Club 35+ and the age factor

[herios]

I kept monitoring for sometime this year how the older players, who are in their mid thirties and are still active, fare in comparison with their best. Condidering the current state of affairs in men tennis, when players are maturing later than decades sgo many peaking in their late twenties and some even in their early thirties, it is intriguing to analyze how long they can keep it up. Some can do pretty well in their 30-34 range, however after that it seems the downhill starts.

Here is the list of currently active players, who are 35+ years old:
( I put their current ranking vs. their Career best ranking in brackets as well as their age:

2. (1) R. Federer .37y
62. (25) J. Benneteau 36y
71. (12) F. Lopez 37y
79. (23). G.G. Lopez 35y
___________
110 (8) M. Youzhny 36y retired
____________

113. (33) P. Lorenzi 36y
137. (14) I. Karlovic 39y
138. (21) G. Muller 35y
140. (37) C. Berlocq 35y
147. (3) D. Ferrer 36y
156. (50) St. Robert 38y
165. (37) N. Mahut 36y
232. (5) T. Robredo 36y

Note: these were the rankings 2 weeks ago right after Youzhny retired.

There are some more players who are still playing at such an age like J. Melzer or V. Estrella Burgos, but they are not ranked in the top 300.
What this revealed to me is that with one exception, Roger, all of them had fallen well below their very best and clearly are not as competitive anymore.
This analysis is useful for me to see also how much expectations we could have from others like Nadal and Djokovic going forward.
IMO, around 34-36 the window of opprtunities will close for all of them. Some will fall off the cliff earlier, as it used to be, but the fitter ones seems that they can stretch their career well into the mid thirties, but not beyond.

 

[monfed]

Look in the 90s and even upto early 00s, 30-32 was old. In this era that got shifted to 34-36 due to a multitude of reasons such as giving these grinders slow ass courts with heavy balls all year long for them to grind down the youngsters with their experience and defense. This was not at all the case in the 90s so younger players with faster reflexes could bulldoze the old guys like Sampras etc.

If the state of tennis remains the same where players like Ziraffe lose 1 and 2 to post prime faker on the fastest HC on tour then it will be the new standard.

 

[Moxie]

I love the idea of "mud 30s." I know it was a type-o, but it was a pretty good one. It well-describes results, and their foot-work.

 

[herios]

I love the idea of "mud 30s." I know it was a type-o, but it was a pretty good one. It well-describes results, and their foot-work.

Ha, Ha. Corrected.

 

[herios]

Look in the 90s and even upto early 00s, 30-32 was old. In this era that got shifted to 34-36 due to a multitude of reasons such as giving these grinders slow ass courts with heavy balls all year long for them to grind down the youngsters with their experience and defense. This was not at all the case in the 90s so younger players with faster reflexes could bulldoze the old guys like Sampras etc.

If the state of tennis remains the same where players like Ziraffe lose 1 and 2 to post prime faker on the fastest HC on tour then it will be the new standard.

Zirraffe, as you call him is not good on fast surfaces. His best results are on clay and slow HC.

 

[monfed]

Zirraffe, as you call him is not good on fast surfaces. His best results are on clay and slow HC.

Agreed but in general players like croc should be losing on fast HC against younger faster opponents, it should atleast be a three setter. If they're not even pushing faker then why would he ever stop winning?

 

[herios]

Agreed but in general players like croc should be losing on fast HC against younger faster opponents, it should atleast be a three setter. If they're not even pushing faker then why would he ever stop winning?

Well, the youngers are not good enough. That is the issue.

 

[Fiero425]

Well, the youngers are not good enough. That is the issue.

But they're still displacing the senior players! I had no idea players like Ferrer and Karlovic had dropped outside the top 100! :whistle:

 

[herios]

But they're still displacing the senior players! I had no idea players like Ferrer and Karlovic had dropped outside the top 100! :whistle:

Yeah, but these are the very old ones, those aged 30-34 are still massively present in the top 100.

EDIT:

Just counted them. There are 4 players aged 35+ in the top 100 and no less than 31 of them aged 30-34.
That makes 35% altogether over 30 in the top 100.

 

[El Dude]

From the early 70s until the 80s the tour got younger and younger; the early 70s was similar to now, with most of the top players being in their 30s. By the time we get to the 80s, players were declining in their late 20s, with a huge drop-off somewhere in the 30-32 range (as monfed pointed out). This remained the status quo into the 2000s, but has shifted rather radically over the last five years or so.

But here's the thing. I don't think this is as much Roger's generation as it is Nadal's/Djokovic's. Roger's generation is mostly retired - at least most of the top players: Safin, Ferrero, Roddick, Hewitt, Nalbandian, Davydenko, etc. Of the best players of this generation, only the very best (Roger) and Ferrer have lasted. The rest are in the next tier down - guys like Karlovic and Lopez. But Rafa, Novak, Stan, etc - these guys are still in prime form in their early 30s.

So maybe Roger is a kind of harbinger or emissary of an "older era" - players being able to maintain prime form into their 30s - but certainly not exemplary of his generation.

 

[herios]

Roger is a definite stand out, because of those listed past 35, he is the only one close to his best ranking.
He was able to win a few slams and masters after he turned 35, which is very rare.
The big question now is if his downhill has started this year or will he be able to still stay in the top 3 next year as well. Let's see how he closes this year first.

 

[El Dude]

I'm not optimistic. In fact, I think 2019 will be his last year. If he resurges then he can go out strongly; if he continues to fade, he'll have to admit he's done winning big titles, which will see his interest collapse completely. I think the Australian Open will tell us a lot. Obviously with a resurgent Novak, Roger is unlikely to defend his title. But we'll at least have a sense of whether he can start the year strong and compete with the big boys.

2019 will be a dogfight with Novak and Rafa, with Novak pulling away. 2020 will see Novak reign over a cluster of rising Next Genners, with Rafa fading. 2021 will see Rafa retire and Novak fading. 2022 will be Novak's last year. That would see Roger retiring at age 38, and Rafa and Novak both retiring at age 35. Or so I see it. As a wise man once said, "Difficult to see; always in motion is the future."

 

[Moxie]

I'm not optimistic. In fact, I think 2019 will be his last year. If he resurges then he can go out strongly; if he continues to fade, he'll have to admit he's done winning big titles, which will see his interest collapse completely. I think the Australian Open will tell us a lot. Obviously with a resurgent Novak, Roger is unlikely to defend his title. But we'll at least have a sense of whether he can start the year strong and compete with the big boys.

2019 will be a dogfight with Novak and Rafa, with Novak pulling away. 2020 will see Novak reign over a cluster of rising Next Genners, with Rafa fading. 2021 will see Rafa retire and Novak fading. 2022 will be Novak's last year. That would see Roger retiring at age 38, and Rafa and Novak both retiring at age 35. Or so I see it. As a wise man once said, "Difficult to see; always in motion is the future."

Not an unreasonable vision of the future. We'll see how it pans out.

 

[monfed]

dull will keep playing till he has the slam record since that is literally all he lives for.

faker is still too far behind to think about 20 but he'll also prolong his career if he's 2 or 3 near 20.

Both these pushers have wet dreams about overtaking Fed's slam count specially the spinbot.

 

[Fiero425]

dull will keep playing till he has the slam record since that is literally all he lives for.

faker is still too far behind to think about 20 but he'll also prolong his career if he's 2 or 3 near 20.

Both these pushers have wet dreams about overtaking Fed's slam count specially the spinbot.

Well Fledge hung on so long both these pushers & fakers own his arse! Check the record sometime! Most know that by now! :whistle: :cuckoo:

 

[monfed]

Well Fledge hung on so long both these pushers & fakers own his arse! Check the record sometime! Most know that by now! :whistle: :cuckoo:

It's so cute when you get triggered, Fiero. I love it.

 

[Moxie]

dull will keep playing till he has the slam record since that is literally all he lives for.

faker is still too far behind to think about 20 but he'll also prolong his career if he's 2 or 3 near 20.

Both these pushers have wet dreams about overtaking Fed's slam count specially the spinbot.

It's amazing the insight that you have into these players' dreams and desires. What are the chances that they actually have their own agendas?

 

[monfed]

It's amazing the insight that you have into these players' dreams and desires. What are the chances that they actually have their own agendas?

yes I'm extremely perceptive, it's a talent but talent is not required to read dull's mind since he's so predictable.

 

[Moxie]

yes I'm extremely perceptive, it's a talent but talent is not required to read dull's mind since he's so predictable.

Uh, huh. And empathetic as well. That's what makes you such a reliable predictor of the feelings and inclinations of others. I'm sure the otherwise nastiness is just a rhetorical flourish to keep people guessing what your real agenda is: deeply reading the psyches of tennis players. Nice job hiding your sensitivities under a bushel.

 

[Jelenafan]

Well Fledge hung on so long both these pushers & fakers own his arse! Check the record sometime! Most know that by now! :whistle: :cuckoo:

C’mmom Nadal owned him early, “hanging on” let Federer close the gap, somewhat. That losing head2head with Rafa is what it is.

Can’t have it both ways.