Did Djokovic really play that poorly?

calitennis127

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Inevitably - and I am someone who has certainly contributed to this line of thinking over the years - a number of non-Nadal fans (and some Nadal fans even) have been saying that "Djokovic was terrible" or "Djokovic played awful". Now, while I certainly do agree that Djokovic was not completely on his game, I think that the view of Front, Denisovich, Darth, etc. really misses the point. That said, I know where all of you are coming from. It is painful for those who like our style to see a player like Djokovic or Federer make a ton of errors against Nadal and look like he is beating himself.

On the other hand, we have to look at some other factors here. First of all, this match went on for about 4 hours, so Djokovic was doing something right. This wasn't the 2008 final. There were plenty of long rallies and there was very good shotmaking throughout from both sides. I would also bet that Djokovic hit more winners than Nadal, despite his struggles today. Djokovic was actually very good in many of the rallies and outplayed Nadal in probably 55% to 60% of them. So to say that Djokovic played terribly and that's what explains the match is frankly inaccurate.

The problems in this match were, frankly, problems that were evident even in Djokovic's recent wins over Nadal. The main one is Djokovic's inability to solidify a lead against Nadal. He simply does not do this as seamlessly as he should. Even in the Miami final, he shot himself in the foot and made a mess of the start of the second set. The worst such collapse from the last year was in the US Open final, when Djokovic had the match on a platter in front of him early in the third set, with a sign on the wall saying "All Yours Novak".

Today, Novak's chance to win this match was at the start of the second set. He had the lead, he had everyone somewhat shocked, he had plenty of people pulling for him, and he had the momentum. Part of this probably had to do with his illness, but I think it was more psychological than anything: he became timid Novak. Nadal was a bull trying to assert his Roland Garros pedigree, while Djokovic looked like a captive backing up with cliff behind him, saying "please, let me live, let me live". His energy dropped and he started to play on his heels. The difference between the confident, self-assured Djokovic of the second set in the Rome final versus the timid Djokovic in the second set today was striking.

What this problem boils down to is that when Nadal ups his intensity level and becomes a defensive juggernaut who mixes in some big forehands, Djokovic really doesn't know who he is or what to do. He more so just plays the game, hoping that the best will happen if he "plays his game". All too often, it doesn't. And because he doesn't have a conscious gameplan in those moments - which demand more than casual playing - he ceases to even be himself.

The ugly manifestation of this failure to respond to a surging Nadal today was Djokovic's implosion on serve in the second set. While Nadal was making the overwhelming majority of his first serves, Djokovic's were all over the place, and they not only hurt him tactically in the short run, but they sent a clear signal to Nadal that Djokovic was tired and vulnerable. And, being the opportunist that he is, Nadal pounced.

In conclusion, I don't think Djokovic played that poorly today. I thought he was excellent in many of the rallies and did some serious damage with my favorite shot against Nadal - the forehand down the line. But the difference really was Djokovic's inability to consolidate his lead at the start of the second set. He stepped down, while Nadal stepped up. I knew Djokovic was going to get a lead today, and if when that moment came Djokovic backed off, he'd be in trouble. Unfortunately, that was all too true today. That - coupled with the irregular number of missed returns and the low first-serve percentage - sealed Djokovic's fate.

After last year's US Open, Djokovic needed to get better at consolidating leads against Nadal. Evidently, he has not improved much in that area.
 

Kieran

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I thought that both men were tight in the first but Nole held it together better. In fact, I expected Rafa to come out swinging from the off, but he started even more tentatively than Nole.

In the second, Rafa increased the tempo and began to go for it more, but only really later in the set, and at the start I had the dreadful fear of Nole breaking in the first game, like he has in virtually every set he's won against Rafa since Flushing Meadows.

Then Rafa took over and I expected it to be swift and painful, but again Rafa missed a chance to break in the third (I think), by bunching some forehands. He should have gotten out of the fourth easier too, but Nole was coming up out of his slump.

By the way, buddy, you've been shown to be wrong so many times about last year's US Open final. Why don't you just credit the victor, and move on?

Did Nole play bad today? I think his level dipped somewhere in the Gulbis match, and hasn't been as high as some of us would have expected, but he wasn't so bad, while definitely not playing his best...
 

calitennis127

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Kieran said:
By the way, buddy, you've been shown to be wrong so many times about last year's US Open final. Why don't you just credit the victor, and move on?

I can't recall a single instance of being "shown to be wrong" about last year's US Open final. Djokovic gave it away in the 3rd set. He was up 2-0 with multiple breakpoints, and then had 0-40 at 4-4. It was his for the taking, and he did not take it.
 

Kieran

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You ran a whole thread on the third set of that final and I showed you that you were wrong, statistically and otherwise. Give it up... ;)
 

calitennis127

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Kieran said:
You ran a whole thread on the third set of that final and I showed you that you were wrong, statistically and otherwise. Give it up... ;)

I do not remember being proven wrong about anything. It appears that you are congratulating yourself for a victory you never won.
 

Kieran

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It appears you're derailing your own thread...again. ;)

I did actually address other points in the OP...
 

rafanoy1992

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The problem with Djokovic in these recent Slam finals is that he gets in stretches where he plays "poorly." It's like Jekyll and Hyde. He plays well for a couple games and then suddenly he starts to play poor tennis. I don't know if its nerves or something but clearly in these six slam finals, his level of play has been sub-par for the most part.

This where as fans we asked, "Why did he hire Becker?"
 

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The one thing that puts Rafa on his heels when he plays Nole is the length and the quality of Nole's returns. They were almost none-existent today. For the most part, Rafa took those to his forehand and whacked them back inside out for either clean winners or to get the upper hand in the rallies.

So, since returning is a huge part of Nole's game plan, I have to consider he did not play his best today.
 

calitennis127

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rafanoy1992 said:
The problem with Djokovic in these recent Slam finals is that he gets in stretches where he plays "poorly." It's like Jekyll and Hyde. He plays well for a couple games and then suddenly he starts to play poor tennis.

And this most often seems to be in moments when he has a significant lead and it is now time for him to seize the moment and take the match.....
 

calitennis127

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1972Murat said:
The one thing that puts Rafa on his heels when he plays Nole is the length and the quality of Nole's returns. They were almost none-existent today. For the most part, Rafa took those to his forehand and whacked them back inside out for either clean winners or to get the upper hand in the rallies.

So, since returning is a huge part of Nole's game plan, I have to consider he did not play his best today.

I absolutely agree about the returns being off throughout the match, but the more fundamental problem is how he responds when it is his time to take the match. In the Grand Slam matches, he shies away a bit and seems to hope that something good will happen in his favor, as opposed to knowing what he's after and how he is going to get it.
 

calitennis127

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1972Murat said:
^True. It was very clear to see at the very first game of the second set how he took his foot of the gas a bit. A bit is all Rafa needs, or any other top player.

Well Nadal is a different animal in that regard. The challenge against him for Djokovic and other top players is not so much getting the lead, but solidifying it.

How will you respond to that 20 minutes of defensive prowess of the highest magnitude combined with forehands being bludgeoned whenever you get a bit passive in the rallies?

That's the challenge against Nadal, and all too often Djokovic's response of late has been to claw his way to deuce, at best, before unraveling. It is extra important in those moments to make the first serves and be aggressive with the forehand. Novak has failed to do that in those moments of late.
 

calitennis127

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Kieran said:
In the second, Rafa increased the tempo and began to go for it more, but only really later in the set, and at the start I had the dreadful fear of Nole breaking in the first game, like he has in virtually every set he's won against Rafa since Flushing Meadows.

I disagree there. Djokovic allowed the Miami and YEC finals to get much stickier than they should have been in the second sets. I was worried about how he would come out at the start of the second set today, and, to my great disappointment, it was an ugly repeat.

Kieran said:
Did Nole play bad today? I think his level dipped somewhere in the Gulbis match, and hasn't been as high as some of us would have expected, but he wasn't so bad, while definitely not playing his best...

Well, he hasn't played his best in many of the matches he has beaten Nadal in. The difference appears to be that in the Slams, his penchant for not consolidating leads is much more problematic in its ramifications than in the MS finals.
 

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Nadal hit 44 winners to Djokovic's 43. He also had more forced errors (as in forced his opponents to hit more errors).
 

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I thought Djokovic did play badly as soon as he got frustrated with the crowd and the way Rafa was getting everything back. Then of course, there was the small matter of him throwing up in the 4th set. Just wasn't his day today was it!

He wasn't terrible, but he was certainly further from his maximum potential than Rafa was.
 

JesuslookslikeBorg

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its his hagridden and palsied brain..seems to go on holiday too much now in major finals.

might as well have Judith chalmers playing instead of him.

l
 

Front242

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At this rate he's on a collision course for breaking Lendl's record in major finals. Not an honour btw and hopefully next time he reaches a slam final he wins it. Unless Fed miraculously is the opponent he's facing, which is pretty damn unlikely at this stage but just saying ;)
 

JesuslookslikeBorg

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Federer sorted djokovic out at Wimbledon 2012..probably do it again if they meet this year.
 

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People who beat Rafa in these Grand Slam situations are the ones that play high risk and happens to having a good day, week. Statistically, it's very hard to be that consistent playing high risk, which is why Nole was so amazing the year he won 3 slams.

Basically, this day isn't one of those days. He didn't play bad. Just not amazing. And you need amazing to beat Rafa when he's injury free.
 

Front242

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^ No opponent needed to be amazing to beat Nadal today, just more focused, less errors and not botching leads or losing the match on a double fault. The fact that Djokovic was far from amazing made it all the more easy for Nadal to win, which he deserved to as he committed less slop but it wasn't that clean a match from either guy. The stats were close.