Djokovic retaining/regaining #1

[Moxie]

OK, enough with the endless Rafa threads. Djokovic is on the cusp of losing his #1 to Nadal, that is true. What is it going to take to win it back, should he lose it? Nadal has the advantage, in the next few months, of nothing to defend. But then he does have a great deal.

Novak is has just helped put Serbia into the DC finals, which has proved to be a big confidence booster for him, especially should Serbia win. Then he glides into the AO, his best Slam.

When Nadal finally overtook Roger as #1, they traded back and forth. It seems this could be where Rafa and Nole are. Any thoughts on where Novak gains an edge/gets his groove on?

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Nadal can gain HUGE at the Australian Open. Can gain at Miami if he wants to play it. Can gain a bit at Monte Carlo. Can gain at Wimbledon.

Nadal doesn't even have to win a Round at Canada/Cincy next year (if he does well at the AO especially). And all the clay points Nadal has to defend, is nothing new to him, extremely manageable (especially with no rust/recovery in 2014).

And next year Djokovic will probably have to worry about Federer, because surely Federer will do a bit better than 2013. Murray is a threat, but more to Djokovic.

So no, Djokovic is not in the picture.

 

[Moxie]

Djokovic is still #1, and is thousands of points ahead of most of the field, so I'm not sure how you see that he's 'not in the picture.' (Except perhaps if you have your "Nadal Goggles" on, and want it to be so.)

I was hoping for a more considered assessment. Novak has points to gain at IW, Miami, and after MC at every event, if he improves on his 2013. It's mostly going to be pick-axing, as he went deep enough in most events. But he will have to chop away at it.

 

[Riotbeard]

Djokovic is still #1, and is thousands of points ahead of most of the field, so I'm not sure how you see that he's 'not in the picture.' (Except perhaps if you have your "Nadal Goggles" on, and want it to be so.)

I was hoping for a more considered assessment. Novak has points to gain at IW, Miami, and after MC at every event, if he improves on his 2013. It's mostly going to be pick-axing, as he went deep enough in most events. But he will have to chop away at it.

Yes, somehow Nadal2005RG manages to answer a novak thread by talking exclusively about rafa.

This year, Novak would have to go undefeated and rafa borderline winless to get it back before the end. Last year Novak was in a roughly similar position (outside of losing the ranking), so I think there is real potential to use the fall and davis cup as a good bit of momentum. Truth be told after the AO, he defends virtually nothing in the masters events. He just needs momentum. Rafa and Nole are relatively equal as far as tennis goes (either guy can win any day on any surface), when they are at their best, right now rafa has the momentum. A year and a half ago, Novak had 7 straight wins on rafa, now Rafa has what, 6 out of 7? The pendulum will swing back and then probably back again.

I don't honestly think Novak is in panic mode (in a good way). He know theoretically how to beat rafa, he just has to do it and get belief back. Both guys are smart players, and both know this. 2011 Novak isn't gone forever(IMO), but this is a rough year. He probably won't have another 2011 season, but that level is still there.

 

[huntingyou]

Novak will be able to regain #1 during the summer HC season next year if Rafa's level drops and can't manage to put a decent fall season this year. We all know he will get points at the AO and SW19 next year while defending most of his clay points in Europe.

I believe he can and he will.....Murray it's out of the picture for #1 ranking until he can become proficient on clay and manages at least 1500 points out of 5000 possible points.

 

[Moxie]

Djokovic is still #1, and is thousands of points ahead of most of the field, so I'm not sure how you see that he's 'not in the picture.' (Except perhaps if you have your "Nadal Goggles" on, and want it to be so.)

I was hoping for a more considered assessment. Novak has points to gain at IW, Miami, and after MC at every event, if he improves on his 2013. It's mostly going to be pick-axing, as he went deep enough in most events. But he will have to chop away at it.

Yes, somehow Nadal2005RG manages to answer a novak thread by talking exclusively about rafa.

This year, Novak would have to go undefeated and rafa borderline winless to get it back before the end. Last year Novak was in a roughly similar position (outside of losing the ranking), so I think there is real potential to use the fall and davis cup as a good bit of momentum. Truth be told after the AO, he defends virtually nothing in the masters events. He just needs momentum. Rafa and Nole are relatively equal as far as tennis goes (either guy can win any day on any surface), when they are at their best, right now rafa has the momentum. A year and a half ago, Novak had 7 straight wins on rafa, now Rafa has what, 6 out of 7? The pendulum will swing back and then probably back again.

I don't honestly think Novak is in panic mode (in a good way). He know theoretically how to beat rafa, he just has to do it and get belief back. Both guys are smart players, and both know this. 2011 Novak isn't gone forever(IMO), but this is a rough year. He probably won't have another 2011 season, but that level is still there.

The 7 wins to Nole at a trot, and the last 6 of 7 to Rafa I think is not what we'll see going forward, IMO. You may also be saying this, but I think they're going to trade back-and-forth more frequently, in the near future. Djokovic does know how to beat Nadal, and Nadal has figured out some things that had to change, in order to beat Nole. I suspect they'll be wrestling for the next couple of years.

On the notion of "2011 Nole," I think of it this way: it's a neighborhood that he doesn't live in, but he can visit. It's a question of how often he can stay, and if he picks the right nights. This year he didn't, but next year he might. It'll be interesting to see how the next year shakes out, especially between Nole and Rafa.

 

[Loveall]

Right now, Rafa has a 3000 point lead over Novak in the YTD points aka "Race to London".
Indoor hard courts are NOT his favorite surface but except Novak there are few players who can beat him even on his worst surface (based on what we saw this year). Rafa will make subtle adjustments to his game .
He will go deep in Beijing, Shanghai, Paris and WTF. (Total available points 4000Max)
Let us assume that Novak wins all of the @ and Rafa ends as the Finalist , Rafa will still have a 1200 point lead pver Novak and end the Year as # 1.
A) 2014, Novak can not gain any points , But Rafa can gain say 1200 points, the lead will increase to 2400 points.

Rafa will get to #1 and hold on to it for at least 6 months. unless he has a bad clay season

 

[brokenshoelace]

Novak will be able to regain #1 during the summer HC season next year if Rafa's level drops and can't manage to put a decent fall season this year. We all know he will get points at the AO and SW19 next year while defending most of his clay points in Europe.

I believe he can and he will.....Murray it's out of the picture for #1 ranking until he can become proficient on clay and manages at least 1500 points out of 5000 possible points.

If Murray has a clay season like the one he did in 2011 for example (which was good, but not particularly exceptional), then he will be in the discussion since he's got a lot of points he can win in the summer hard court season since he under-performed this year. Keep in mind, he completely skipped Roland Garros so even a quarter-final appearance would boost his ranking points. But yeah, he's got a lot of points to defend at AO and Wimbledon (though I think he'll reach the advanced stages at least, in both).

 

[huntingyou]

Novak will be able to regain #1 during the summer HC season next year if Rafa's level drops and can't manage to put a decent fall season this year. We all know he will get points at the AO and SW19 next year while defending most of his clay points in Europe.

I believe he can and he will.....Murray it's out of the picture for #1 ranking until he can become proficient on clay and manages at least 1500 points out of 5000 possible points.

If Murray has a clay season like the one he did in 2011 for example (which was good, but not particularly exceptional), then he will be in the discussion since he's got a lot of points he can win in the summer hard court season since he under-performed this year. Keep in mind, he completely skipped Roland Garros so even a quarter-final appearance would boost his ranking points. But yeah, he's got a lot of points to defend at AO and Wimbledon (though I think he'll reach the advanced stages at least, in both).

Yes, in 2011 he made SF at RG and had a couple of SF I think at the MS events. A little bit under the 1500 but much better than last year and this one. If he win the AO for example, then a good run on clay will put him in position to go for the #1 ranking during the American HC season which it's ideal for him since he can win any event there. The fall season will be key, there is a lot of point out there and when it comes to the race for the #1 next year....I'm feeling it could be close between the big three.

 

[Iona16]

Andy can pick up points during the clay season if he's fit. I think these past few years he has focused so much on the slams that he has let his performances in the masters dip. I think he's struggling to get the balance right and I'm hoping Lendl helps with that issue. I do think Andy can become #1 at some point but only if he improves his consistency.

I think losing the #1 ranking will hurt Novak and I expect him to go all out to get it back. Rafa can pick up points but he has a lot to defend. Fans thought he would pick up points at Wimbledon this year but he ended up losing points. It's been an amazing year for Rafa so far. Can he repeat it next year? He could but it's not a given.

 

[huntingyou]

Andy can pick up points during the clay season if he's fit. I think these past few years he has focused so much on the slams that he has let his performances in the masters dip. I think he's struggling to get the balance right and I'm hoping Lendl helps with that issue. I do think Andy can become #1 at some point but only if he improves his consistency.

I think losing the #1 ranking will hurt Novak and I expect him to go all out to get it back. Rafa can pick up points but he has a lot to defend. Fans thought he would pick up points at Wimbledon this year but he ended up losing points. It's been an amazing year for Rafa so far. Can he repeat it next year? He could but it's not a given.

How do you feel about his scheduling? Does he play anything between the AO and IW? I know he has issues with injuries but they are not too bad, if he can manage his schedule well and now that there is no more pressure to win SW19 outside the normal pressure you feel as a favorite, he should definitely focus on having a good clay season....he has all the tools to perform like a top 10 claycourter instead of borderline 100

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

murrays world no1 rank window has closed for the foreseeable,

he blew it last autumn by losing shanghai masters to djokovic (4 match points) so that was an 800 pt swing away from andy and then he failed to win the wtf whereas djokovic won that as well,

yep..a big missed opportunity..next chance I agree, all the tourneys, esp clay approaching Wimbledon, (queens and wimb defends 2250pts)..

looking past next june is too far off to bother with at moment.

 

[huntingyou]

murrays world no1 rank window has closed for the foreseeable,

he blew it last autumn by losing shanghai masters to djokovic (4 match points) so that was an 800 pt swing away from andy and then he failed to win the wtf whereas djokovic won that as well,

yep..a big missed opportunity..next chance I agree, all the tourneys, esp clay approaching Wimbledon, (queens and wimb defends 2250pts)..

looking past next june is too far off to bother with at moment.

true, at this point we are just discussing what Murray has to do in order to get himself in the conversation for #1 rank. Clay is key for that so let's hope he can take that step...I'm looking for a three way, it would be awesome to have three players trading blows for the #1 ranking instead of just one dominating completely.

 

[Iona16]

Andy can pick up points during the clay season if he's fit. I think these past few years he has focused so much on the slams that he has let his performances in the masters dip. I think he's struggling to get the balance right and I'm hoping Lendl helps with that issue. I do think Andy can become #1 at some point but only if he improves his consistency.

I think losing the #1 ranking will hurt Novak and I expect him to go all out to get it back. Rafa can pick up points but he has a lot to defend. Fans thought he would pick up points at Wimbledon this year but he ended up losing points. It's been an amazing year for Rafa so far. Can he repeat it next year? He could but it's not a given.

How do you feel about his scheduling? Does he play anything between the AO and IW? I know he has issues with injuries but they are not too bad, if he can manage his schedule well and now that there is no more pressure to win SW19 outside the normal pressure you feel as a favorite, he should definitely focus on having a good clay season....he has all the tools to perform like a top 10 claycourter instead of borderline 100

In 2012 he only played Dubai (Final) between AO and IW. In 2013 he didn't play anything between AO and IW but he reached the quarters in IW and won Miami. Not sure what his plans are for 2014 yet. He should be performing better in the hard court tournaments. He is playing Bangkok, Tokyo and Shanghai in the coming weeks.

I'm afraid clay will always be problematic because of his knee condition. He has performed well in the past but obviously he hasn't had the results you would expect from a player of his ranking.

He's achieved his lifetime ambitions these past 12 months or so. I suppose a lull was expected. I'm just hoping he has set himself new goals for 2014. Ending 2013 on a high would be very nice.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

^^murray has the right coach for him to get back into focus..it was one of ivans big plus points,

lendl was world no 1 rank in feb 83, way before winning his 1st major at rg84, the reverse of andy..but...>

...after winning rg in 1984 he had to go through having his bottom kicked some more by McEnroe and losing his rg title to wilander in 85 before winning 85 u s open and replacing mac as world no1 for good.

 

[Jelenafan]

Rafa by making the final at Beijing would take over #1 if I'm not mistaken. Since barring injury he'll probably play both Masters and the ATP YE, he could actually open up a 2000 point lead before the AO even if Nole wins the ATP again.

 

[Fiero425]

Rafa by making the final at Beijing would take over #1 if I'm not mistaken. Since barring injury he'll probably play both Masters and the ATP YE, he could actually open up a 2000 point lead before the AO even if Nole wins the ATP again.

Besides Rafa not having any points to defend, Nole has a ton, incl. the WTF! He still hasn't won anything since Monte Carlo in April! When was the last time he went that long without a victory? Now he could use that "weak and stupid" idea of Rafa's; a 2 year ranking! :snigger Funny how a player who takes off can benefit so much from not playing the year before! Sick really!

 

[britbox]

They aren't benefiting at all from taking time off. Nadal's points tally has been accrued since he came back. He'll only rise to number one based on that alone.

 

[Jelenafan]

It shows that amassing Masters series points adds up, Rafa made 6 Masters in finals winning 5 and getting 5600 points from those alone. Djokovic needs to win at least one Masters and get to the SF or finals of the other just to have a prayer to defend his top ranking. If he doesn't do well in both Masters his slim chances are gone.

Even if Rafa doesn't lift another racket from here until Season End Nole is hard pressed to 'defend' all his points.

If I'm not mistaken, Golf uses a two year rolling ranking system.

 

[Fiero425]

They aren't benefiting at all from taking time off. Nadal's points tally has been accrued since he came back. He'll only rise to number one based on that alone.

You see the obvious problem; Nole can only maintain since he won so much last season, while Rafa has no points to defend! It's just not the same playing field! Losing in the 1st or 2nd round only hurts one of them from here on out! Not likely, but Nole's been sloppy about finishing off opponents; esp. Rafa when in a position to close a set or match out!