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One of my fascinations with tennis analysis is thinking about how good any given young player will eventually become, and whether there is any way to assess this through looking at their statistical record. In the past, I came up with a list of "benchmarks of greatness" - statistical accomplishments that every all-time great (defined as 6+ Slam winners) accomplished at certain ages, such as reaching certain ranking thresholds, first big title, etc.
What follows is another angle based on Elo. I looked at the Elo rating of different players on their birthdays, from age 18 to 29, spanning the developmental period (18-21) and the typical prime years (21-27) and possibly first signs of decline (late 20s).
First off, here's the Big Four as well as a handful of very good to semi-elite players of recent decades:
The chart might be a bit confusing (and note that the numbers aren't always exactly aligned with the first column, due to how close some are ranked), but let me unpack it a bit. First off, the second black column is the average Elo rating of different ranks (by year-end Elo), which gives us a rough sense of how good each player was at a given age, relative to historic norms.
I've included the Big Four in darker colors, as well as a range of very good to semi-elite players: Gasquet, Dimitrov, Nishikori, Cilic, Berdych, and Del Potro.
Note that Rafael Nadal is an outlier - at least early on, until age 21-22 when others catch up. Meaning, he shouldn't be considered as a marker against which young players should be mentioned, as far as his age 18-20 performance, considering that the similarly accomplished Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic were slower to develop (especially Federer).
A few things can be gleaned from the above:
One, look how closely grouped everyone is at age 19. Every player had enough time to warrant an Elo rating, and almost everyone is very close - with only Rafa far ahead. The separation begins to occur after players turn 19.
By age 20, you have the greats above the lesser players. Meaning, the separation mentioned above occurs between age 19-20...in every case. There is still variation in development, but something happens between age 19 and 20...as if it is a crucial early part of their developmental arc that determines future greatness.
It is also interesting to note that Del Potro, at age 20, is grouped right there with the greats, just an inconsequential 10 Elo points behind Federer and a far more substantial 71 points ahead of the best of the second grouping, Cilic.
Two, almost every player plateaus at age 20-21 or 21-22, with only minor variation. Rafa plateaued at 20-22 before jumping up at 23 (which he turned in 2008, when his level rose and he won his first non-clay Slam). Novak plateaued at 21-23 before jumping in 2011, when he was 23-24. Murray and Federer plateaued at 20-21 before jumping up after, by their 22nd birthday.
But here we also see the separation. Whereas the Big Four all plateaued for 2+ years somewhere in the 20-23 range before jumping to a higher level, all of the lesser players didn't have that jump. Most took a more gradual route of improvement. Dimitrov improved every year up to his 24th birthday, then fell back by his 25th birthday, then rose back again, with his highest "birthday rank" being age 27 (in 2018 after winning his two big titles the previous year).
Even Andy Murray, who I used to call "the worst of the best and the best of the rest" was right there with the other Big Four on his 22nd birthday, but then plateaued and didn't have that big jump to GOAT level until after he turned age 29 in 2016, so off the chart.
Del Potro is another outlier. Up through age 21-22 he looked like he was on the path to greatness, but then injury struck and he never returned to that level, though still performed at a high level.
Meaning, just as we see one separation at age 19-20, another occurs after that age 20-23 plateau, in which the Bigger Three made another developmental jump to truly stellar levels, beyond even that of previous all-time greats (e.g. Agassi, Sampras, Becker, Edberg and Wilander all peaked in terms of Elo in the 2370-2420 range; you have to go back to Lendl, McEnroe, Borg, and Connors to find 2500+ Elo players).
Three, note that Novak did something that neither Roger nor Rafa did: After peaking in the mid-20s, Novak actually continued to go up in his late 20s when Rafa and Roger were settling in at a lower post-peak level.
Finally, note that some of the lesser players had jumps later on in their careers: Nishikori at age 25, Cilic at age 26, Berdych at age 27. Not huge jumps, but still finding a higher level in the second half of their 20s. On the other hand, poor Gasquet had the second highest age 19 Elo other than Rafa, but then stalled and while he gradually improved through most of his 20s, never had that big jump from being a merely very good player to a great one.
Part 2 is upcoming, in which I look at the current young players.
What follows is another angle based on Elo. I looked at the Elo rating of different players on their birthdays, from age 18 to 29, spanning the developmental period (18-21) and the typical prime years (21-27) and possibly first signs of decline (late 20s).
First off, here's the Big Four as well as a handful of very good to semi-elite players of recent decades:
The chart might be a bit confusing (and note that the numbers aren't always exactly aligned with the first column, due to how close some are ranked), but let me unpack it a bit. First off, the second black column is the average Elo rating of different ranks (by year-end Elo), which gives us a rough sense of how good each player was at a given age, relative to historic norms.
I've included the Big Four in darker colors, as well as a range of very good to semi-elite players: Gasquet, Dimitrov, Nishikori, Cilic, Berdych, and Del Potro.
Note that Rafael Nadal is an outlier - at least early on, until age 21-22 when others catch up. Meaning, he shouldn't be considered as a marker against which young players should be mentioned, as far as his age 18-20 performance, considering that the similarly accomplished Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic were slower to develop (especially Federer).
A few things can be gleaned from the above:
One, look how closely grouped everyone is at age 19. Every player had enough time to warrant an Elo rating, and almost everyone is very close - with only Rafa far ahead. The separation begins to occur after players turn 19.
By age 20, you have the greats above the lesser players. Meaning, the separation mentioned above occurs between age 19-20...in every case. There is still variation in development, but something happens between age 19 and 20...as if it is a crucial early part of their developmental arc that determines future greatness.
It is also interesting to note that Del Potro, at age 20, is grouped right there with the greats, just an inconsequential 10 Elo points behind Federer and a far more substantial 71 points ahead of the best of the second grouping, Cilic.
Two, almost every player plateaus at age 20-21 or 21-22, with only minor variation. Rafa plateaued at 20-22 before jumping up at 23 (which he turned in 2008, when his level rose and he won his first non-clay Slam). Novak plateaued at 21-23 before jumping in 2011, when he was 23-24. Murray and Federer plateaued at 20-21 before jumping up after, by their 22nd birthday.
But here we also see the separation. Whereas the Big Four all plateaued for 2+ years somewhere in the 20-23 range before jumping to a higher level, all of the lesser players didn't have that jump. Most took a more gradual route of improvement. Dimitrov improved every year up to his 24th birthday, then fell back by his 25th birthday, then rose back again, with his highest "birthday rank" being age 27 (in 2018 after winning his two big titles the previous year).
Even Andy Murray, who I used to call "the worst of the best and the best of the rest" was right there with the other Big Four on his 22nd birthday, but then plateaued and didn't have that big jump to GOAT level until after he turned age 29 in 2016, so off the chart.
Del Potro is another outlier. Up through age 21-22 he looked like he was on the path to greatness, but then injury struck and he never returned to that level, though still performed at a high level.
Meaning, just as we see one separation at age 19-20, another occurs after that age 20-23 plateau, in which the Bigger Three made another developmental jump to truly stellar levels, beyond even that of previous all-time greats (e.g. Agassi, Sampras, Becker, Edberg and Wilander all peaked in terms of Elo in the 2370-2420 range; you have to go back to Lendl, McEnroe, Borg, and Connors to find 2500+ Elo players).
Three, note that Novak did something that neither Roger nor Rafa did: After peaking in the mid-20s, Novak actually continued to go up in his late 20s when Rafa and Roger were settling in at a lower post-peak level.
Finally, note that some of the lesser players had jumps later on in their careers: Nishikori at age 25, Cilic at age 26, Berdych at age 27. Not huge jumps, but still finding a higher level in the second half of their 20s. On the other hand, poor Gasquet had the second highest age 19 Elo other than Rafa, but then stalled and while he gradually improved through most of his 20s, never had that big jump from being a merely very good player to a great one.
Part 2 is upcoming, in which I look at the current young players.