Another Record for Roger

[El Dude]

So Roger Federer is currently #2 in the Race to London rankings, which go like so:

1. Djokovic 8150
2. Federer 6880
3. Nadal 6550
4. Wawrinka 4725
5. Cilic 4000

I only put the top five because this isn't about the World Tour Finals, but what it is about is the year-end rankings. Barring a catastrophic collapse, Roger Federer will almost certainly finish the year in the top 3. There are two Masters tournaments (1000), four ATP 500s, and the WTF (1500), so 5500 points up for grabs in tournaments other than a few ATP 250s. Federer is over 2000 points ahead of Wawrinka, so not only would Roger have to do terribly, but Wawrinka would have to do serious damage.

So I think Roger's top 3 ranking is safe. This got me thinking - how many 33-year olds have finished the year in the top 3 since the inception of the ATP rankings in 1973?

Answer: NONE.

Andre Agassi finished 2002 at #2, but he was 32. In 2003 he finished at #4, in 2004 at #8 and 2005 at #7.

What about Jimmy Connors? He also finished his age 33 season--1985--at #4, then #8, #4, and #7 in his age 34-36 seasons before dropping out of the top 10 for good.

Ken Rosewall you say? Well he would have if there were ATP rankings in the late 60s and early 70s, but by the time 1973 rolled around--and Rosewall was turning 39--he finished #6, with 35-year old Rod Laver finishing #8. Rosewall actually stayed in the top 10 for a couple more years into his 40s, while Laver fell out in 1974.

So that's it. Roger Federer--again, barring catastrophe--will do something no 33-year has done in 42 years of ATP rankings: finish in the top 3. Cool beans, that.

 

[Luxilon Borg]

So Roger Federer is currently #2 in the Race to London rankings, which go like so:

1. Djokovic 8150
2. Federer 6880
3. Nadal 6550
4. Wawrinka 4725
5. Cilic 4000

I only put the top five because this isn't about the World Tour Finals, but what it is about is the year-end rankings. Barring a catastrophic collapse, Roger Federer will almost certainly finish the year in the top 3. There are two Masters tournaments (1000), four ATP 500s, and the WTF (1500), so 5500 points up for grabs in tournaments other than a few ATP 250s. Federer is over 2000 points ahead of Wawrinka, so not only would Roger have to do terribly, but Wawrinka would have to do serious damage.

So I think Roger's top 3 ranking is safe. This got me thinking - how many 33-year olds have finished the year in the top 3 since the inception of the ATP rankings in 1973?

Answer: NONE.

Andre Agassi finished 2002 at #2, but he was 32. In 2003 he finished at #4, in 2004 at #8 and 2005 at #7.

What about Jimmy Connors? He also finished his age 33 season--1985--at #4, then #8, #4, and #7 in his age 34-36 seasons before dropping out of the top 10 for good.

Ken Rosewall you say? Well he would have if there were ATP rankings in the late 60s and early 70s, but by the time 1973 rolled around--and Rosewall was turning 39--he finished #6, with 35-year old Rod Laver finishing #8. Rosewall actually stayed in the top 10 for a couple more years into his 40s, while Laver fell out in 1974.

So that's it. Roger Federer--again, barring catastrophe--will do something no 33-year has done in 42 years of ATP rankings: finish in the top 3. Cool beans, that.

The most frigthening thing about this is...most of us will not be surprised.

I hear about another Federer record and my reaction is..."meh"...LOL...

ONLY because, anything less than mind blowing, universe altering paradigms from Roger is a shock.

People have been waiting for a Fall From Grace...an embarrassing string of defeats in first or second rounds...kind of like what Sampras went through for 2 years before winning his last slam.

I don't think that is going to happen. I think he is going to retire like Floyd Mayweather will, or how Rocky Marciano did. He will wake up one day and say.."I'm done, gave it all, I don't want to train anymore".

Being alive during the Federer era is like being alive when the Beatles were an active band. It is a privelege and folks down the road will be jealous. "What was it like...."

 

[GameSetAndMath]

What is even more interesting is the following.

With Nadal's participation for the rest of the year seeming doubtful and with Novak being
questionable for some events at least due to impending fatherhood, there is certainly an
outside chance of Roger sneaking in and snatching YE #1. I am not saying Roger
is favorite to finish #1 or anything close to it, but am saying he definitely have some
chance of making it.

Finally, if that happens Roger would tie the record of Pete Sampras in having achieved YE #1 six
different times (Pete achieved it in consecutive years though and that is one record of
Pete that Fed or any other member of big four simply cannot touch).

 

[shawnbm]

Another fascinating stat pulled up by our man, GSM. Well done, sir! Roger may well win some more titles this year and almost always is in the mix in London at year's end. He has done well indeed. He still has a lot of fight left in him.

 

[nehmeth]

Finally, if that happens Roger would tie with Pete Sampras in having achieved YE #1 six
different times (Pete achieved it in consecutive years though and that is one record of
Pete that Fed or any other member of big four simply cannot touch).

Yep that ship sailed on Roger a while ago.

 

[crystalfire]

my goal is to watch him play live before he retires. god if your there please let this happen somehow. please. thanks.

 

[Luxilon Borg]

my goal is to watch him play live before he retires. god if your there please let this happen somehow. please. thanks.

Oh gosh!!!:idea:

 

[El Dude]

With Nadal's participation for the rest of the year seeming doubtful and with Novak being
questionable for some events at least due to impending fatherhood, there is certainly an
outside chance of Roger sneaking in and snatching YE #1. I am not saying Roger
is favorite to finish #1 or anything close to it, but am saying he definitely have some
chance of making it.

I hadn't thought too seriously about that, but he is "only" 1270 points behind Novak - so there is a chance. Let's say the following happens:

He wins the Davis to go up to 7020. Then he wins one of Shanghai/Paris (1000) and is a SF in the other (360), while Novak goes out early in one (3R 90) and SF in the other (360). Then let's say Roger wins Basel (500) and Novak wins Beijing (500). That would give Roger 1860 more points and Novak 950 more, so they'd go into the WTF as follows:

Roger 8880
Novak 9100

That's only a 220 point difference. Of course this assumes much better results from Roger than Novak going forward. But Roger doesn't need that close of a gap to theoretically steal the #1 ranking away from Novak. Even if they play equally, if Novak goes into the WTF with a 1100 point edge, Roger could still pull it off if he wins the whole thing and Novak goes out in the RR. Unlikely, but again possible. But what might be solidly possible is that Roger gains a bit of ground from Novak and goes into the WTF 500-800 points behind, making it possible, difficult, but possible.

Should be interesting.

Of course all of this could be a moot point if Novak wins in Shanghai again and Roger goes out early. Roger really has to do at least as well as Novak going forward to have a snowball's chance.

 

[isabelle]

What is even more interesting is the following.

With Nadal's participation for the rest of the year seeming doubtful and with Novak being
questionable for some events at least due to impending fatherhood, there is certainly an
outside chance of Roger sneaking in and snatching YE #1. I am not saying Roger
is favorite to finish #1 or anything close to it, but am saying he definitely have some
chance of making it.

Finally, if that happens Roger would tie the record of Pete Sampras in having achieved YE #1 six
different times (Pete achieved it in consecutive years though and that is one record of
Pete that Fed or any other member of big four simply cannot touch).

Nadal'll play an exho on Sept 25 with Tsonga in Kazahkstan and then he'll probably go to China ?
He said he hoped ti play there but nothing is sure for the moment

 

[GameSetAndMath]

According to what I read from various places, it looks like Novak will play in both
Beijing and Shanghai. However, Novak is expected to miss both Basel and Bercy
(as the baby is due in the weekend between Basel and Bercy). Novak is expected
to come back and play in WTF.

Now, Novak will be rusty when he comes back as he would not have played for
four weeks in a row and as he did not play in any warm-up indoor tournaments.
Unlike in GS or even in Masters torunaments, you cannot work your way up
and play to form in WTF. Remember that in WTF sometimes qualifying to the
semifinals stage may even depend on how efficiently you won (percentage of
sets won and percentage of games won etc). So, there is always the possibility
of Novak not making it to SF even if he wins two Round Robin matches and
loses one, if two other players from his group do the same more efficiently
than him.

 

[El Dude]

According to what I read from various places, it looks like Novak will play in both
Beijing and Shanghai. However, Novak is expected to miss both Basel and Bercy
(as the baby is due in the weekend between Basel and Bercy). Novak is expected
to come back and play in WTF.

Hmm...defend your title at the Paris Masters and increase your chances at the year-end #1, or be with your wife and newborn? Not an easy choice.

All joking aside, if this is true it changes a lot. In a way if Novak doesn't win at least one of Beijing and Shanghai and do well at the other, he is giving Roger a good chance of passing him.

Again, right now Novak is at 8150 and Roger at 6950 (with another possible 70 points if he wins the Davis Cup). With a 1200 point edge (or 1130 if Roger wins the Davis Cup), Novak has a possible 1500 points in Beijing and Shanghai, while Roger has a possible 2500 points in Shanghai, Basel and Paris. Unless Novak wins both Beijing and Shanghai AND Roger completely flops, we might go into the WTF with Roger having a shot at the #1.

The bottom line is that Shanghai is huge. Once Shanghai is in the books we'll have a better sense of Roger's chances (all this assuming that Novak really won't play Paris).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed can potentially get 140 points in DC Semifinals (not just 70). This will happen if Switzerland
loses the doubles and then Fed wins the second live rubber.

Similary, Fed can potentially get 150 (75 points per live rubber) if he wins two live rubbers
in the final.

If both of the above happens and if Swiss wins the DC, then Fed will be getting a 75 point
team bonus as he would have won seven live rubbers and his team would have own the
DC.

That is a whole 220 possible points that was left out of the above calculation.

 

[BalaryKar]

If Nadal reads this thread, he should as well try to replicate the success of HC swing of last year to this years indoor courts swing :laydownlaughing

 

[El Dude]

If Nadal reads this thread, he should as well try to replicate the success of HC swing of last year to this years indoor courts swing :laydownlaughing

Do we think Rafa is reading this thread or doing this?

Hmm...tough choice

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If you read in between the lines of Fed's statements, it looks like he is not too keen
on playing in Shanghai (nothing explicitly said though). I hope he does not drop out of
Shanghai.

However, as someone else pointed out Fed is currently leading in both the number
of matches played (65) and number of matches won (55) for 2014 among all players.

 

[BalaryKar]

Do we think Rafa is reading this thread or doing this?

Hmm...tough choice

Its too obvious to be a tough choice :lolz:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The Swiss are now into DC finals.

I am giving below the potential points that Fed could accumulate
in the finals of DC under different scenario.

1. If Fed loses all live rubbers that he plays in .............................0
2. If Fed wins one live rubber only ............................................75
3. If Fed wins both live rubbers, but Switzerland loses ...............150
4. If Fed wins both live rubbers and Switzerland wins the cup......225

Also, Fed is not eligible for individual bonus of 125 points as he cannot
possibly win all 8 live singles rubbers considering he played in only one
in the first round against Serbia.

That may be good enough for the final coup.