Correlation between winning warm-up tourney and doing well at RG

[GameSetAndMath]

There were 16 warm-up tourneys for RG. Actually 4 of them are south American tournaments before IW and so cannot properly be considered as warm-up tournaments for RG and nonetheless let us include them. Also, I am of the opinion that the two tourneys in the week before RG should not be considered either as most players planning to go deep at RG would not want to play in them and so they are likely to produce strange winners. Let us discuss the correlation between winning warm-up tourneys and performing well at RG in this thread.

Two of them, Andy and Novak, won two titles each and so you see only 14 names in the list below.
The real 10 warm up tourneys are highlighted.

First here is the list of champions.

1. Victor Estrella (Chile) --- Lost in 1st round
2. Pabloc Cuevas (Indoor Clay at Sao Paulo) --- Lost in 3rd round
3. David Ferrer (Rio)
4. Rafael Nadal (BA, Argentina)
5. Jack Sock (Houston)
6. Martin Klizan (Morocoo, Africa) --- Lost in 2nd round
7. Novak (Monte Carlo and Rome)
8. Kei Nishikori (Barcelona)
9. Garcia-Lopez (Bucharest) --- Lost in 1st round
10. Andy Murray (Munich and Madrid)
11. Roger Federer (Istanbul)
12. Richard Gasquet (Estoril)
13. Dominic Thiem (Nice) --- Lost in 2nd round
14. Thomas Belluci (Geneva) Lost in 2nd round

So far, GGL and Victor Estrella are flops going out in the first round and that too I believe in
straight sets and also to relatively unknown players.

Jack Sock not only won his first round match, but caused an upset of #10 Grigor in doing so.

The jury is out on others.

 

[Federberg]

If you're talking about correlations you'll have to broaden your sample. And it's got to be over a time period not just this year. Better look at more than the last 10yrs though coz a certain Spanish guy would play havoc with the data otherwise

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If you're talking about correlations you'll have to broaden your sample. And it's got to be over a time period not just this year. Better look at more than the last 10yrs though coz a certain Spanish guy would play havoc with the data otherwise

Yes, it needs to be done with at least about 10 years data to make valid inferences. That kind of stuff is better done by ElDude (assuming he can apply stat to something other than aging phenomena). Since, I have short attention span, I am just going to see the correlation with just this year's data, just for fun.

 

[Billie]

I see the correlation between 2011 and 2014 where winning Masters 1000 tournaments on clay didn't mean a darn thing for those years' FO.:laydownlaughing

 

[mrzz]

Well, boys and girls, if are talking about correlation we need to specify things a little bit more, shouldn't we? In fact, there are no series to be correlated in this case. "Correlation" here is being used in its broader sense, as opposed to the mathematical one. (at least untill someone comes up with the series we want to find the correlation, which is possible, but requires some analysis).

So what we're looking for, I would guess, is what is the probability of doing well once you won a warm-up tourney. That can be straight forwardly calculated by someone with the will to do it (why a specific name keeps poping in my head...?), but I agree with Federberg that something around 10 years of data would be wise.

The problem is that we have two heavy out-liers in the set, Nadal and Djokovic. As for now, Nadal's (historical) probabilities of winning RG once he wins the warm-ups are around 90%, while Djokovic's are zero. You could drill it down to reaching the final, the semis, and so on..., but it would be wise to leave at least Nadal out of the set.

 

[Billie]

Exactly right Mrzz....0% for all except Rafa.....Did Roger win a clay tourney before FO in 2009? In the last 10 years, those are the only ones who won RG....I may be a bit slow, but I really don't understand the thread. I know GSM will explain it to me nicely.

 

[DarthFed]

Roger won Madrid before RG 09 and that was back when it was after Rome on the calendar.

 

[Billie]

Roger won Madrid before RG 09 and that was back when it was after Rome on the calendar.

Ah....that was after that brutal semi final between Nole and Rafa, how could I forget that.:cover

Thanks Darth

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As I said in the title of the thread, we are looking for correlation between winning a warm-up tourney and doing well in RG. No, we are not looking for correlation between winning a warm-up tourney and winning RG. Obviously, even ten year's data won't be of much use in that regard.

By doing well, I mean something basic like, say reaching second week at RG which is a reasonable expectation to have on such folks. This is fair as well as there could potentially be 16 different warm-up winners while there can only be one RG winner.

I think warm-up tourneys have some meaning at RG in comparison to other slams. First of all,
there are just two weeks of warm-up for AO and Wimby (until last year) and so they cannot mean
too much. Even for USO, although there four or five weeks of warm-up several tourneys played
during that period are actually played on clay or grass. But, RG has a dedicated seven weeks long warm-up season in which all tourneys are played exclusively on clay. Hence, my interest in assessing the correlation.

Incidentally, if Rafa wins RG this year, this will be the first year in which he has won RG without winning a warm-up tourney in the prime clay warm-up season.

Fed has won Wimbledon with as well as without winning a warm-up grass tourney. Same story with Fed at USO. He was won it in some seasons without winning a warm-up event. Probably same is true of Novak at AO as well. Novak sure has won AO many times without participating in any warm up tourneys and this year for example without winning a warm-up tourney. I am not sure whether
Novak has actually won AO in some year after winning a warm-up event.

 

[Moxie]

Out of curiosity, I went a few years back to check. We know what Rafa and Roger had done prior, and that takes us back 10 years. So I went back 10 more. Listed are only clay titles won prior to FO:

2004: Gaudio - none (ranked #44)
2003: Ferrero - Monte Carlo, Valencia
2002: Albert Costa - none (no title since 1999)
2001: Kuerten - Buenos Aires, Acapulco, MC, (and RU at Rome, btw)
2000: Kuerten - Hamburg
1999: Agassi - none
1998: Moyà - MC
1997: Kuerten - none (ranked #66)
1996: Kafelnikov - Prague
1995: Muster - MC, Rome

The only really dominant clay year in the bunch was Kuerten's 2001.

 

[Moxie]

Sorry, GSM, I was posting those past RG winners and their warm-up wins while you were posting your clarification of intent, so I didn't see it. Two things about your clarification: it would really take a lot of cross-analysing of data to find out how well those who have won warm-ups do at RG, and I'm not sure even our best statisticians would have the patience, esp. to go back something like 10 years. (You have already said you don't.) The other one is, why not grass, as well? It's a short season, but focused on a specific and more anomalous surface, all played right before the Slam. I get leaving off HCs, because the bulk of the tournaments are played on them, and most players' games are geared toward hards. However, it is funny, and perhaps because we've had 10 years of Rafa, but we think nothing of an elite player winning the other Slams without winning a big tune-up event prior, but not the French. However, as you can see by the list I provided, prior to Rafa, that was not so unusual. I hadn't yet drawn any conclusions from that list, but to that specific point, it illuminates a bit.

 

[brokenshoelace]

In form players tend to do well. That's how it typically works.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Today's update. Title winners Martin Klizan and Thomas Belluci are gone. Title winner Pablo Cuevas wins another round.

No shame in Belluci losing to Kei. Also, Klizan's loss is not an upset as he lost to Simon.

Pablo Cuevas is projected to play Gael Monfils in R3. I think that will be an interesting match.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Sorry, GSM, I was posting those past RG winners and their warm-up wins while you were posting your clarification of intent, so I didn't see it. Two things about your clarification: it would really take a lot of cross-analysing of data to find out how well those who have won warm-ups do at RG, and I'm not sure even our best statisticians would have the patience, esp. to go back something like 10 years. (You have already said you don't.) The other one is, why not grass, as well? It's a short season, but focused on a specific and more anomalous surface, all played right before the Slam. I get leaving off HCs, because the bulk of the tournaments are played on them, and most players' games are geared toward hards. However, it is funny, and perhaps because we've had 10 years of Rafa, but we think nothing of an elite player winning the other Slams without winning a big tune-up event prior, but not the French. However, as you can see by the list I provided, prior to Rafa, that was not so unusual. I hadn't yet drawn any conclusions from that list, but to that specific point, it illuminates a bit.

No problem. I did not mean to define the thread strictly. I was just providing further explanation as some people asked for it. What you have to say is definitely relevant to the topic of the thread.
Also, this is more of an informal thread and is not a serious scientific study.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Out of curiosity, I went a few years back to check. We know what Rafa and Roger had done prior, and that takes us back 10 years. So I went back 10 more. Listed are only clay titles won prior to FO:

2004: Gaudio - none (ranked #44)
2003: Ferrero - Monte Carlo, Valencia
2002: Albert Costa - none (no title since 1999)
2001: Kuerten - Buenos Aires, Acapulco, MC, (and RU at Rome, btw)
2000: Kuerten - Hamburg
1999: Agassi - none
1998: Moyà - MC
1997: Kuerten - none (ranked #66)
1996: Kafelnikov - Prague
1995: Muster - MC, Rome

The only really dominant clay year in the bunch was Kuerten's 2001.

Interesting to note that as many as four champions did it without winning a warm-up. I would not have guessed it.

 

[Billie]

Thanks for your explanation, GSM.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Another title winner goes home.

Pablo lead 2 sets to 1 and double break up in the 4th set, before collapsing to La Monf.

 

[Moxie]

Out of curiosity, I went a few years back to check. We know what Rafa and Roger had done prior, and that takes us back 10 years. So I went back 10 more. Listed are only clay titles won prior to FO:

2004: Gaudio - none (ranked #44)
2003: Ferrero - Monte Carlo, Valencia
2002: Albert Costa - none (no title since 1999)
2001: Kuerten - Buenos Aires, Acapulco, MC, (and RU at Rome, btw)
2000: Kuerten - Hamburg
1999: Agassi - none
1998: Moyà - MC
1997: Kuerten - none (ranked #66)
1996: Kafelnikov - Prague
1995: Muster - MC, Rome

The only really dominant clay year in the bunch was Kuerten's 2001.

Interesting to note that as many as four champions did it without winning a warm-up. I would not have guessed it.

I thought so, too. Gaudio is always everyone's outlier, though he was good on clay. Had Coria won that final, he had also won MC that year. Gaudio, btw, only ever won 3 titles in total! Costa would have been a surprise, not having won a title in 3 years. Kuerten was on the way up, so...ok. And Agassi is Agassi.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Well, the first week is over. Here are the unscientific results. 8 of the 14 clay court titlists moved on to second week. That is about 57% success rate.

As expected, last week's tournament winners are outliers (due to weak field in such tourneys).
0% of such titlists moved on to second week.

The South American titlists (these cannot really be considered warm-up tourneys) have mixed results. 50% of them moved on to second week.

Apart from the big four, the other four clay champions still in action are Ferrer, Kei, Gasquet and Sock.