2016: A Tale of Two Novaks?

[El Dude]

In the Cincinnati thread, Front242 said that "Novak's been shocking by his standards for the last few months anyway" - shocking in a negative way. Not to take Front's quote too literally, this does seem to be the general view: that after the nigh-unbeatable Novak of late 2014 to early 2016, all of sudden he's vulnerable again. But to what degree? Let's take a look at Novak's season so far.

Novak began the season with 14 straight match wins, winning the title in Qatar and the Australian Open before losing to Feliciano Lopez in the QF of Dubai. He then went on a 14-match streak, including titles at Indian Wells and Miami, with a 28-1 record through Miami. He then lost to Jiri Vesely in Monte Carlo, won Madrid but lost in the Rome final to Andy Murray. Record at 37-3. He then won Roland Garros and was sitting on a rather magnificent 44-3 (94%) record at the midpoint of the year, 2-for-2 in Slam titles and with 3-of-5 Masters in his trophy case.

Since then, Novak lost in the third round of Wimbledon to Sam Querrey, won the Canada Masters, and lost to del Potro in the Olympics for a 7-2 record. His season stands at 51-5 (91%), which is his third best winning percentage after 2015 (93%) and 2011 (92%), and his only two-Slam season after those two three-Slam seasons.

The question is, has Novak played worse over the last few months? If we look at his 28-1 record through Miami (97%), his record has been a relatively pedestrian 23-4 (85%) since. That's four and a half months in which Novak has looked more like the still-great-but-mortal player he was in 2012-14, when he won 88% of his matches (actually, he's been a bit worse). That said, during that span of time Novak has still managed to win half of the Slams and Masters he's played in--an enviable return on investment for any other player on tour.

It may also be a bit worrisome for Novak's fans that his losses seem to be coming with greater frequency. Here are his win-streaks between losses, going back to his loss to Federer at Cincinnati a year ago:

Roger Federer at Cincinnati 2015
23 wins
Roger Federer at WTF 2015
17 wins
Feliciano Lopez at Dubai
14 wins
Viri Vesely at Monte Carlo
9 wins
Andy Murray at Rome
9 wins
Sam Querrey at Wimbledon
5 wins
Juan Martin del Potro at Rio Olympics

Make of that what you will. The question is whether he can re-focus and regain control of the reins of the tour, or whether this is a sign of further slippage to come. My guess is that he stabilizes for a couple years at a slightly reduced level, more along the lines of "first among equals" in 2012-14 rather than the utter dominance of 2011/15.

But we shall see...

 

[DarthFed]

Too early to say, he's still won 2 of the 3 slams and 4 MS events. If he loses at the USO in shocking fashion like Wimbledon then this may deserve more consideration. He is 29 and has played tons of tennis over the past five years in particular. The year Roger and Rafa turned 29 (2010 and 2015 respectively) saw an enormous drop in form. Both those guys had far worse years than Nole had in 2016 even if Novak doesn't win another match the rest of the year.

 

[El Dude]

Yes, true, Darth. Although to be fair to Roger and Rafa, in 2010 Roger had to contend with Rafa at his very best and a rising Novak and Andy, and in 2015 Rafa had to contend with peak Andy and Novak and a still potent Roger. As has been much discussed, Novak's decline may be softened by the relative weakness of the tour right now.

But I agree that it is too early to say, that we need to see how the rest of the year plays out, in particular the USO and WTF. I think also that the Australian Open in 2017 will be an important indicator for Novak, and whether he can maintain his dominance. If he wins the 2017 AO, I think he has a good chance at the year-end #1 that year, but if he loses I think he might just lose his crown as well.

 

[DarthFed]

In 2015 the top guys were the least of Rafa's worries. He was busy losing to just about everyone. In 2010 it was relatively awful for Roger after the AO that year, his SF streak was broken by Sod at RG and then he lost easily at Wimbledon to Berd in the QF. In the semis of USO vs. a very weak version of Nole he choked away the match. Rafa was the least of his worries that year, he wasn't even getting far enough to play him.

I don't think Nole's 2016 is even remotely comparable in achievements and level of play if we are being honest. Nole has had 2 bad losses after a historic feat but that doesn't make up a whole year. Even if he doesn't win the USO it's still been a tremendous year and he probably will still be #1 at year end.

 

[El Dude]

I agree that the years don't line up all that well, but my point is that while we can say that Roger was clearly the best in the sport from 2004-07, and co-best with Rafa in 2008-09, by 2010 it was clear that Rafa had taken sole ownership of the title. For Novak there is no equivalent, no younger, stronger and hungrier player of similar talent reaching his prime. All of the players who have any chance of being that next great are teenagers -- 10+ years younger than Novak. The oldest of the "potential greats" is Alex Zverev, who is almost exactly a decade younger than Novak. By comparison, the equivalent age player relative to Roger would be players born in 1991: Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta.

So to recreate Roger's career with Novak's context, let's first look at Novak's current context and then apply it to the equivalent year in Roger's career age-wise (2010). Right now there are two other all-time greats active, Roger and Rafa. Roger has been injured much of the year and is 4 years removed from his last Slam, still a very good player but a shadow of his former self. Rafa is over two years removed from his last Slam and also struggling.

The next best player is Andy Murray, who is what I would call a "near-great" but not in the same category. After him you have a host of tier 2 players: Wawrinka, Cilic, Tsonga, Ferrer, Berdych, Nishikori, Raonic, Del Potro, etc, some of whom are starting to fade a bit, some of whom appear to be in their prime. But of players within the rough broad prime range of years, say age 21-29, there are no other true all-time greats, and only three other Slam winners (Stan, Marin, and Juan Martin).

So let's translate that Roger in 2010. First of all, you have to completely erase Novak, Rafa, and probably Andy from the mix. Then you have to say that the next best player is someone like Andy Roddick at his very best, or perhaps a more consistent Marat Safin or an in-prime Lleyton Hewitt. In other words, to approximate Andy Murray you could pick one of those three and juice them up to their very best. Then you have a host of players similar to Roger's peers: Ferrero, Nalbandian, Davydenko, Ferrer, Coria. Those are the bulk of the top 10. Finally, you have a couple of aging former greats, perhaps Agassi and Sampras in their 30s. Then you have to imagine that the next great player is a teenager.

Wait a minute, this hypothetical 2010 is starting to sound an awful lot like Roger's prime years of 2004-07...but without Rafa. So really what we're talking about is 2004. The competitiveness of the tour in 2004, dominated by Roger and his peers and with Rafa not yet reaching his form of 2005, is about what we see in the tour today.

So if we imagine the 2010 version of Roger with a field similar to 2004--or 2016, for that matter--I think we'd see a better record. Let's say he would have won that US Open, and probably two or three more Masters. So he would have two Slams and 3-4 Masters, plus the WTF, and been the clear #1 on tour. Again, this is without Rafa, Novak, and Andy. It wouldn't have been as good as his best, but it would have been similar to 2009 and looked like a softer decline than what actually happened.

Now I'm not saying that Novak in 2016 is at the same level as Roger in 2010. For one, Roger seemed to slip earlier than Novak has. But what I am saying is that a player's results are the combination of two factors: how well he plays, and what the opposition (or field) is. If the latter factor was exactly the same in 2010 for Roger as it has been in 2016 for Novak, I think their performances would come a bit closer together than they currently are. They wouldn't meet, but they'd be closer.

 

[lacatch]

I do really appreciate all the good analysis, but Novak's "slippage" this year has occurred while nursing a chronic wrist injury. If he's 100% or close to it, let's see what happens at the US OPEN and the rest of the year before starting the "decline dance" lol.

 

[El Dude]

Of course. That said, the "decline dance" often starts and ends with injuries piling up, becoming nagging, slower to recover from, diminishing confidence, etc.

Actually, it would be an interesting study: which players (especially greats) went the way of the dodo through injuries, and which just gradually declined through natural aging, loss of interest, etc. I don't think there would be any way to see that from the record - it would have to be a research study of news articles, interviews, etc.

 

[Backhand_DTL]

I think there is definitely a slight decline in consistency and ability to really play each match at a sufficiently high level because this year especially in the first three rounds of a tournament Novak doesn't seem to be as good at managing to play just well enough to win somewhat comfortably as he was in 2015.

In most events he struggled rather early but apart from Rome he played quite well once he reached the semi finals so his A-level seems to be quite similar to last year. Also in four of his losses he seemed emotionally or physically worn out so there are signs that mileage is catching up with him in some way here or there. The match against Del Potro stands out among his defeats as in my opinion that was the only loss that was clearly more caused by the opponent playing great than Novak playing poor.

It's hard to determine how much his struggle with minor injuries plays a role in him being rather vulnerable recently but even with those problems there are few players who can threaten Novak when he plays at the level of his last two matches in Toronto or even the match at the Olympics so with best-of-five usually playing into his hands I still expect him to be quite tough to beat at the US Open.

If he is fully healthy for most of the time I don't see anyone to replace him as the world's best player until at least the end of next year as the match up with Andy has gotten quite favourable for Novak since the end of 2012 and anybody else is extremely far behind in terms of consistency at the moment but also don't expect him to ever be as dominant as from Beijing 2014 to Miami 2016 again.

 

[El Dude]

It will be interesting to see what happens with a Murray-Djokovic matchup at the USO, with Andy flying high and Novak a bit creaky. I would still favor Novak, but it would be a bit less certain than a few months ago.

Either way, Novak remains the player to beat and the best in the world. The difference between now and four months ago is simply that the gap between him and #2 is narrower. It may be that 2016 Novak : 2016 Murray :: 2012 Novak : 2012 Federer.

 

[Backhand_DTL]

It will be interesting to see what happens with a Murray-Djokovic matchup at the USO, with Andy flying high and Novak a bit creaky. I would still favor Novak, but it would be a bit less certain than a few months ago.

Either way, Novak remains the player to beat and the best in the world. The difference between now and four months ago is simply that the gap between him and #2 is narrower. It may be that 2016 Novak : 2016 Murray :: 2012 Novak : 2012 Federer.

Right now Andy seems less vulnerable against the field but if they meet each other in the final I think Novak would be a considerable favourite if his health seems alright leading up to it. Especially over best-of-five Andy hasn't found a solution to Novak grinding him down and at some point later in the match (usually the third or fourth set) Novak often seems physically superior as he doesn't need to work as hard for each point because of his similarly effective first and better and more consistent second serve and in general more offensive court position. If they split the first two sets Novak has won all of their Slam matches so Andy basically needs a 2:0 lead to have a chance.

While Andy improved his second serve this year it's not at a level that should bother Novak so there's still a lot of pressure on his first serve in their matchup if Novak plays well as they are quite even playing backhand to backhand and forehand to forehand is usually a pattern that favours Novak.

The situation between Novak and Andy this year in my opinion is more comparable to the one between Rafa and Novak 2013 where one player wins more big titles but has an early loss here or there while the other one is more consistent and very often reaches at least the semi finals but wins fewer significant tournaments which keeps the ranking quite close.

 

[BIG3]

Among Nole's 5 loss so far this year, only one was after semi, Rome final. This is completely different from 2012-2014 "best of equals", which he consistently went to late stage of every tournament, but didn't have obvious edge against Fedal, Muuray, and Stan, especially on MAJORS.

Right now, he could be vernurable in the early rounds. But once he edged out into semi, he could elevate his level and win the whole thing. The strategy worked very well so far. He might lose consistency, but plays smarter. As his fan, would you prefer deep run or better % in final? In a sense, he is more of peak Rafa, than sweeping Roger, in 2016.

 

[BIG3]

Nole-Andy rivalry is more like Fedal 2008-2010. If Rafa reached semi, he pretty much could ink his name on champion trophy. But if he was off, Fed could basket everything else. If both in good form and met in final, you know what's gonna happen.

Nole turned the table against Rafa in 2001. In 2013, if my memory served well, their H2H is split, though Rafa won bigger trophy. But still, in FO and USO, Nole's fan at some stage could have seen beam of hope. But I didn't see it in Andy's case. He couldn't win 2 sets, or anything close to it (Nole's 3rd set in 2013 USO).

It might be unfair to Andy, so far they met in AO and FO, surfaces favor Nole. I hope they can meet in USO and provide more hints.

 

[El Dude]

The Novak-Rafa rivalry really has some distinct stages. First you have 2006-2010, with Rafa entering and in his prime and leading 16-7. Then Novak won 7 straight in 2011 and into 2012, before Rafa went 6-1 through most of 2012 and deep into 2013. Since late 2013 (Beijing), it has almost all been Novak, 11-1, the one loss being the 2014 RG. But Novak has won the last seven matches they've played and it is hard seeing him lose another match to Rafa ever, unless it is on clay and he is struggling and/or Rafa drinking from the fountain of youth.

 

[El Dude]

It is also worth noting that from the beginning of 2011--a span of now six years--Novak leads the h2h 19-7. In other words, for the last six years he's been about as dominant over Rafa as Rafa has been over Roger.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I saw a twitter snippet Novak practicing with Cilic.. it appeared to indicate that Novak was getting treatment on his wrist.. What's the latest on Novak's wrist

 

[Fiero425]

It is also worth noting that from the beginning of 2011--a span of now six years--Novak leads the h2h 19-7. In other words, for the last six years he's been about as dominant over Rafa as Rafa has been over Roger.

But "some" like to say Nole took over after Rafa was broken down; totally overlooking the fact Rafa had a spurt where he took back the #1 ranking and won 3 more FO! These "experts" need to have some consistency in their BS! Either it's been a weak era or it hasn't with 3 of the ATG's coming to the fore! :cover uzzled :nono :angel:

 

[Backhand_DTL]

I saw a twitter snippet Novak practicing with Cilic.. it appeared to indicate that Novak was getting treatment on his wrist.. What's the latest on Novak's wrist

It's getting better but he's not sure if he will be able to hit his backhand normally on Monday. He also said in his pre tournament press conference that his recent wrist injury happened in the week between Toronto and the Olympics and that private issues played a bigger role in his Wimbledon performance than physical problems.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I saw a twitter snippet Novak practicing with Cilic.. it appeared to indicate that Novak was getting treatment on his wrist.. What's the latest on Novak's wrist

It's getting better but he's not sure if he will be able to hit his backhand normally on Monday. He also said in his pre tournament press conference that his recent wrist injury happened in the week between Toronto and the Olympics and that private issues played a bigger role in his Wimbledon performance than physical problems.

Wow.. He is no where near 100%..I may go to Vegas and drop some coin on cough drop..Clay death obviously knew this was going on and that's maybe why he went out on a limb saying Cilic would win this title. (Talk about insider trader info:clap)

 

[Front242]

I saw a twitter snippet Novak practicing with Cilic.. it appeared to indicate that Novak was getting treatment on his wrist.. What's the latest on Novak's wrist

It's getting better but he's not sure if he will be able to hit his backhand normally on Monday. He also said in his pre tournament press conference that his recent wrist injury happened in the week between Toronto and the Olympics and that private issues played a bigger role in his Wimbledon performance than physical problems.

Wow.. He is no where near 100%..I may go to Vegas and drop some coin on cough drop..Clay death obviously knew this was going on and that's maybe why he went out on a limb saying Cilic would win this title. (Talk about insider trader info:clap)

Which title did he say Cilic would win? I checked the whole 7 pages of the Cinci thread and he didn't even make one post. He saying he thinks Cilic is going to win the US Open?

 

[El Dude]

It is also worth noting that from the beginning of 2011--a span of now six years--Novak leads the h2h 19-7. In other words, for the last six years he's been about as dominant over Rafa as Rafa has been over Roger.

But "some" like to say Nole took over after Rafa was broken down; totally overlooking the fact Rafa had a spurt where he took back the #1 ranking and won 3 more FO! These "experts" need to have some consistency in their BS! Either it's been a weak era or it hasn't with 3 of the ATG's coming to the fore! :cover uzzled :nono :angel:

Actually, Novak took over when Rafa was at his very best. If you look at Rafa's record in 2010, his best year--and 2011, when Novak took over--Rafa's record is exactly the same against non-Novak opponents. In other words, Novak at his best surpassed Rafa at his best.

But then 2013 came around and, for a time, Rafa repaid the compliment. But it didn't last and I think overall we have to say that peak Novak is better than peak Rafa, at last slightly and overall.