic: Favorite yes, but I can see him being beaten by some power player in the current fast AO surface. He is by far the most solid player now but honestly I have not seen the brilliance of past achievements. Not to mention some slip in form like the last final.
2) Nadal: Not particularly impressive in hard courts since... I don't know, since a long time ago. Not saying he is lousy lately on the surface, but far from an imperious favorite.
3) Federer: Two times defending champion, but as inconsistent as it gets (I could open a thread about this).
4) Zverev: First he needs to get to the quarters, then we talk.
5) JMdP: Needs to show consistency also, a threat if healthy and playing well, something that does not happens too much. But if gets to the quarters, he can knock down any of the top 4 given current form.
6) Anderson: Surely a threat to any of the top 4 in the quarters.
7) Cilic: Ditto.
8) Thiem: Still needs to assert himself on majors other than RG.
From 9 to 32 a lot of names who could upset a favorite early one, specially Kachanov, but at least 5 others.
Also, a possible dangerous floater in Kyrgios (at #35 he might still get seeded given walkovers, even if he has 250 points to defend from Brisbane), not to mention Wawrinka and Murray. Also coming back from injury is Rublev (who played a decent Next Gen finals). In R1, they can be a threat to just about everyone. I am not saying those floaters are threats to the title, but they are obvious possible spoilers. When was the last time we had 6 majors belonging to unseeded players? I have a few more players on my watch list for spoilers, but I will leave it for after the draw is available.
