Age of the top 8 in slams 2015

[herios]

Johnsteinbeck mentioned how old the top 8 who made the QF were at the USO were. I observed that too, so I thought it would be interesting to draw by comparison with the other 3 slams this year how it worked out age wise.

1. AO average was 26.0 years
2. FO average 29.5 years
3. Wimbledon avg. 28.63
4. USO 29.88

Indeed the USO has the highest age average of all 4 events and I am assuming one of the highest ever recorded. Except the AO, where the median was brought down as there were Kyrgios, Raonic and Nishikori all in the top 8, the average is above 28.

Last year, I am sure the numbers were lower, because Nishikori, Raonic, Dimitrov and Kyrgios all were in the top 8, alternatively and all players were younger in age with one year obviously.

I am now curios if next yearslams there will be a top 8 averaging over 30?

 

[El Dude]

I think 2016 is going to be the Rise of the Young 'Uns, meaning players age 25 and under. 2015 is so disappointing in this regard, with disappointing performances pretty much across the board. But next year I think we're going to see deeper results at Slams from players age 25 and under, and even maybe a surprise Masters or Slam title or two.

I mean its gotta happen sometime, right?

 

[herios]

I think 2016 is going to be the Rise of the Young 'Uns, meaning players age 25 and under. 2015 is so disappointing in this regard, with disappointing performances pretty much across the board. But next year I think we're going to see deeper results at Slams from players age 25 and under, and even maybe a surprise Masters or Slam title or two.

I mean its gotta happen sometime, right?

Some of these younger guys who made in roads in the top 30:
Goffin, Thiem, Tomic, Sock, Kyrgios could have a limited potential, and play the roles of Anderson for a few years, like reaching R16 and that is about it.
So far only Kyrgios managed 2 times a QF of all these players.
Coric has potential, but I think he has also limitations at this point, I cannot see him producing better results than Bautista Agut for example. The other teenagers are too green.
And the layer of oldies is still too thick at the top. So we shall see. It will be interesting.

 

[El Dude]

It is hard to say, herios. I think Dimitrov, Raonic, and Nishikori will be around the top 10 for a few years to come. Of the others, it is hard to say but I think Goffin, Sock, Thiem, and Vesely will all be top 20 types who may occasionally slip into the top 10 - think Gasquet, Isner, or Simon, what I call "tier 3 players."

I expect a bit more from Kyrgios, Coric, and Zverev. Kyrgios I see as a potential tier 2 type - a top 10 player and dark-horse Slam/Masters candidate, like Berdych or Tsonga - maybe even something more. Coric and Zverev could be even better.

I don't have the ability to analyze young players' games and project their ceiling, but from what I've seen with players like Coric or Zverev, it wouldn't be impossible for them to become elites. Neither looks like a young Federer or Nadal, but this is a different game now than it was 10-15 years ago. In today's era, these guys are babies. If they continue to develop they could be very potent players by the time they reach 22 or so - that's 3 or 4 years away.

 

[mrzz]

I mean its gotta happen sometime, right?

Not necessarily. I mean, there will always be players around 28 available. Honestly, I am far from thinking that the new generations are bound to win anything.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

sir grigor will rise again. (arise sir grigor),

everything went wrong at once, confidence dip, trying to go out with suparpova, trying to be acclimatized to a new wand, changing coach upheaval..its all been happening for the boy from Bulgaria.

expect sir grigor to amble up the world rank charts and get with the programme.

 

[El Dude]

I mean its gotta happen sometime, right?

Not necessarily. I mean, there will always be players around 28 available. Honestly, I am far from thinking that the new generations are bound to win anything.

OK, so maybe Dimitrov, Nishikori, and Raonic will take over in a few years when they are 28. But my point is that at some point the baton has to be passed. It seems clear that we're going to enter another era like the late 90s, early 00s when the greats of the past are in decline and the new generation hasn't established itself. This means more Slams for an aging Djokovic and Murray, and more surprises. My guess is that the next elites don't establish themselves until 2018-19 or so.

sir grigor will rise again. (arise sir grigor),

everything went wrong at once, confidence dip, trying to go out with suparpova, trying to be acclimatized to a new wand, changing coach upheaval..its all been happening for the boy from Bulgaria.

expect sir grigor to amble up the world rank charts and get with the programme.

Yes, this is my hope. Grigor had an at least outwardly lackadaisical attitude - he was long touted as the next great player, "Baby Federer." But it didn't happen for him. Now it is time to see if he can not lose hope and instead re-focus and make the best of the immense talent that he has. Maybe he needs another year of struggle, but I think about a year from now - maybe less, maybe more - we're going to see Grigor cashing in on that talent and threatening for a spot in the top 5.

Or so I (still) hope. I could also see the Gasquet narrative - floating around the top 20-30 for a few years, before having a peak in his late 20s that isn't as good as he could have been. The jury is out.

 

[shawnbm]

I don't know--Nole and Roger and Andy and Stanislas seem to continue to beat the younger players on cue. I can see those four exchanging titles over the next year quite easily. Coric might make some noise if he bags some big pelts next year, but I think the top guys do everything he does a bit better, especially when it comes to the service.

 

[Denis]

I really liked what I saw from Chung. has more power than coric.

 

[herios]

I really liked what I saw from Chung. has more power than coric.

I saw a little and liked him a lot. I am talking about Andrey Rublev. But he is very young, just barely 18. It will take some time for him to develop.

 

[El Dude]

Andrey Rublev is one of the young guys I have on my radar. Great, historic name.

 

[shawnbm]

I have not yet seen Chung or Rublev. I will keep an eye out, along with Coric. I now believe Dimitrov has likely seen his best chances and he will remain along the lines of a Gasquet or Tsonga or Raonic--make a semi or maybe even a final, but not bag anything really big.