[Blog] 15 Up-and-Coming Players to Watch in 2015

[El Dude]

Here's a new blog post for your enjoyment. Thanks again to tented for adding the picture and videos!

 

[mrzz]

First, congratulations again El Dude, very good reading.

If Stefan Kozlov, say in two or three years time, start making waves, I'm pretty sure you´ll be like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4QpYV7y5ag


Anyway, since a similar discussion was going in a previous thread, I can't help but feel that Nishikori is a step ahead of Raonic and Dimitrov. Not only he has better results, but the way he faces the big three is different. The other two get in court knowing they have a chance to win, Nishikori enters to win.

With his high seeding, I guess that we'll see him constantly in the second week of majors in 2015. In fact, he has a decent shot of being even top 4 by RG. Even if I am quite impressed with what I saw from Raonic today, I still give Nishikori the edge over the rest.

 

[El Dude]

Funny, mrzz. It is really quite simple, though. I look mainly at age vs. rank. While it isn't an absolute formula, you can tell a lot about a player depending upon his rank at a certain age. That's part of what makes Coric exciting - a top 100 finish at age 18 is usually a very good sign. Zverev, too, and also Kyrgios. As for Kozlov, we'll know more at the end of 2016 when he's 18. But I think, for now, he's worth keeping peripheral vision, just for future reference. Being one of the 500 best players in the world at age 16 isn't too shabby!

As for Nishikori, I agree that he's a step ahead - but then again he's a year older than Raonic, a year and a half older than Dimitrov. But I also think that Kei is more explosive - he's more dangerous, really. Milos has the serve, and Dimitrov has the overall game and is pretty to watch, but Milos' upside is limited by being somewhat one-dimensional (or at least "one-and-a half-dimensional" like latter-day del Potro), and Grigor doesn't have that extra bite that may turn him into another Davydenko or Ferrer.

I figure that one of the three will have a breakthrough tournament in 2015 and win a Masters, and if one does it then it might encourage and give confidence to the other two.

 

[TsarMatt]

"Why you leave me out?"

Seriously, though, great write-up and a very enjoyable read. I agree with Dimitrov - he's just not there yet. He's got a beautiful game but he needs something extra. Something distinctively 'his' to take him that one step further.

 

[El Dude]

Haha, funny TsarMatt. To answer your tongue-in-cheek question somewhat seriously, the reason I don't include Bernie is that he's stagnated for three years in a row. Maybe he'll surprise us and get back on track this year, but I'm not holding my breath.

Some others--among many others--that I've got my eye on:

Roberto Bautista Agut, David Goffin, Jerzy Janowicz, Pablo Carreno Busta, Dusan Lajovic, Bernard Tomic, Victor Estrella Burgos, Lucas Pouille, Luke Saville, Elias Ymer, Christian Garin, Roman Safiullin, Andrey Rublev, Gianluigi Quinzi, etc.

 

[herios]

Haha, funny TsarMatt. To answer your tongue-in-cheek question somewhat seriously, the reason I don't include Bernie is that he's stagnated for three years in a row. Maybe he'll surprise us and get back on track this year, but I'm not holding my breath.

Some others--among many others--that I've got my eye on:

Roberto Bautista Agut, David Goffin, Jerzy Janowicz, Pablo Carreno Busta, Dusan Lajovic, Bernard Tomic, Victor Estrella Burgos, Lucas Pouille, Luke Saville, Elias Ymer, Christian Garin, Roman Safiullin, Andrey Rublev, Gianluigi Quinzi, etc.

And one of those part of the "etc." needs to be Diego Schwartzman, he may be small at stature, but he keeps pushing upwards. And he is the winner of the Year end Challenger Tour Final, now we will need to monitor how well he will do on the main tour.

 

[Riotbeard]

Great read as always dude. Aggressive predictions for Coric and Kyrgios. The fall made me a bit skeptical of Kyrgios, I could see stagnancy personally, more of a tomic than a rafa, but who knows?

 

[herios]

While I am optimistic about Nishikori and Raonic, I am actually less sold on Dimitrov.
Pretty face, pretty game and what else is there. Oh yes, a LOT of hype.
I am sorry to say that the "baby Fed" was in fact an exaggeration, to be honest and it did him no good.
He has no winning strategy IMO, way too defensive. As some mentioned, he has to add something to his game, absolutely. He will never have a first serve as effective as Roger, and he tries very rarely to move forward. He plays the role of retriever, like Nadal or Murray, but he is not as foxy as those two.

 

[El Dude]

herios, Grigor almost seems to be less than the sum of his parts. Still a very good player but without any area of pure excellence to make him great.

Riotbeard, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kyrgios stagnate for a year - maybe hang out in the 40s-50s range this year. But I think he's more hungry than Bernie and will make his move sooner than later. But I really wouldn't be surprised by a 2015 finish anywhere between #20 and #80.

 

[El Dude]

Alright, I added an addendum to the blog with 15 more to consider.

 

[Riotbeard]

herios, Grigor almost seems to be less than the sum of his parts. Still a very good player but without any area of pure excellence to make him great.

Riotbeard, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kyrgios stagnate for a year - maybe hang out in the 40s-50s range this year. But I think he's more hungry than Bernie and will make his move sooner than later. But I really wouldn't be surprised by a 2015 finish anywhere between #20 and #80.

I think he will be a force eventually (at least top 20). Has the talent to do big stuff, but seems potentially unreliable. I could see him becoming at best an erratic low-level great, but then again he is young still. I did dumb stuff when I was 19.

 

[herios]

herios, Grigor almost seems to be less than the sum of his parts. Still a very good player but without any area of pure excellence to make him great.

Riotbeard, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kyrgios stagnate for a year - maybe hang out in the 40s-50s range this year. But I think he's more hungry than Bernie and will make his move sooner than later. But I really wouldn't be surprised by a 2015 finish anywhere between #20 and #80.

I think he will be a force eventually (at least top 20). Has the talent to do big stuff, but seems potentially unreliable. I could see him becoming at best an erratic low-level great, but then again he is young still. I did dumb stuff when I was 19.

Kyrgios Is very green at the moment. And that is actually good, because there is a lot of time ahead of him.
But, he will have to develop his IQ tennis as well, because without it he will be exposed. Yiou saw what happened in the match with Robredo at the USO. He was figured out through the match then he was sent packing.
This will come in time, I am sure.
What my main concern is in regards to him, are the frequent injuries early on as a teenager. Murat said the same thing, he is very tall to be a great player. But he may become a Delpo or Cilic, because they have similar statures.

 

[El Dude]

I think he will be a force eventually (at least top 20). Has the talent to do big stuff, but seems potentially unreliable. I could see him becoming at best an erratic low-level great, but then again he is young still. I did dumb stuff when I was 19.

19 is arguably the Dumbest Age.

Kyrgios Is very green at the moment. And that is actually good, because there is a lot of time ahead of him.
But, he will have to develop his IQ tennis as well, because without it he will be exposed. Yiou saw what happened in the match with Robredo at the USO. He was figured out through the match then he was sent packing.
This will come in time, I am sure.
What my main concern is in regards to him, are the frequent injuries early on as a teenager. Murat said the same thing, he is very tall to be a great player. But he may become a Delpo or Cilic, because they have similar statures.

Yes, true. I like the Delpo and Cilic comps. He might end up playing the spoiler to Coric and Zverez down the line.

 

[herios]

I think he will be a force eventually (at least top 20). Has the talent to do big stuff, but seems potentially unreliable. I could see him becoming at best an erratic low-level great, but then again he is young still. I did dumb stuff when I was 19.

19 is arguably the Dumbest Age.

Kyrgios Is very green at the moment. And that is actually good, because there is a lot of time ahead of him.
But, he will have to develop his IQ tennis as well, because without it he will be exposed. Yiou saw what happened in the match with Robredo at the USO. He was figured out through the match then he was sent packing.
This will come in time, I am sure.
What my main concern is in regards to him, are the frequent injuries early on as a teenager. Murat said the same thing, he is very tall to be a great player. But he may become a Delpo or Cilic, because they have similar statures.

Yes, true. I like the Delpo and Cilic comps. He might end up playing the spoiler to Coric and Zverez down the line.

OK, now in order to mirror those two, Kyrgios will have to move up quickly this year. Just a reminder, Delpo was ranked 12 when he turned 20 and Marin was ranked 22.
Nick will have to play catch up if he does not make a move this spring already!

 

[El Dude]

OK, now in order to mirror those two, Kyrgios will have to move up quickly this year. Just a reminder, Delpo was ranked 12 when he turned 20 and Marin was ranked 22.
Nick will have to play catch up if he does not make a move this spring already!

It doesn't have to be the exact same trajectory, and I think if you're Kyrgios there are aspects of Delpo's and Cilic's careers that you want to avoid. Both had early career set-backs, rising pretty high (especially Delpo) and then struggling for various reasons.

But yeah, Kyrgios is the same age in 2015 as Delpo and Cilic were in 2008. But given his year-end age 19 ranking (#52), he's actually a bit ahead of Cilic (#71) and not far behind Delpo (#44). I see no reason why he can't keep pace with Cilic at least and finish in the 20s. Delpo's #9 ranking at age 20 might be a bit harder to equal!

 

[herios]

OK, now in order to mirror those two, Kyrgios will have to move up quickly this year. Just a reminder, Delpo was ranked 12 when he turned 20 and Marin was ranked 22.
Nick will have to play catch up if he does not make a move this spring already!

It doesn't have to be the exact same trajectory, and I think if you're Kyrgios there are aspects of Delpo's and Cilic's careers that you want to avoid. Both had early career set-backs, rising pretty high (especially Delpo) and then struggling for various reasons.

But yeah, Kyrgios is the same age in 2015 as Delpo and Cilic were in 2008. But given his year-end age 19 ranking (#52), he's actually a bit ahead of Cilic (#71) and not far behind Delpo (#44). I see no reason why he can't keep pace with Cilic at least and finish in the 20s. Delpo's #9 ranking at age 20 might be a bit harder to equal!

Of course no one wants to have their career plagued with injuries like DelPo had, not to get stuck in the range of 10-35 ranking, if you have higher ambitions.
But as far as the ranking numbers you posted here for Delpo and Cilic (44 and 71), that is where they were at 19y and 4 months old. In the following 8 months both of them leapt Delpo from 44 to 12 and Cilic from 71 to 22. Those second numbers I posted were their ranking as of Sep. 2008, when both turned 20y. That is only 4 months away for Nick. The point is both JM and Marin were having very good years when they were 19.

 

[herios]

Many of the up and comers, except those who have good chances to challenge to the very top, Kei, Milos and Dimi, feature this week in Auckland and Sydney. A very good opportunity for them to get their season going and get some good experience under their belt.

 

[FastNatr]

Spot on with Dimitrov. A few years ago when everybody was talking about him I didn't see much, but in the last year or so he's become legitimately excellent. Nishikori has improved but I think his style is still too inherently defensive to win a slam. He will always run up against some strong flat hitter that will find a way to blast him off court. Coric looks good but to me he's very reminiscent of someone like Ryan Harrison. Though, to be fair, Harrison could have a future ahead of him.

 

[herios]

Coric looks good but to me he's very reminiscent of someone like Ryan Harrison. Though, to be fair, Harrison could have a future ahead of him.

I hope Coric will not be anything like Harrison. That would be very disappointing.:speechless:

 

[herios]

Haha, funny TsarMatt. To answer your tongue-in-cheek question somewhat seriously, the reason I don't include Bernie is that he's stagnated for three years in a row. Maybe he'll surprise us and get back on track this year, but I'm not holding my breath.

I think Bernie will surprise in a positive way. He seems to be more fit, movement has improved and his results so far are very good, that loss to Nishikori is nothing to be ashamed about.
My feeling is he is fired up by the buzz Kyrgios and Kokkinakis got and he should be.