On the grass, even though Kei has been solid on the grass, Fed is the clear favorite. But if Fed is off, Kei is a man that can take advantage of it. It's really that simple. If Fed plays well, he should win this in 4 or less. If Fed starts slow, the first set could go to Kei quickly. But it could also be Kei that starts slow and Fed could take the first set in a flash.
I hate that Kei ended up in this quarter. But if I have to pick between the two, I'm rooting for Fed because I don't know how many more chances he has to win this thing. But if Kei surprises us, seeing as there's nothing I can do about it, I'll be happy for Kei. Disappointed still a bit. But certainly happy for Kei.
Tactically. It's Kei's serve that is his weakness. He has a good serve for his size. He goes for it. He makes a high percentage of first serves most of the time. But he's 5'11" and that means he just can't dominate with that serve. Never has. Never will. It's fine against most of the tour, though he still gets beaten by guys he should beat all the time. It's why even though he can construct a point as well as the big 3 and can more than hang with them in rallies, he always loses to Novak. Novak will break Kei more than Kei can break Novak. On Kei's own serve, he too often starts on the back foot against the big 3. And that should be true for Fed tomorrow as well. It's been Fed that has come out on top in 7 of their 10 meetings. I will say all of their matches have been close or somewhat close. We've seen Nishikori take Fed to 5 sets in Australia. He won their last match at the YEC last year in two tight sets.
Of the big 3, just because of his age, on paper I'd say Fed is the most likely to be upset. His opponent is in the top 10. Has been in the top 10 most of his career. Has a slam final. Has been to the quarters of all the slams. Is firmly ensconced in the second tier. And Fed is the lowest ranked of the big 3. The oldest and has had the "worst" year of the big 3. But it took Anderson 5 sets and deep into the 5th set to beat Fed last year. I think Nishikori would have to play some out of this world tennis, that I haven't seen from him in a long time, to beat Fed tomorrow.