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With Alex "Sascha" Zverev's 3R defeat, the promising #4 in the world still has been unable to reach the QF of a Slam. As I mentioned elsewhere, every 6+ Slam winner in the Open Era--which is as good as any parameter to separate the true greats from the almost-greats and very good--has reached a Slam QF before turning 21. Sascha turns 21 in April, a month before the next Slam. Of course precedents can and do change, but the more worrying sign is that he doesn't seem well-suited to five-set matches, at least not yet.
There is another player who showed early promise yet struggled to go deep in Slams: Tomas Berdych. Berdych won his first (and only) Masters at the tender age of 20 years old--the same as Sascha--yet never won another. He didn't reach his first Slam QF until the 2007 Wimbledon when he was 21, and his second a few years later at the 2010 Roland Garros at 24. Berdych has been a mainstay in the top 10 from 2010 through 2016, finally dropping to #19 at the end of 2017. He is pretty much the definition of "second tier player" - frequently reaching Slam QFs and SFs, winning 13 titles overall, but not winning a Slam and only that lone Masters.
Berdych is a fine player, but not a great one and pretty much Zverev's worst-case scenario (barring injury). Like Zverev, Berdych has a big game--with a powerful forehand, strong backhand and serve, and can move pretty well for a big guy. His big problem is his mental game - like Zverev.
Now Sascha is still only 20 so has a lot of years ahead of him. But while his youth means he has time to figure things out, the flip-side is that time also establishes patterns. He can look at Berdych as an example of a talented player who wasn't able to improve his main weakness, and when that weakness is not mechanical or physical, it can be even more difficult to change.
Perhaps at this point we can hope that Sascha's main problem is that he needs to develop greater stamina. Right now he's 14-13 in his career in GS matches, including 2-1 at the AO.
Of those 27 matches, he's in 7-3 in three-setters, 4-6 in four-settlers and 3-4 in five-setters. Perhaps we can see the difference in that he's 7-10 in four or five setters. So there could be a stamina problem, and his being bageled in the fifth set vs. Chung supports that (I didn't watch the match, so don't know if he looked gassed). But I don't think it is only stamina.
Anyhow, let's see how it develops; stamina can be developed, he's probably a year or two away from his peak, and may only need that one victory to turn the corner and feel confidence. But the "Berdych Scenario" is one possibility.
In ten years we could look back and see a similar career to Berdych's, although I think somewhat better: not only will he have many prime years without the Big Three around, but he's better now than Berdych was at the same age (2005-06); so he'll probably have more Slam opportunities. Or we could look at one of the dominant players of the decade, a half dozen or so Slam titles, a bunch of Masters, and a year-end #1 or three.
We shall see.
There is another player who showed early promise yet struggled to go deep in Slams: Tomas Berdych. Berdych won his first (and only) Masters at the tender age of 20 years old--the same as Sascha--yet never won another. He didn't reach his first Slam QF until the 2007 Wimbledon when he was 21, and his second a few years later at the 2010 Roland Garros at 24. Berdych has been a mainstay in the top 10 from 2010 through 2016, finally dropping to #19 at the end of 2017. He is pretty much the definition of "second tier player" - frequently reaching Slam QFs and SFs, winning 13 titles overall, but not winning a Slam and only that lone Masters.
Berdych is a fine player, but not a great one and pretty much Zverev's worst-case scenario (barring injury). Like Zverev, Berdych has a big game--with a powerful forehand, strong backhand and serve, and can move pretty well for a big guy. His big problem is his mental game - like Zverev.
Now Sascha is still only 20 so has a lot of years ahead of him. But while his youth means he has time to figure things out, the flip-side is that time also establishes patterns. He can look at Berdych as an example of a talented player who wasn't able to improve his main weakness, and when that weakness is not mechanical or physical, it can be even more difficult to change.
Perhaps at this point we can hope that Sascha's main problem is that he needs to develop greater stamina. Right now he's 14-13 in his career in GS matches, including 2-1 at the AO.
Of those 27 matches, he's in 7-3 in three-setters, 4-6 in four-settlers and 3-4 in five-setters. Perhaps we can see the difference in that he's 7-10 in four or five setters. So there could be a stamina problem, and his being bageled in the fifth set vs. Chung supports that (I didn't watch the match, so don't know if he looked gassed). But I don't think it is only stamina.
Anyhow, let's see how it develops; stamina can be developed, he's probably a year or two away from his peak, and may only need that one victory to turn the corner and feel confidence. But the "Berdych Scenario" is one possibility.
In ten years we could look back and see a similar career to Berdych's, although I think somewhat better: not only will he have many prime years without the Big Three around, but he's better now than Berdych was at the same age (2005-06); so he'll probably have more Slam opportunities. Or we could look at one of the dominant players of the decade, a half dozen or so Slam titles, a bunch of Masters, and a year-end #1 or three.
We shall see.
