Australian Open 2014 Draw

[Goldenboy]

So since the draw is in about 5 hours time I thought it would make sense to post a thread about it.

The draw will take place at 10:30 am local time/ 0:30 am CET/ 11:30 pm GMT/ 6:30 pm EST.

This is a livestream link. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QMqg-viy9Q&feature=share

Hope Rafa gets a good draw! lease:

 

[Kieran]

Thanks, Golden Boy!

Hard to believe it's actually upon us. I hope it's a tourney filled with upsets, drama and great matches. I expect it will be. The usual questions are upon us:

Who inherits Federer in the QF?

Who gets Murray?

Is there a good draw for some youngsters to gain some ground and confidence?

"A good draw" for the top two is whatever draw they get. It's hard to see anyone stopping them reaching the final, but if either of them is upset along the way, it could really come from anywhere...

 

[shawnbm]

It is going to be exciting any way one looks at it. I can't wait to hear what happens.

 

[brokenshoelace]

1- Rafael Nadal
2- Novak Djokovic
3- David Ferrer
4- Andy Murray
5- Juan Martin del Potro
6- Roger Federer
7- Tomáš Berdych
8- Stanislas Wawrinka
9- Richard Gasquet
10- Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
11- Milos Raonic
12- Tommy Haas
13- John Isner
14- Mikhail Youzhny
15- Fabio Fognini
16-Kei Nishikori

So these are the top 16 seeds, and I'm going to do my least favorite thing (other than surface discussion) and speculate on potential matches that will probably never materialize.

The seeds are interesting in that there is plenty of uncertainty. For instance, in most slams in the past few years, we generally had an idea about what would be better for the top 2 seeds as far as who lands in their quarter, half, etc... However, with Federer's form being so shaky, Murray's back being troublesome, and question marks about Del Potro at the AO, so much is unknown.

For example, is it better to have Ferrer or Murray in your half? Under normal circumstances, this would be a no-brainer. But given Murray's return from injury and unknown form, he might not make it to the semis to begin with, meaning it's actually better to get HIM. Of course, that is also dangerous because what if he plays well and gets there? If I'm Novak, I'd probably wouldn't want the risk and just hope for Ferrer. On this surface, he's a nightmare match-up for David and will beat him regardless. Meanwhile, Ferrer has given Nadal more trouble on hard courts than many are willing to admit.

The quarters are super interesting to me. Berdych's form has been iffy, and Federer doesn't seem to be playing well enough to pose a serious threat to Djokovic or Nadal. If I'm Rafa, I'd be hoping to avoid JMDP (even though Nadal would be favored on this surface). Federer remains Federer, but it's a huge ask for him to beat Nadal here, while the latter has historically dominated Wawrinka and Berdych. Novak would probably hope to avoid Wawrinka and Del Potro (though of course he'd be the favorite against everyone).

As far as 4th round opponents, there aren't too many daberous ones. There's Haas (though he doesn't have much of a shot against the top 2 on this surface, so I'm hoping he gets a decent draw as I'd like to see him do well). Tsonga's always dangerous, and nobody wants to play Isner, regardless of form or surface. Everyone else seems kinda meh, except maybe Raonic.

 

[Kieran]

If I'm Novak, I'd probably wouldn't want the risk and just hope for Ferrer. On this surface, he's a nightmare match-up for David and will beat him regardless. Meanwhile, Ferrer has given Nadal more trouble on hard courts than many are willing to admit.

Whatever way you spin it, this is true. Ferrer has beaten Rafa several times when you'd least want him to, or expect it. I'd still fancy rafa here against him if they both make the semis and play, but Ferrer has an immense attitude and could be sticky.

DP is probably the last guy Nole wants in the QF. He won't be frightened of him, but DP has the potential to drain Nole's batteries seriously if they get stuck in a brawl...

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Following in Broken's footsteps, I clarify couple of things so there is no misunderstanding. Couple of definitions:

Cupcake Draw= It is a draw , usually held in your local church, where some ladies bake yummy cupcakes, and there is a draw to determine who takes them home. That is a cupcake draw.

Rigged Draw= An imaginary concept created by people who should have taken the blue pill.

Easy Draw= Again, no such thing when you are playing professionals. 7 matches has to be won to claim victory, and no one has ever done it by luck, or easy draws...even one slam wonders have deserved that one slam by beating everyone on their paths.

 

[Denis]

I'd be very surprised if we are not having a Novak - Rafa final. Depending on whether they can avoid these two I think Ferrer, Tsonga, Nishikori and Monfils are going to have a pretty good tourney. Maybe even Hewitt might make the second week.

 

[Denis]

Following in Broken's footsteps, I clarify couple of things so there is no misunderstanding. Couple of definitions:

Cupcake Draw= It is a draw , usually held in your local church, where some ladies bake yummy cupcakes, and there is a draw to determine who takes them home. That is a cupcake draw.

Rigged Draw= An imaginary concept created by people who should have taken the blue pill.

Easy Draw= Again, no such thing when you are playing professionals. 7 matches has to be won to claim victory, and no one has ever done it by luck, or easy draws...even one slam wonders have deserved that one slam by beating everyone on their paths.

No need to rig the draw anymore with the two top contenders being in the first two slots. It's actually a disappointment to me that we can't have the conspiracy theories anymore like in the good old days with (the weak version of) Murray consistently ending up in Rafa's half while (the young version of) Federer ended up in Novak's half. Those were the days!

 

[Kieran]

If it isn't Rafa-Nole, who else could it be? What are the odds on neither of them making it? Pretty slim, I imagine...

 

[brokenshoelace]

If I'm Novak, I'd probably wouldn't want the risk and just hope for Ferrer. On this surface, he's a nightmare match-up for David and will beat him regardless. Meanwhile, Ferrer has given Nadal more trouble on hard courts than many are willing to admit.

Whatever way you spin it, this is true. Ferrer has beaten Rafa several times when you'd least want him to, or expect it. I'd still fancy rafa here against him if they both make the semis and play, but Ferrer has an immense attitude and could be sticky.

DP is probably the last guy Nole wants in the QF. He won't be frightened of him, but DP has the potential to drain Nole's batteries seriously if they get stuck in a brawl...

I agree 100% about Ferrer. Because he gets beaten by Nadal on clay routinely, people just assume "oh look, another Spaniard lying down for Rafa." I find it a bit dubious to be honest. First of all, who does Nadal NOT beat on clay routinely? Just because Ferrer is good enough to reach the latter stages and play Nadal more than most doesn't mean he should be punished for it. On hard court, he's done extremely well, including two Grand Slam wins. Okay, I don't want to be disingenuous, the second one doesn't count for much, since Nadal tore his hamstring in the 3rd/4th game of the match. However, they have played more than enough on hards to see that Ferrer troubles him. He moves very well, is one of the few who can hang with him physically (especially in the Australian heat), and actually plays him with the right tactics. To be honest, I always feel a little uneasy when they play on hards.

Obviously, neither Nadal nor Djokovic would like to play Del Potro in the quarters, but I don't think he'll drain Novak's batteries here. In fact, I think it's quite the opposite. If it's a night match, then Del Potro can catch fire and then it's dangerous. But I really don't think Del Potro will have enough energy in the heat to potentially go five sets with Djokovic, especially with the kind of barrage he's going to be dealing, and withstanding.

 

[Denis]

There are good things and bad things about their current dominance. The good thing is that the anticipated final might actually materialize, which creates additional legacy bonus points. The downside is that many of the other matches will feel pretty insignificant. More contenders makes the rest of the tourney more interesting.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I'd be very surprised if we are not having a Novak - Rafa final. Depending on whether they can avoid these two I think Ferrer, Tsonga, Nishikori and Monfils are going to have a pretty good tourney. Maybe even Hewitt might make the second week.

I agree about the Rafa-Novak final (highest seeded player should be mentioned first ), and I really hope Hewitt gets a favorable draw since I too think he can make a nice little run given the right circumstances.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Following in Broken's footsteps, I clarify couple of things so there is no misunderstanding. Couple of definitions:

Cupcake Draw= It is a draw , usually held in your local church, where some ladies bake yummy cupcakes, and there is a draw to determine who takes them home. That is a cupcake draw.

Rigged Draw= An imaginary concept created by people who should have taken the blue pill.

Easy Draw= Again, no such thing when you are playing professionals. 7 matches has to be won to claim victory, and no one has ever done it by luck, or easy draws...even one slam wonders have deserved that one slam by beating everyone on their paths.

No need to rig the draw anymore with the two top contenders being in the first two slots. It's actually a disappointment to me that we can't have the conspiracy theories anymore like in the good old days with (the weak version of) Murray consistently ending up in Rafa's half while (the young version of) Federer ended up in Novak's half. Those were the days!

In all seriousness though, Murray and Nadal did end up in each other's draws a big amount of times. I remember this because Iona always lamented that fact due to them being her two favorites.

 

[Denis]

To be honest, I cannot remember a draw I anticipated less then this one for a long time. No real stakes I think. Maybe DP like Broken and Kieran are pointing out could be a spoiler for both Novak and Rafa. Wawrinka maybe for Novak. Ferrer for Rafa. Murray, well we really have to see. But that's about it.

 

[Denis]

Following in Broken's footsteps, I clarify couple of things so there is no misunderstanding. Couple of definitions:

Cupcake Draw= It is a draw , usually held in your local church, where some ladies bake yummy cupcakes, and there is a draw to determine who takes them home. That is a cupcake draw.

Rigged Draw= An imaginary concept created by people who should have taken the blue pill.

Easy Draw= Again, no such thing when you are playing professionals. 7 matches has to be won to claim victory, and no one has ever done it by luck, or easy draws...even one slam wonders have deserved that one slam by beating everyone on their paths.

No need to rig the draw anymore with the two top contenders being in the first two slots. It's actually a disappointment to me that we can't have the conspiracy theories anymore like in the good old days with (the weak version of) Murray consistently ending up in Rafa's half while (the young version of) Federer ended up in Novak's half. Those were the days!

In all seriousness though, Murray and Nadal did end up in each other's draws a big amount of times. I remember this because Iona always lamented that fact due to them being her two favorites.

I know. I am mocking myself a bit with it. I got so frustrated with Federer ending up in Novaks draw in the 2011 timeframe.

 

[brokenshoelace]

If it isn't Rafa-Nole, who else could it be? What are the odds on neither of them making it? Pretty slim, I imagine...

Pretty slim indeed. The Murray injury is the main factor behind this. He won 2 slams, including Wimbledon and was reaching finals routinely. He made 4 finals in 4 slams from Wimbledon 2012 to Wimbledon 2013, having missed the 2013 FO. That's pretty damn impressive. Then with all the momentum behind him he had back problems, which I assume affected his level at the US Open and that has been a set-back. I imagine things wouldn't have been nearly as straightforward (on paper, since the tourney hasn't been played yet, and anything can happen) had Murray not gotten injured, especially with his impressive track record down under, despite never having won the tourney (final in 2010, final in 2011, a terrific semi final showing in 2012, and a final again in 2013).

And obviously, there's Roger being old, which we're finally starting to accept now. For the first time in a while, there isn't a true "big 4" to speak of (unless Roger recaptures his form, which to be honest, would be for the best) so it's interesting to see who occupies the void. Ferrer will be there because he almost always is, but he's unlikely to go all the way. Del Potro interests me greatly. I know some will say Roger was MIA last year too, but last year, it was still surprisingly. In other words, he was in everyone's choices to make the semis, but surprised us by failing to do so. This year, it's almost expected that he won't...

 

[brokenshoelace]

To be honest, I cannot remember a draw I anticipated less then this one for a long time. No real stakes I think. Maybe DP like Broken and Kieran are pointing out could be a spoiler for both Novak and Rafa. Wawrinka maybe for Novak. Ferrer for Rafa. Murray, well we really have to see. But that's about it.

I'm anticipating the draw because it's a sign of how close the tournament is. It's my favorite tournament of the year. But as far as the actual implications of the draw, I agree. Though we always make big deals out of the draw only for the usual suspects to come through. Maybe this time it's the opposite. We think it's a given and something big happens. I do like the uncertainty surrounding some players though. It will make their matches more interesting. For instance, I usually don't make it a point to watch Del Potro until the second week (unless he has an interesting match in the first week), but this time, I'm greatly interested in seeing his form. Ditto for Tsonga/Berdych...

I'm rooting for the old guns though, because of the fact that the draw is open for everyone (except the top 2, who are expected to make it through routinely). I'm hoping Hewitt and Haas have nice runs.

 

[Kieran]

I know some will say Roger was MIA last year too, but last year, it was still surprisingly. In other words, he was in everyone's choices to make the semis, but surprised us by failing to do so. This year, it's almost expected that he won't...

Well, Roger made the semis last year. Remember? He beat Tsonga in a long QF and Murray took him out in a longwinded semi.

Unless of course, you meant at other slams...

 

[brokenshoelace]

I know some will say Roger was MIA last year too, but last year, it was still surprisingly. In other words, he was in everyone's choices to make the semis, but surprised us by failing to do so. This year, it's almost expected that he won't...

Well, Roger made the semis last year. Remember? He beat Tsonga in a long QF and Murray took him out in a longwinded semi.

Unless of course, you meant at other slams...

Yeah, I'm referring to every slam since, when he REALLY started stinking up the joint. At the AO last year, Roger was coming off his great 2012 run, and a WTF final showing. It was only after the AO that everything started really going downhill.

 

[Kieran]

Okay, let's guess a few stories from this years Oz, while we wait for the draw.

Once more, there'll be a scheduling lottery/scandal: matches that start at 2am and finish after breakfast, with the last batch of lines people reporting for duty in their pyjamas.

There's bound to be a mini riot somewhere, maybe in the women's changing room.

One coach will be bribed to send signals to the opposing player and the umpire will catch him and not know what to do.

The heat will cause a whole days play to be suspended, except Nadal who'll be forced to play on due to a conspiracy to get rid of him.

Anybody any guesses on what'll make the news apart from tennis?