- Joined
- Apr 14, 2013
- Messages
- 10,163
- Reactions
- 5,851
- Points
- 113
I think it is clear that we are in the earlyish stages of a major sea change on the ATP tour, which has been utterly dominated by only a few players for over ten years. Consider that Roger Federer won his first Slam 2003, then took the #1 ranking from Andy Roddick in early 2004 and, for the next 12+ years, it has been held by him and only two other players, Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic. There is no other span in Open Era history like it--in which three players have so utterly dominated. Of course during that time there have been other players who have vied to be considered in their company, most especially Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka.
Regardless, though, things are changing. As of right now, Federer is 35, Wawrinka 31, Nadal 30, Murray and Djokovic 29. Roger is far from his prime, although still relevant, at least as of Wimbledon; Rafa is two and a half years from a Slam title, even a semifinal, but is still solidly in the top ten, and of course Andy and Novak are the two top players in the sport, and Stan just won the US Open. But while this group, as a whole, maintains their hold on the tour right now and for the near future, cracks are starting to grow. What we can reasonably be certain of is that sometime in the next 3-5 years, the balance of power will substantially shift--even fully.
Let's look at that time span: 2017-21. Here are the age ranges those and other older players will be, from the beginning of 2017 to the end of 2021.
35-40 Roger Federer, Feliciano Lopez
34-39 David Ferrer
32-37 Gilles Simon
31-36 Stan Wawrinka, Tomas Berdych, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
30-35 Rafael Nadal, Gael Monfils, Richard Gasquet
29-34 Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray
28-33 Marin Cilic, Juan Martin del Potro, Roberto Bautista Agut
Then we have the next group, the in-between group that has yet to make a mark - that is, win even a Masters:
27-32 Kei Nishikori, Martin Klizan, Benoit Paire, Steve Johnson
26-31 Milos Raonic, David Goffin, Federico Delbonis, Vasek Pospisil
25-30 Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta
24-29 Bernard Tomic, Jack Sock, Diego Schwartzman, Denis Kudla
Obviously the clock is ticking for these guys, who are the worst four-year stretch of players since the group born between Rod Laver (1938) and Arthur Ashe (1943). If they are going to win anything, it should probably be before the next group comes of age, so the time is really the next few years.
And then we have the younger generation(s). I'm grouping Thiem with this bunch:
23-28 Dominic Thiem, Jiri Vesely
22-27 Lucas Pouille
21-26 Nick Kyrgios, Kyle Edmund
20-25 Borna Coric, Karen Khachanov, Jared Donaldson, Quentin Halys, Daniil Medvedev, E Escobedo
19-24 Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Andrey Rublev, Tommy Paul
18-23 Frances Tiafoe, Duckhee Lee, Stefan Kozlov, Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Michael Mmoh
17-22 Denis Shapovalov
16-21 Felix Auger Aliassime
Who knows which of these guys will become top players, although some are clearly close and others look very promising.
Anyhow, what will be interesting to watch is how and when the baton is passed from the first group to the third group, and to what degree the second group will be involved, or whether they will be entirely passed over. It seems only a matter of time before Raonic or Nishikori, or even Dimitrov, wins a Masters...I mean its gotta happen at some point, right? Maybe the Paris Masters? If not, the year will end with no player age 27 and under with a Masters or Slam title on their mantle. That is just crazy.
But change is happening...slowly, but steadily. And it is going in a certain, inevitable direction. Maybe no one in the second or third group wins a Slam next year, but I think it likely that at least the Masters start breaking up, and who knows, maybe a Slam...
So here is the main point, to sum up: Over the next five years, maybe even less, we are going to see a complete sea change in men's tennis. Many of the stalwart names will have retired, with a new group rising to the top. One would think such a statement to be innocuous, but considering the lengthy reign of the Big Four (or Three or Five, depending upon how you look at it), which really goes back to early 2004, it really feels like--to quote the new Nobel prize winner--"the times they are a changin.'"
Regardless, though, things are changing. As of right now, Federer is 35, Wawrinka 31, Nadal 30, Murray and Djokovic 29. Roger is far from his prime, although still relevant, at least as of Wimbledon; Rafa is two and a half years from a Slam title, even a semifinal, but is still solidly in the top ten, and of course Andy and Novak are the two top players in the sport, and Stan just won the US Open. But while this group, as a whole, maintains their hold on the tour right now and for the near future, cracks are starting to grow. What we can reasonably be certain of is that sometime in the next 3-5 years, the balance of power will substantially shift--even fully.
Let's look at that time span: 2017-21. Here are the age ranges those and other older players will be, from the beginning of 2017 to the end of 2021.
35-40 Roger Federer, Feliciano Lopez
34-39 David Ferrer
32-37 Gilles Simon
31-36 Stan Wawrinka, Tomas Berdych, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
30-35 Rafael Nadal, Gael Monfils, Richard Gasquet
29-34 Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray
28-33 Marin Cilic, Juan Martin del Potro, Roberto Bautista Agut
Then we have the next group, the in-between group that has yet to make a mark - that is, win even a Masters:
27-32 Kei Nishikori, Martin Klizan, Benoit Paire, Steve Johnson
26-31 Milos Raonic, David Goffin, Federico Delbonis, Vasek Pospisil
25-30 Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta
24-29 Bernard Tomic, Jack Sock, Diego Schwartzman, Denis Kudla
Obviously the clock is ticking for these guys, who are the worst four-year stretch of players since the group born between Rod Laver (1938) and Arthur Ashe (1943). If they are going to win anything, it should probably be before the next group comes of age, so the time is really the next few years.
And then we have the younger generation(s). I'm grouping Thiem with this bunch:
23-28 Dominic Thiem, Jiri Vesely
22-27 Lucas Pouille
21-26 Nick Kyrgios, Kyle Edmund
20-25 Borna Coric, Karen Khachanov, Jared Donaldson, Quentin Halys, Daniil Medvedev, E Escobedo
19-24 Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Andrey Rublev, Tommy Paul
18-23 Frances Tiafoe, Duckhee Lee, Stefan Kozlov, Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Michael Mmoh
17-22 Denis Shapovalov
16-21 Felix Auger Aliassime
Who knows which of these guys will become top players, although some are clearly close and others look very promising.
Anyhow, what will be interesting to watch is how and when the baton is passed from the first group to the third group, and to what degree the second group will be involved, or whether they will be entirely passed over. It seems only a matter of time before Raonic or Nishikori, or even Dimitrov, wins a Masters...I mean its gotta happen at some point, right? Maybe the Paris Masters? If not, the year will end with no player age 27 and under with a Masters or Slam title on their mantle. That is just crazy.
But change is happening...slowly, but steadily. And it is going in a certain, inevitable direction. Maybe no one in the second or third group wins a Slam next year, but I think it likely that at least the Masters start breaking up, and who knows, maybe a Slam...
So here is the main point, to sum up: Over the next five years, maybe even less, we are going to see a complete sea change in men's tennis. Many of the stalwart names will have retired, with a new group rising to the top. One would think such a statement to be innocuous, but considering the lengthy reign of the Big Four (or Three or Five, depending upon how you look at it), which really goes back to early 2004, it really feels like--to quote the new Nobel prize winner--"the times they are a changin.'"
uzzled
