Andy Murray missing the French Open???

[drm025]

Andy Murray has been quoted saying that he is unsure if he will be playing Paris. What kind of implications will this have on the rest of the draw? It would guarantee both Nadal and Ferrer a top-4 seed, while also guaranteeing the 2-seed to Federer. This would make it impossible for Roger to face Djokovic until the final, and he could possibly avoid both Nadal and Djokovic.

If Murray does play, the top 3 seeds are set, with either Nadal or Ferrer taking number 4 based on whether Nadal wins Rome or not. If nadal wins Rome, Federer gets to automatically avoid him until the final. If Nadal does not win Rome and ends up 5th, Federer could be in the same half as both Nadal and Djokovic, or just one of them, or neither.

It's crazy how much of an effect Murray's absence could have. Either way, it will be up to the draw. Which situation do you think favors Federer the most?

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

It is not a secret Roger will struggle against Rafa, but he has more important priorities right now, like HIS level of play. Before getting into the draws and such, Roger has to get back to some sort of form, get consistent, and win some matches that he is supposed to win. Once he gets to that gear, he can start thinking about winning matches he is supposed to lose.
I hope Murray plays FO , by the way...

 

[El Dude]

Andy's really nothing more than a spoiler at the French Open - I really can't see him beating Novak and/or Rafa on clay, and probably not Federer. He's still very good on clay, but he drops from elite to near-elite along with Tsonga, Ferrer etc.

But you're right - the implications are huge, and mainly because of the seeding. Andy being out gives Novak and Rafa a chance to duke it out in the SF. Roger's only chance of winning is if Novak takes Rafa out in the SF and Roger is able to muster his best tennis, which could beat Novak.

 

[tented]

If Murray does play, the top 3 seeds are set, with either Nadal or Ferrer taking number 4 based on whether Nadal wins Rome or not. If nadal wins Rome, Federer gets to automatically avoid him until the final.

If Murray doesn't go, therefore Federer becomes No. 2 seed, and Nadal is either No. 3 or 4, then it's a 50/50 chance of his ending up on Djokovic's or Federer's side of the draw. Rafa being No. 3 or 4 does not automatically make Federer avoid him until the final. That is only the case for Djokovic as the top seed.

It's crazy how much of an effect Murray's absence could have. Either way, it will be up to the draw. Which situation do you think favors Federer the most?

Given that Federer has never beaten Rafa at RG, but he has beaten Djokovic, it's pretty clear what would favor Federer the most.

 

[drm025]

"If Murray doesn't go, therefore Federer becomes No. 2 seed, and Nadal is either No. 3 or 4, then it's a 50/50 chance of his ending up on Djokovic's or Federer's side of the draw. Rafa being No. 3 or 4 does not automatically make Federer avoid him until the final. That is only the case for Djokovic as the top seed."

Uh, except I said if Murray does go.... If murray is there, Fed is number 3, and if Nadal wins Rome, he is number 4. Therefore, they cant meet until the final.

 

[El Dude]

As I understand it, the first four seeds are randomly placed in the two halves - it could be 1/2 and 3/4 or 1/3 and 2/4 or 1/4 and 2/3. Therefore any of the four seeds could play another in the SF and therefore Roger could play Rafa before the Final unless Rafa is on the other half.

If Murray doesn't play Roland Garros than there's a chance, albeit a slim one, that Roger avoids one of the other Big Four until the Final. This is also possible if Ferrer is seeded fourth, but then it also becomes possible to meet Rafa in the QF - which is Roger's nightmare.

So the best case scenario for Roger is if all of the following happens:
- Andy doesn't play Roland Garros
- Roger is in the same half as David Ferrer, with Novak and Rafa on the other half
- Novak beats Rafa in the SF
- Roger plays Novak in the Final

 

[drm025]

As I understand it, the first four seeds are randomly placed in the two halves - it could be 1/2 and 3/4 or 1/3 and 2/4 or 1/4 and 2/3. Therefore any of the four seeds could play another in the SF and therefore Roger could play Rafa before the Final unless Rafa is on the other half.

Seeds 1 and 2 are always on opposite halves. The first seed is always in the top spot of the draw and the second seed is always at the very bottom. The only random part is whether it is 1/3 and 2/4 or 1/4 and 2/3.

 

[tented]

"If Murray doesn't go, therefore Federer becomes No. 2 seed, and Nadal is either No. 3 or 4, then it's a 50/50 chance of his ending up on Djokovic's or Federer's side of the draw. Rafa being No. 3 or 4 does not automatically make Federer avoid him until the final. That is only the case for Djokovic as the top seed."

Uh, except I said if Murray does go.... If murray is there, Fed is number 3, and if Nadal wins Rome, he is number 4. Therefore, they cant meet until the final.

You're right. I was confusing Roger's current ranking's implications on the seeding.

 

[Iona16]

Well, I have to say I don't care about the best scenario for Roger, Novak or even Rafa. Any top player missing a slam is bad for the tournament. I don't think it matters what chance anyone thinks Andy would have of winning. For the record I would say it was an outside chance if Murray was 100%

I wish Andy well and hope he does what is best for the grass court season.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

Iona - i do think it seems a bit cruel that here we got a great player maybe forced to retire, and everyone's talking about how this affects the chances of the rest. part of it might be that Andy simply isn't seen as a title contender at RG - the clamor would be different if he were forced out of Wimbledon, i can assure you.

as for now - i'm an optimist. there's still plenty of time to go before RG starts, and i'd be quite surprised if Andy doesn't show up there. how good he'll fare, that's another topic. but in any case, i do think that if he's more or less fit, he definitely should play, to get in the best of five mood.

 

[Mastoor]

It's just terrible what happens to Murray on his birthdays. I hope he will recover soon.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Awful news. Maybe people can now occasionally believe players when they pull out or miss some time, as opposed to the "I'm sure he's fine, it's just precaution" type of talk.

Hoping Andy will make it RG.

 

[herios]

Iona - i do think it seems a bit cruel that here we got a great player maybe forced to retire, and everyone's talking about how this affects the chances of the rest. part of it might be that Andy simply isn't seen as a title contender at RG - the clamor would be different if he were forced out of Wimbledon, i can assure you.

as for now - i'm an optimist. there's still plenty of time to go before RG starts, and i'd be quite surprised if Andy doesn't show up there. how good he'll fare, that's another topic. but in any case, i do think that if he's more or less fit, he definitely should play, to get in the best of five mood.

Even if he shows up in RG, based on how he played on clay in this season, his bracket will be a land of opportunity for the underdogs drawn there.

 

[isabelle]

Andy is very unlucky
Sad for him even if he's not a clay king, he certainly wants to play RG
Hope he can recover soon

 

[Iona16]

Iona - i do think it seems a bit cruel that here we got a great player maybe forced to retire, and everyone's talking about how this affects the chances of the rest. part of it might be that Andy simply isn't seen as a title contender at RG - the clamor would be different if he were forced out of Wimbledon, i can assure you.

as for now - i'm an optimist. there's still plenty of time to go before RG starts, and i'd be quite surprised if Andy doesn't show up there. how good he'll fare, that's another topic. but in any case, i do think that if he's more or less fit, he definitely should play, to get in the best of five mood.

I should probably have stayed away from the internet yesterday. Seeing Murray retire didn't put me in the best of moods. I think I was perhaps a little bit hyper-sensitive - as you will have seen on the 'Andy Murray on clay' thread.

For some reason Andy never seems to play well on his birthday. It is weird to note that Andy has only ever retired twice in his career. The only other retirement was on the 20th birthday when he snapped a tendon in his wrist. That injury kept him out for 6 mths.

I think Andy will prioritise Wimbledon. If that means missing RG then I think he will do that.

 

[tented]

For some reason Andy never seems to play well on his birthday. It is weird to note that Andy has only ever retired twice in his career. The only other retirement was on the 20th birthday when he snapped a tendon in his wrist. That injury kept him out for 6 mths.

Twice ever, and both times on his birthday? That is really bizarre, Iona.

Let's hope this injury doesn't sidetrack him for too long. He needs to be in top shape for Wimbledon. I'm also wondering how he'll do there after winning the Olympic Gold last year. Plus, he has a lot of points to defend (1,200 at Wimbledon vs. 360 at RG), so it's worth skipping RG if that's what's needed.

If you read anything in Scottish newspapers which the rest of us wouldn't know about, please share it with us. Thanks.

 

[Iona16]

For some reason Andy never seems to play well on his birthday. It is weird to note that Andy has only ever retired twice in his career. The only other retirement was on the 20th birthday when he snapped a tendon in his wrist. That injury kept him out for 6 mths.

Twice ever, and both times on his birthday? That is really bizarre, Iona.

Let's hope this injury doesn't sidetrack him for too long. He needs to be in top shape for Wimbledon. I'm also wondering how he'll do there after winning the Olympic Gold last year. Plus, he has a lot of points to defend (1,200 at Wimbledon vs. 360 at RG), so it's worth skipping RG if that's what's needed.

If you read anything in Scottish newspapers which the rest of us wouldn't know about, please share it with us. Thanks.

Yep, just twice and both times on his birthday. The only player in the top 10 with less retirements is Roger with a very impressive zero.

I think Andy is back in London. I know he left Rome quite quickly as I saw photos of him with fans at the airport. As far as I'm aware he was having a scan on his back yesterday (Thursday).

With Wimbledon and his US Open title defence on the horizon, Murray is concerned that a series of gruelling matches on clay could have even more serious long term repercussions. I'm sad to say I think he will skip RG. Wimbledon has to be the priority.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

murray is making a decision on Wednesday..he should skip RG..Why play if its risking a back problem that he had since 2011 that has got worse..:huh:

I bet the dork plays and hurts himself some more..bye bye Wimbledon.

 

[tented]

murray is making a decision on Wednesday..he should skip RG..Why play if its risking a back problem that he had since 2011 that has got worse..:huh:

I bet the dork plays and hurts himself some more..bye bye Wimbledon.

No, that kind of shoot-yourself-in-the-foot thinking is pretty much exclusive to Rafa. Andy will make the right decision.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

murray is making a decision on Wednesday..he should skip RG..Why play if its risking a back problem that he had since 2011 that has got worse..:huh:

I bet the dork plays and hurts himself some more..bye bye Wimbledon.

No, that kind of shoot-yourself-in-the-foot thinking is pretty much exclusive to Rafa. Andy will make the right decision.

andy has a real chance to win Wimbledon..not RG, maybe his dog could point this information out to him.