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I thought it would be interesting to compare Joao Fonseca now to Carlos Alcaraz at a similar point in his career. Please note that this is, like a lot o my inquiries, more by way of comparing historical precedents and records than it is meant to be predictive. In what follows, I will compare how Fonseca has compared to Alcaraz thus far, at a similar point in their respective careers. I am NOT suggesting that Fonseca will follow the same path (though, as you'll see, it has been quite similar thus far) but I AM speculating on "What If."
I'm as excited about Fonseca as anyone, but I'm also a tiny bit leery of just how hyped he's been - I don't remember any prospect in recent memory being so hyped up before going deep at a Slam or even Masters. By my memory, even Alcaraz wasn't this hyped - not until he broke out in early 2022, starting with Rio a few months shy of his 19th birthday, but really heating up when he won Miami, Barcelona and Madrid, the last just a few days after turning 19. Before that, he was an exciting young player to watch, but--again, if memory serves--he wasn't quite seen as the surefire future elite that Fonseca is now considered to be.
Alcaraz had his breakout into the elite in Feb-May 2022 at the same age that Fonseca will be in May-Aug of this year. In other words, Fonseca is about a month plus younger than Alcaraz was when he started his breakout run. In that span of time, he won two ATP 500s and two Masters in a span of six tournaments and had clearly arrived as one of the big boys. Up until that point, like Fonseca, he had won an ATP 250 and the Next Gen Finals.
Aside from the differences in their games, one clear difference is that Alcaraz had played a lot more ATP level matches before that breakout. If we consider Rio as the start of Alcaraz's run, here is how ATP level events and match time compares to where Fonseca is now (including Next Gen finals and Davis Cup):
ALCARAZ (Feb 22, age 18y 9mo): 35-19 in 21 events (49 matches, 64.8%), 1 ATP 250 title, Next Gen title, ranked #31)
FONSECA (Apr 25, age 18y, 8m): 21-13 in 15 events (34 matches, 61.8%), (1 ATP 250 title, Next Gen title, ranked #59)
Including Challengers and Futures:
ALCARAZ: 109-38 (147 matches, 74.1%)
FONSECA: 50-20 (70 matches, 71.4%)
So as you can see, Alcaraz had played 15 more ATP level matches and more than twice as many matches overall...as of right now. Fonzie still has another month or so before he enters Alcaraz's breakthrough age zone. I'm not sure what his schedule is, but given that Alcaraz won the first of his breakout run within three months of his 19th birthday, the three months prior mark for Fonseca is May 21, and that includes three Masters and one of two ATP 500s.
One final comparison. How had Alcaraz faired through his first 70 matches overall? He was 53-17, just a smidgeon better than Fonseca. And through his first 34 ATP level matches? He was 19-15, a bit worse than Fonseca's 21-13.
The key difference, I'd say, is that Alcaraz played a lot more Futures and Challengers before focusing on the ATP tour. Whether or not this will impact Fonseca's rise remains to be seen. So far he's doing pretty well, I'd say.
Regardless, they are very similar. Now it just remains to be seen when and how Fonseca breaks out into the elite. Will he go on a run like Alcaraz did, who won two ATP 500s and two Masters in a span of six events and three months? Or will it be more gradual? After that run, Alcaraz reached the QF and 4R at Slams, then won the US Open.
If Fonseca were to follow the exact same pattern as Carlos did in terms of age, his breakout run would begin in late May or early June, which is the time of Roland Garros. After that you have Halle/Queen's Club (500s), Wimbledon, Washington (500), the two North American Masters, and then the US Open. But to be fair to Fonzie, the closest Slam to Alcaraz's US Open in terms of age and experience is probably the 2026 Australian Open.
Or to summarize - if Fonzie goes on a breakout run (which I'm defining as winning multiple titles, at least one of them "big"), relative to Alcaraz it will be:
Clay season 2025 (Apr-June): A bit earlier than than Alcaraz
North America 2025 (July-Sept): About the same as Alcaraz
Indoor Hard season 2025 (Oct-Nov): A bit later than Alcaraz
2026 (any time): Later than Alcaraz
And in terms of first Slam title:
RG 2025 : about 6 months ahead of Alcaraz
Wim 2025: about 5 months ahead of Alcaraz
USO 2025: about 3 months ahead of Alcaraz
AO 2025: about 2 months after Alcaraz
I'm as excited about Fonseca as anyone, but I'm also a tiny bit leery of just how hyped he's been - I don't remember any prospect in recent memory being so hyped up before going deep at a Slam or even Masters. By my memory, even Alcaraz wasn't this hyped - not until he broke out in early 2022, starting with Rio a few months shy of his 19th birthday, but really heating up when he won Miami, Barcelona and Madrid, the last just a few days after turning 19. Before that, he was an exciting young player to watch, but--again, if memory serves--he wasn't quite seen as the surefire future elite that Fonseca is now considered to be.
Alcaraz had his breakout into the elite in Feb-May 2022 at the same age that Fonseca will be in May-Aug of this year. In other words, Fonseca is about a month plus younger than Alcaraz was when he started his breakout run. In that span of time, he won two ATP 500s and two Masters in a span of six tournaments and had clearly arrived as one of the big boys. Up until that point, like Fonseca, he had won an ATP 250 and the Next Gen Finals.
Aside from the differences in their games, one clear difference is that Alcaraz had played a lot more ATP level matches before that breakout. If we consider Rio as the start of Alcaraz's run, here is how ATP level events and match time compares to where Fonseca is now (including Next Gen finals and Davis Cup):
ALCARAZ (Feb 22, age 18y 9mo): 35-19 in 21 events (49 matches, 64.8%), 1 ATP 250 title, Next Gen title, ranked #31)
FONSECA (Apr 25, age 18y, 8m): 21-13 in 15 events (34 matches, 61.8%), (1 ATP 250 title, Next Gen title, ranked #59)
Including Challengers and Futures:
ALCARAZ: 109-38 (147 matches, 74.1%)
FONSECA: 50-20 (70 matches, 71.4%)
So as you can see, Alcaraz had played 15 more ATP level matches and more than twice as many matches overall...as of right now. Fonzie still has another month or so before he enters Alcaraz's breakthrough age zone. I'm not sure what his schedule is, but given that Alcaraz won the first of his breakout run within three months of his 19th birthday, the three months prior mark for Fonseca is May 21, and that includes three Masters and one of two ATP 500s.
One final comparison. How had Alcaraz faired through his first 70 matches overall? He was 53-17, just a smidgeon better than Fonseca. And through his first 34 ATP level matches? He was 19-15, a bit worse than Fonseca's 21-13.
The key difference, I'd say, is that Alcaraz played a lot more Futures and Challengers before focusing on the ATP tour. Whether or not this will impact Fonseca's rise remains to be seen. So far he's doing pretty well, I'd say.
Regardless, they are very similar. Now it just remains to be seen when and how Fonseca breaks out into the elite. Will he go on a run like Alcaraz did, who won two ATP 500s and two Masters in a span of six events and three months? Or will it be more gradual? After that run, Alcaraz reached the QF and 4R at Slams, then won the US Open.
If Fonseca were to follow the exact same pattern as Carlos did in terms of age, his breakout run would begin in late May or early June, which is the time of Roland Garros. After that you have Halle/Queen's Club (500s), Wimbledon, Washington (500), the two North American Masters, and then the US Open. But to be fair to Fonzie, the closest Slam to Alcaraz's US Open in terms of age and experience is probably the 2026 Australian Open.
Or to summarize - if Fonzie goes on a breakout run (which I'm defining as winning multiple titles, at least one of them "big"), relative to Alcaraz it will be:
Clay season 2025 (Apr-June): A bit earlier than than Alcaraz
North America 2025 (July-Sept): About the same as Alcaraz
Indoor Hard season 2025 (Oct-Nov): A bit later than Alcaraz
2026 (any time): Later than Alcaraz
And in terms of first Slam title:
RG 2025 : about 6 months ahead of Alcaraz
Wim 2025: about 5 months ahead of Alcaraz
USO 2025: about 3 months ahead of Alcaraz
AO 2025: about 2 months after Alcaraz
