A Period of Upheaval?

[Kieran]

Well, the streak is broken. None of the top 4 won this major, first time since 2009.

Rafa picked up another inopportune injury - two of them, but the blister worked out - and hopefully this back injury won't be a longterm problem.

Nole has hired Becker, so we wait and see if that's going to work, though going by the mass of Nole fans here, it's not looking positive. Too early to say, but Nole had a disappointing Oz and a bad start to the season, from his usual. I expect, of course, that he'll pour everything into trying to get his hands on Paris.

Murray is still recovering from a back injury and looked about 60% here. He'll improve too.

Roger played well and still came up short against Rafa.

So, the Big 4 have a lot to reflect on. Meanwhile, Stan plunged the dagger - twice. Berdy stepped up and reached a semifinal again. Dimitrov played a hard match against Rafa, and what encouraged me most about Grigor was his reaction to defeat. He'll try hard to ensure that doesn't happen again.

Anybody think that El Dude's Doomsday Scenario is upon us? The Big 4 are about to be eclipsed? The game is going into a time of upheaval?

Or will normal service be resumed, once injuries and coaching issues are settled?

I think the Big 4 still have plenty of potential this year, but I'm happy with what I saw from a couple of players in Oz...

 

[Front242]

I reckon it'll be business as usual rest of the year. Fed has very little to defend and his ranking should go up. Murray will get back to full strength soon and imo is still the favourite for Wimbledon and I just can't see anyone else but Novak, Rafa, Murray or Fed winning the US Open. Wawrinka and Del Potro won't win there imo.

 

[Rose]

The top players are all getting older and sadly the injuries are starting to pile up on them. Right now is probably the best time for younger players on the Tour in a long time.

 

[Federberg]

Still numb with shock after that final. I think we could see some significant ranking moves in the top 10. Fed should go up, and probably get back in the top 4. He really doesn't have much to defend, and if his form in Australia is real he'll be defending a quarter at RG. I really don't know what to think about Nole. RG is massive for him. Still think he's the only realistic obstacle to Rafa in Paris. I think we've seen the peak in Ferrer's ranking, and it's going to be downhill from here, not sure how quickly it happens. As for Murray he has points to defend in the IW-Miami stretch, he may well still be out of the top 4 at Wimbledon, and that tourney is huge for him. I think Delpo and Fed could have real upside in the first half of the year. As of right now, I don't see how Rafa can be challenged for the year end no 1. That said his 2014 is unlikely to be as strong as 2013, so the rankings could tighten up. I just hope this injury doesn't impact his play for the rest of the year...

 

[Rose]

Still numb with shock after that final. I think we could see some significant ranking moves in the top 10. Fed should go up, and probably get back in the top 4. He really doesn't have much to defend, and if his form in Australia is real he'll be defending a quarter at RG. I really don't know what to think about Nole. RG is massive for him. Still think he's the only realistic obstacle to Rafa in Paris. I think we've seen the peak in Ferrer's ranking, and it's going to be downhill from here, not sure how quickly it happens. As for Murray he has points to defend in the IW-Miami stretch, he may well still be out of the top 4 at Wimbledon, and that tourney is huge for him. I think Delpo and Fed could have real upside in the first half of the year. As of right now, I don't see how Rafa can be challenged for the year end no 1. That said his 2014 is unlikely to be as strong as 2013, so the rankings could tighten up. I just hope this injury doesn't impact his play for the rest of the year...

I somewhat agree with your assessment. I'm not so sure Fed will move back up that high, although he might due to the less than outstanding year he had in 2013. It's hard to say about Murray after back surgery. I have never been able to figure out Delpo! Sometimes he looks like a world beater, but more often he looks like the world has beat him! And sadly I think Ferrer will indeed go down in the rankings. I'm very concerned about Rafa's latest injury. I think game wise the biggest shock to me was Nole's play at the AO :speechless:

 

[TsarMatt]

It will be an interesting year, for sure. In terms of Grand Slams, I can still see the Big 4 having a predominate ascendancy over it. But hopefully 2014 will sort of break the monopoly Nadal, Djokovic, Federer and Murray have had over the Master 1000s, and we'll start to see guys like Stan, Del Potro, Berdych, Raonic, Nishikori, Dimitrov, Tsonga, and various others be in contention for these titles. It's amazing to think that the two players who have a Grand Slam who are not the Big 4 since 2005, Del Potro and Stan, have not even won a Masters 1000 title. Maybe that will change. Let's hope so, at least for curiosity's sake.

 

[Moxie]

BTW, welcome Genie4ever.

 

[Kieran]

BTW, welcome Genie4ever.

I second that, welcome Genie4ever! Nice to meet you.

As for Federer, he had a lot of encouraging signs, but I said it to people in pm's here: Tsonga is like the Tin Man in Wizard of Oz, he lacks heart, and Murray was clearly not 100%. So while Roger dismissed them routinely, apart from one blip, it doesn't tell us a huge amount. He was definitely better, moving well, and most importantly his mood has improved, his confidence seems to be back. He finished 2013 strongly too, remember, results-wise, if not necessarily in his play.

But he's fallen much further back from Rafa, and from Nole too, I suspect. I don't fancy him getting a result at any slam, if he faces either of them, especially if he's coming to the net the way he was. Rafa sussed that fairly quick and put an end to it.

Lads, Federer is 32! He looked gassed in the 2nd set against Rafa. This is Father Time talking to him. It happens to every player. We saw dear old Rod Laver and the majestic Sampras watching on. The tour and time takes it out of even the very greatest. I didn't think it was a huge accomplishment for Rafa to dispatch Roger because a) he's always been better than him, and b) Roger is getting on.

I'd have been stunned if Roger had won. It's no shame, it's nature taking its course.

As for Rafa and Nole, well Rafa takes a huge lead in the rankings now, but in the race for the year's end ranking, Nole won 2000 points last year at Oz, and Rafa won zero. In other words, this tourney doesn't bring us much further along because there's a whole lotta year still ahead of us...

 

[Rose]

Thanks for the welcomes here I was really, really, really, happy to find this Forum

 

[Kieran]

Thanks for the welcomes here I was really, really, really, happy to find this Forum

You're welcome, genie4ever, looking forward to reading more from you...

 

[Front242]

BTW, welcome Genie4ever.

I second that, welcome Genie4ever! Nice to meet you.

As for Federer, he had a lot of encouraging signs, but I said it to people in pm's here: Tsonga is like the Tin Man in Wizard of Oz, he lacks heart, and Murray was clearly not 100%. So while Roger dismissed them routinely, apart from one blip, it doesn't tell us a huge amount. He was definitely better, moving well, and most importantly his mood has improved, his confidence seems to be back. He finished 2013 strongly too, remember, results-wise, if not necessarily in his play.

But he's fallen much further back from Rafa, and from Nole too, I suspect. I don't fancy him getting a result at any slam, if he faces either of them, especially if he's coming to the net the way he was. Rafa sussed that fairly quick and put an end to it.

Lads, Federer is 32! He looked gassed in the 2nd set against Rafa. This is Father Time talking to him. It happens to every player. We saw dear old Rod Laver and the majestic Sampras watching on. The tour and time takes it out of even the very greatest. I didn't think it was a huge accomplishment for Rafa to dispatch Roger because a) he's always been better than him, and b) Roger is getting on.

I'd have been stunned if Roger had won. It's no shame, it's nature taking its course.

As for Rafa and Nole, well Rafa takes a huge lead in the rankings now, but in the race for the year's end ranking, Nole won 2000 points last year at Oz, and Rafa won zero. In other words, this tourney doesn't bring us much further along because there's a whole lotta year still ahead of us...

I agree with the take on Fed except this part above. He wasn't better than him the times Roger won clearly.

 

[Kieran]

That's right, Roger's gotten a few wins. I meant "he's always been better than him where it matters", but I suppose I should have been more clear. My bad again...

 

[Front242]

That's right, Roger's gotten a few wins. I meant "he's always been better than him where it matters", but I suppose I should have been more clear. My bad again...

Most of the time, yes. Wimbledon 2006 and 2007, no since we're talking the ones that matter most"

 

[Kieran]

That's right, Roger's gotten a few wins. I meant "he's always been better than him where it matters", but I suppose I should have been more clear. My bad again...

Most of the time, yes. Wimbledon 2006 and 2007, no since we're talking the ones that matter most"

Ah yeah, forgot them, they were so long ago...

 

[Front242]

That's right, Roger's gotten a few wins. I meant "he's always been better than him where it matters", but I suppose I should have been more clear. My bad again...

Most of the time, yes. Wimbledon 2006 and 2007, no since we're talking the ones that matter most"

Ah yeah, forgot them, they were so long ago...

Easy to forget alright

 

[herios]

I called the end of the big 4 a LOOOONG time ago. Ever since Ferrer got into the mix. Now it is all broken loose.
Until proven otherwise, there is only a top 2 as far as I am concerned. And below them is wide opened race.
Stan winning will bring more sudden changes and this year will be a year to remember.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I called the end of the big 4 a LOOOONG time ago. Ever since Ferrer got into the mix. Now it is all broken loose.
Until proven otherwise, there is only a top 2 as far as I am concerned. And below them is wide opened race.
Stan winning will bring more sudden changes and this year will be a year to remember.

How is it all "broke loose"? Because Wawrinka won a slam? And yeah, the fact that you called the end of the big 4 a LOOOOOOOOOOOONG time ago is not something to brag about since you've been wrong about it so many times. Eventually you're bound to get it right. I'm not saying this to be a jerk but you've literally been predicting that new people will make a splash since 2008, to no avail. You also predicted Murray would never win a slam. Speaking of whom, it's shortsighted to disregard him because he was sidelined for a while. He's still the reigning Wimbledon champipn.

 

[El Dude]

"El Dude's Doomsday Scenario" - ha ha. I is inevitable, of course, but the question is when and to what degree. If you remember, I posited that in 2014 we'd start seeing seeing signs and symptoms (or portents and omens, to go along with the apocalyptic motif), but it wouldn't be clear that we were amidst a tidal shift until 2015, and by 2016 the field would be wide open.

Maybe I was a year late, that 2014 is the tidal shift and 2016 will be wide open. But I'm not ready to call that after one Slam. I think its clear that Nadal and Djokovic are head and shoulders above everyone else, but that both can be defeated by a very good player playing at his very best.

Some questions going forward this year...

Novak has been mortal for awhile now. He's still great, but we've been waiting for another multi-Slam year and it is now looking less and less likely. Has he become more of a one-Slam a year player?

Can Rafa maintain his 2013 level? I think he was running on determination and momentum towards the end, but even he might not be able to maintain for long.

Is Roger's revival legit or more of a dead-cat bounce? He beat Tsonga and Murray, but as Kieran pointed out, neither were at the top of their games (still, a few months ago and he would have lost to either, even in their reduced state).

Will Andy return to his level of last summer? For a bit there it looked like a Big Three, but then he faded late in the year and then was injured.

Looking at their Slam totals, we have to start accepting the possibility that Novak (6) might be lucky to make it to 10, Rafa (13) is not a sure-thing to eclipse Federer's 17, and its not a foregone conclusion that Andy (2) will join the elite 4+ Slam club. I think all three can happen, but all are questionable.

Stan's win is huge in that it breaks the psychological hold the Big Four have over the game, if not for the players then at least for us, the fans!

 

[El Dude]

herios, I just can't agree with you that Ferrer's rise marked the end of the Big Four. Ferrer was never, not even close really, in the same category as the Big Four. For a few years Murray was the "best of the rest" until he won the US Open, then he became the "worst of the best" and we had a legit Big Four for a period of time. But Ferrer hasn't even really be the "best of the rest." He's been the most consistent of the second tier, but I've never seen him as a better player than Tsonga, Berdych, or Del Potro. In fact, at their very best, Ferrer is probably the inferior player.

No knock on David, of course.

 

[Moxie]

It will be an interesting year, for sure. In terms of Grand Slams, I can still see the Big 4 having a predominate ascendancy over it. But hopefully 2014 will sort of break the monopoly Nadal, Djokovic, Federer and Murray have had over the Master 1000s, and we'll start to see guys like Stan, Del Potro, Berdych, Raonic, Nishikori, Dimitrov, Tsonga, and various others be in contention for these titles. It's amazing to think that the two players who have a Grand Slam who are not the Big 4 since 2005, Del Potro and Stan, have not even won a Masters 1000 title. Maybe that will change. Let's hope so, at least for curiosity's sake.

Wimbledon last year saw a big upheaval, even though the top 2 seeds made the final on the men's side. This one seems to be proving a trend. We shall see.