Does Rafa have one or two more slams left in him?

[arfff123]

I personally thought that he had a mighty chance to take back RG again this year but that wrist injury was a major setback. So what do you all think, can he win more slams after this?

 

[Front242]

I personally don't think so and same goes for Federer.

 

[Front242]

Tequila slams only from here on.

 

[herios]

Most likely not

 

[Fiero425]

Most likely not

Anything's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it; here in Paris or elsewhere! :nono

 

[Riotbeard]

Depends on how quickly he comes back from the wrist. If this is a quick blip, and he comes back with the same form he had in the clay season, he has a good chance at one, maybe two slams, but even that is not a guarantee. If this evolves into the types of injury where he has to take off most of the season, I think it will be hard for him to build back up to this level again, and find it really unlikely that he wins another slam.

 

[El Dude]

A few months ago I would have given his chances at 20%. A week ago I would have given him a 40-50% chance. Now I'm back around 30%, meaning his chances dropped substantially since the wrist injury, but he's still in better shape than he in January, after going out in the first round of the Australian Open.

We need to remember that while he's seemingly having a better year in 2016 than he did in 2015, it isn't by a huge margin: he's won 77% of his matches this year compared to 75% last, and that even with the "clay season bump." He's actually been much worse at Slams, with two QF exits last year and a 1R and 3R this year.

If we consider that RG is his best chance (by far), with the AO and USO both possible but long-shots, and Wimbledon very unlikely, his window of opportunity isn't going to get better. He won't get younger than Novak, and in "tennis years" is probably about three years older than him rather than just a single year. And even if Novak struggled at Roland Garros next year, Andy is a much stronger clay-courter than he used to be, and of course Dominic Thiem looks like he'll continue to improve for another year or two.

That said, his surge at Monte Carlo and Barcelona shows he can still play at a high level. Maybe he can come back strong at the USO or at AO and hope that someone knocks Novak out. But like Roger, he needs both a favorable draw and a "Novak Slayer" to help him out.

 

[Fiero425]

A few months ago I would have given his chances at 20%. A week ago I would have given him a 40-50% chance. Now I'm back around 30%, meaning his chances dropped substantially since the wrist injury, but he's still in better shape than he in January, after going out in the first round of the Australian Open.

We need to remember that while he's seemingly having a better year in 2016 than he did in 2015, it isn't by a huge margin: he's won 77% of his matches this year compared to 75% last, and that even with the "clay season bump." He's actually been much worse at Slams, with two QF exits last year and a 1R and 3R this year.

If we consider that RG is his best chance (by far), with the AO and USO both possible but long-shots, and Wimbledon very unlikely, his window of opportunity isn't going to get better. He won't get younger than Novak, and in "tennis years" is probably about three years older than him rather than just a single year. And even if Novak struggled at Roland Garros next year, Andy is a much stronger clay-courter than he used to be, and of course Dominic Thiem looks like he'll continue to improve for another year or two.

That said, his surge at Monte Carlo and Barcelona shows he can still play at a high level. Maybe he can come back strong at the USO or at AO and hope that someone knocks Novak out. But like Roger, he needs both a favorable draw and a "Novak Slayer" to help him out.

You're being kind! Rafa is more like 40; nee dog years running around on wheels that are wobbling! :snicker

 

[herios]

A few months ago I would have given his chances at 20%. A week ago I would have given him a 40-50% chance. Now I'm back around 30%, meaning his chances dropped substantially since the wrist injury, but he's still in better shape than he in January, after going out in the first round of the Australian Open.

We need to remember that while he's seemingly having a better year in 2016 than he did in 2015, it isn't by a huge margin: he's won 77% of his matches this year compared to 75% last, and that even with the "clay season bump." He's actually been much worse at Slams, with two QF exits last year and a 1R and 3R this year.

If we consider that RG is his best chance (by far), with the AO and USO both possible but long-shots, and Wimbledon very unlikely, his window of opportunity isn't going to get better. He won't get younger than Novak, and in "tennis years" is probably about three years older than him rather than just a single year. And even if Novak struggled at Roland Garros next year, Andy is a much stronger clay-courter than he used to be, and of course Dominic Thiem looks like he'll continue to improve for another year or two.

That said, his surge at Monte Carlo and Barcelona shows he can still play at a high level. Maybe he can come back strong at the USO or at AO and hope that someone knocks Novak out. But like Roger, he needs both a favorable draw and a "Novak Slayer" to help him out.

You are dreaming if you think his form when he will coming back will be similar to what it was before this wrist injury. Not happening.
Whenever he came back in the past it took him months to find his form and the period of recovery of his form kept being longer and longer.
This is now his left wrist and all his game depends on it.

 

[shawnbm]

Next year in Paris is likely the one. SW 19 seems unlikely and New York seems too daunting with his game these days. I can only see clay being where it could conceivably occur and then likely only next year. This year was a huge setback.

 

[Fiero425]

Next year in Paris is likely the one. SW 19 seems unlikely and New York seems too daunting with his game these days. I can only see clay being where it could conceivably occur and then likely only next year. This year was a huge setback.

True enough! I saw flashes of past brilliance even though I don't particularly care for his game! He was a legitimate threat, but that fell away quick; probably working too hard since he knows time is running out! He's always needed plenty of matches and those premature losses on clay last season couldn't have been helpful to his game or confidence! :nono :angel: :dodgy: :cover

 

[herios]

And by the way, who's to say once he comes back and plays a considerable amount of tennis, will not get re-injured again? This is his mantra, to get injured. We know by now.

 

[mrzz]

The point for me is that, in the past, one way or another his body gave up, but at least it gave up after being submitted to the extremely extreme (!) test his level of play demanded. This time his body gave up after a relatively pedestrian year and a half, so... does not look good. But he will be a factor in RG for years to come, as Federer will be in Wimbledon. And of course a Djokovic slayer would help, but they do have a different than zero chance of beating him. In fact, as I said in other occasions, Djokovic does not seem unbeatable right now.

 

[herios]

The point for me is that, in the past, one way or another his body gave up, but at least it gave up after being submitted to the extremely extreme (!) test his level of play demanded. This time his body gave up after a relatively pedestrian year and a half, so... does not look good. But he will be a factor in RG for years to come, as Federer will be in Wimbledon. And of course a Djokovic slayer would help, but they do have a different than zero chance of beating him. In fact, as I said in other occasions, Djokovic does not seem unbeatable right now.

Yes, Djokovic will help....just the way he helped Rafa the last two years

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

A lot depends on this wrist thing. I mean, there are wrist injuries and there are Delpo wrist injuries. Anyone knows what is his deal?

Assuming the wrist heals with no issues, I give him a shot at another RG. Funny thing is RG is probably the most physically demanding slam and Rafa is not getting any younger. But I believe he can find a way there. No dice on Wimby or hard courts.

 

[El Dude]

And by the way, who's to say once he comes back and plays a considerable amount of tennis, will not get re-injured again? This is his mantra, to get injured. We know by now.

[video=youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2y8Sx4B2Sk[/video]

 

[El Dude]

You are dreaming if you think his form when he will coming back will be similar to what it was before this wrist injury. Not happening.
Whenever he came back in the past it took him months to find his form and the period of recovery of his form kept being longer and longer.
This is now his left wrist and all his game depends on it.

Well I agree - I didn't say he'd come back at full strength right away. But if the injury is relatively minor and is healed with a couple weeks rest, he could conceivably compete at the US Open. If it is more significant, he could still be back to full strength by the Australian Open and give it another (one more?) shot of it.

 

[mrzz]

Yes, Djokovic will help....just the way he helped Rafa the last two years

You missread it... I used a expression someone else coined (I guess Front or Fiero), "a Djokovic slayer" (that is, a guy who would beat Djokovic on a slam), and that would be the one to help, not Djokovic himself (obviously).

 

[Front242]

Let's all be honest with ourselves here. It's not only Nadal but also Federer and Murray would need someone else (Stan?) to beat Djokovic for them to stand any chance of winning another slam at this point. It's not out of the question but you'd be a brave man putting down hard cash on any of the above (not only Nadal) to win another slam if they have to face Djokovic en route to winning it. I'd give Murray a better than average shot at beating Djokovic at Wimbledon, however.

Sorry for going off on a tangent to include the others but I felt it was appropriate to note that for any of them to win they'll most likely have to beat Djokovic, which makes things a pretty uphill battle at this stage.

 

[nehmeth]

I personally thought that he had a mighty chance to take back RG again this year but that wrist injury was a major setback. So what do you all think, can he win more slams after this?

:nono :nono I honestly don't think he will. He wrecked himself pushing to get back to a semblance of his old form this year. It won't get any easier after 30.