Dimitrov & Tomic

[El Dude]

To me these two represent their generation like no others. Kei Nishikori is what he is and I don't think was ever really expected to be more than what he is: a solid, second tier player. Milos Raonic also is what he is, a player with limited dimension but with immense fire-power. Another second tier player. Both Nishikori and Raonic will probably be around the top 10 for the next half decade, dark horses to grab big tournament titles if the elite slip up - perhaps playing similar roles to what we've seen from Berdych and Tsonga.

But Dimitrov and Tomic both have flashes of something more. Both play with a kind of effortless grace, but both seem to lack fire and heart and may end up as perennial underachievers. Hopefully the next generation that includes Kokkinakis, Coric, Kyrgios, Zverev, Chung, and others, will prove different.

 

[Federberg]

2nd tier.. sorry but excuse me. As things stand I'll take Kei over the titled two in terms of potential career achievements. We don't talk about it much, but Kei has got by far the best movement of any of the younger guys. He has a backhand that is probably only surpassed by Murray and Djokovic. Sure he has injury issues, although that seems to be occurring less frequently. I'm not ready to consign him to the second tier yet. I can't think of a single player outside of the top 4, I have more confidence in to be 'the next no. 1'

 

[bobvance]

I also really like Nishikori's game. If he's able to improve his serve to the point where he consistently gets some free points, and also finds a way to shorten points by coming to the net he would be an absolute handful. His backhand really is a world class shot and his return of serve and movement are also great.

 

[britbox]

Right now Kei is ahead of both of them.

 

[Puppet Master]

Dimitrov and Tomic show flashes of something more.
This is exactly their problem. Only flashes. We never see them playing their best tennis for a set or god forbid, a match. In the past I thought Dimi had real weapons but now, having watched a dozen of his matches it is clear to me that he doesn't possess anything like that, in addition to this, he is gutless, and loses in a tight situation more often than not. Not a very bright future for him the way I see it.
I think it's fair though. No Slams, but Grisha slammed Sharapova plenty of times.

 

[Federberg]

I've always felt Grigor had one of two paths to follow. The Federer path (not saying he was ever going to match those achievements, but some measure of success), or the Xavier Malisse path. Sadly he's looking more Malisse-like by the month :nono

 

[britbox]

Tomic will NEVER win a major. He shouldn't be in the same discussion.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Tomic is a player who's simply not good enough. Yeah, you could argue he didn't make the most of his talent but really, he was never a slam caliber player. Not with that sub-par movement and patchy forehand. Not in today's era. The elite have too much fire power and athleticism for him.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tomic often appears as though he is sleeping while playing his matches.

 

[El Dude]

2nd tier.. sorry but excuse me. As things stand I'll take Kei over the titled two in terms of potential career achievements. We don't talk about it much, but Kei has got by far the best movement of any of the younger guys. He has a backhand that is probably only surpassed by Murray and Djokovic. Sure he has injury issues, although that seems to be occurring less frequently. I'm not ready to consign him to the second tier yet. I can't think of a single player outside of the top 4, I have more confidence in to be 'the next no. 1'

It might be semantics, Federberg. By "second tier" I mean a player is more of a top 10 player than a true elite, someone that is a darkhorse at Slams and Masters but won't win more than maybe 1 or 2 of each. Think Tsonga, Ferrer, Berdych, post-injury del Potro, etc.

A first tier player would be a serious candidate to win big tournaments and potential #1. I don't think Kei is there yet, although I agree that he's more talented than Raonic and possibly as talented as Dimitrov - certainly with a better head on his shoulders.

If Kei can be healthy and stick around for another few years, he might be a good spoiler for Andy and Novak as they start to show signs of age. But he's only two and a half years younger than them.

As for Grigor and Bernie, let me clarify: I'm not even saying that they are the most talented players of their generation (although Grigor is among them), but that they are most representative of it because of their seemingly lackadaisical attitudes and inability to maximize their potentials. Grigor has the abiity to be a true elite player, imo, or least a "lesser elite." And Bernie has the ability to be a second tier player, not an elite but certainly better than he's been - a perennial top 20 player, maybe a bit better.

 

[Federberg]

Personally I think Kei has more in him to be an elite player than Grigor. It takes more than flashy technique imho. And Kei has something that perhaps only Krgios has of the young ones. A killer thing. For Kei, it's his backhand and also his movement. With Nick it's his power. Add to that, both have the mentality. Grigor doesn't have anything that stands out at the moment. We thought because he had - superficially at least - some of Roger's fluidity that it meant something. It really doesn't. As things stand Kei looks like not only he can, but will become an elite player of the next generation. I can't say the same for either Tomic or Grigor. Kyrgios and Coric maybe, but they both need time.

 

[Riotbeard]

Personally I think Kei has more in him to be an elite player than Grigor. It takes more than flashy technique imho. And Kei has something that perhaps only Krgios has of the young ones. A killer thing. For Kei, it's his backhand and also his movement. With Nick it's his power. Add to that, both have the mentality. Grigor doesn't have anything that stands out at the moment. We thought because he had - superficially at least - some of Roger's fluidity that it meant something. It really doesn't. As things stand Kei looks like not only he can, but will become an elite player of the next generation. I can't say the same for either Tomic or Grigor. Kyrgios and Coric maybe, but they both need time.

Yeah. Grigor doesn't seem to have a weapon that takes the racket out of his opponents hands. The aesthetics of his game are great, but the same could be said of Gasquet. Kei's backhand is top notch. Movement just shy of the best movers. When it's on, his forehand is very good (especially for changing directions).

 

[Federberg]

Agreed. It constantly amazes me how he can still be underrated but be where he is now in the rankings. This is one of the few guys outside of the usual mob who wins stuff. And the fact that he won in Tokyo just shows you he can handle pressure

 

[El Dude]

I'd say that Kei is probably the 5th best player on tour right now, behind the Big Four, and he might not be that far behind Andy and Roger, or a reduced Rafa.

That said, while an ATP 500 isn't nothing, there are plenty of players who have won them. By my estimation, there are eight active players who have won Slams (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Hewitt, del Potro, Wawrinka, Cilic) and five more who have won Masters (Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer, Robredo, Haas). By my account, there are 19 players who have topped out at an ATP 500 (all of the players above, except for Cilic, have also won ATP 500s..so a total of 31 active players have won an ATP 500):

Nicolas Almagro
Steve Darcis
Grigor Dimitrov
Alexandr Dolgopolov
Fabio Fognini
Andrey Golubev
Marcel Granollers
Michael Llodra
Feliciano Lopez
Leonardo Mayer
Jurgen Melzer
Juan Monaco
Kei Nishikori
Philipp Petzschner
Sam Querrey
Milos Raonic
Gilles Simon
Fernando Verdasco
Mikhail Youzhny

As you can see, a wide variety of level - but mainly what I would call "tier three" players, players who hand out in the top 40, might have a cup of coffee in the top 10, but aren't regulars, or serious contenders for big titles.

Now here's an interesting fact, of those 19 players, only three have won more than a single ATP 500: Mikhail Youzhny and Nicolas Almagro have won 2, and Kei Nishikori has won 5. Even more interesting, of all active players only five have won more ATP 500s than Nishikori: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Ferrer. Even Andy Murray has only won 4 ATP 500s (although he's also won 10 Masters and 2 Slams).

As a side note, conspicuously not on this list are Richard Gasquet, John Isner, Janko Tipsarevic, Gael Monfils, Marcos Baghdatis, Kevin Anderson, Ivo Karlovic, Victor Troicki, Philip Kohlschreiber, Julien Benneteau...all good players. Actually, Benneteau could be the best active player who has never won any title, and my guess is that Gasquet or Monfils are the best never to win an ATP 500. Monfils is 0-2 in Masters finals, 0-4 in ATP finals.

I apologize for the stat lesson in the middle of this thread, but I got curious and couldn't stop my research!

 

[Federberg]

Interesting data. What is your conclusion though?

 

[Kirijax]

I'd say that Kei is probably the 5th best player on tour right now, behind the Big Four, and he might not be that far behind Andy and Roger, or a reduced Rafa.

That said, while an ATP 500 isn't nothing, there are plenty of players who have won them. By my estimation, there are eight active players who have won Slams (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Hewitt, del Potro, Wawrinka, Cilic) and five more who have won Masters (Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer, Robredo, Haas). By my account, there are 19 players who have topped out at an ATP 500 (all of the players above, except for Cilic, have also won ATP 500s..so a total of 31 active players have won an ATP 500):

Nicolas Almagro
Steve Darcis
Grigor Dimitrov
Alexandr Dolgopolov
Fabio Fognini
Andrey Golubev
Marcel Granollers
Michael Llodra
Feliciano Lopez
Leonardo Mayer
Jurgen Melzer
Juan Monaco
Kei Nishikori
Philipp Petzschner
Sam Querrey
Milos Raonic
Gilles Simon
Fernando Verdasco
Mikhail Youzhny

As you can see, a wide variety of level - but mainly what I would call "tier three" players, players who hand out in the top 40, might have a cup of coffee in the top 10, but aren't regulars, or serious contenders for big titles.

Now here's an interesting fact, of those 19 players, only three have won more than a single ATP 500: Mikhail Youzhny and Nicolas Almagro have won 2, and Kei Nishikori has won 5. Even more interesting, of all active players only five have won more ATP 500s than Nishikori: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Ferrer. Even Andy Murray has only won 4 ATP 500s (although he's also won 10 Masters and 2 Slams).

As a side note, conspicuously not on this list are Richard Gasquet, John Isner, Janko Tipsarevic, Gael Monfils, Marcos Baghdatis, Kevin Anderson, Ivo Karlovic, Victor Troicki, Philip Kohlschreiber, Julien Benneteau...all good players. Actually, Benneteau could be the best active player who has never won any title, and my guess is that Gasquet or Monfils are the best never to win an ATP 500. Monfils is 0-2 in Masters finals, 0-4 in ATP finals.

I apologize for the stat lesson in the middle of this thread, but I got curious and couldn't stop my research!

El Dude, I love the way you describe things. "cup of coffee" :snicker

 

[El Dude]

Interesting data. What is your conclusion though?

No hard conclusion. But if we look at tournament types as levels of accomplishment, and perhaps even corresponding tiers of ability, it seems that Kei is by far the best player in the ATP 500 and down group and that he's ripe to win at least a Masters at some point. He's already well surpassed older "third tier" players like Almagro and Youzhny, but in order to join the "second tier" ranks of Tsonga, Berdych, and Ferrer, he really needs a Masters title. He might be with them in terms of ability, and now be able to go as deep into Slams and be a similar or even greater threat to upset one of the top players, but he doesn't have that symbolic and actual title that says, "I've arrived - I'm firmly established in the second tier."

El Dude, I love the way you describe things. "cup of coffee" :snicker

I wish I could take credit for that, but it is a term used in baseball when a player gets called up from the minor leagues for a short time, but only to be sent back down again. It is like a first and/or short taste of the major leagues.

 

[isabelle]

Tomic will NEVER win a major. He shouldn't be in the same discussion.

Tomic will NEVER be Masha's boyfriend

 

[shawnbm]

First word that came to my mind when I saw the title of this thread--DISAPPOINTING