2023 Wimbledon QF: Alcaraz vs. Rune

[tented]

Who wins?

 

[Kieran]

The smart money is on Chaz, but I think the pressure is all on him, as well. It was natural he let it get to him in Paris, and a bonus of having a tough draw here is that he’s not sloping through the rounds in a lazy dream like he was in Paris, thinking only of the semi as if it was the only match.

In the end, it was, and his mind wasn’t ready for it, and his body got to give him the bad news. This time he has no space to lounge back with a big cigar thinking of the trophy , and getting himself in an awful state. He has something urgent on his desk that needs to be dealt with. And a whole different sort of pressure. This time he’s the one with the target on his back, and he can’t help but feel that this is slightly unjust. He hasn’t achieved anything at Wimbledon to deserve it, but Rune has no pressure on him at all.

And he’s a nasty little bastard, in the nicest way possible.

I have a feeling Holger might win, but a slightly stronger feeling that Carlos will win. That’s how tough it is to call. Why will he win? Because he’s shown that he can win big matches at this level.

No escape from Alcaraz for Prince Hamlet’s evil twin. Chaz to win in four or five sets…

 

[Moxie]

The smart money is on Chaz, but I think the pressure is all on him, as well. It was natural he let it get to him in Paris, and a bonus of having a tough draw here is that he’s not sloping through the rounds in a lazy dream like he was in Paris, thinking only of the semi as if it was the only match.

In the end, it was, and his mind wasn’t ready for it, and his body got to give him the bad news. This time he has no space to lounge back with a big cigar thinking of the trophy , and getting himself in an awful state. He has something urgent on his desk that needs to be dealt with. And a whole different sort of pressure. This time he’s the one with the target on his back, and he can’t help but feel that this is slightly unjust. He hasn’t achieved anything at Wimbledon to deserve it, but Rune has no pressure on him at all.

And he’s a nasty little bastard, in the nicest way possible.

I have a feeling Holger might win, but a slightly stronger feeling that Carlos will win. That’s how tough it is to call. Why will he win? Because he’s shown that he can win big matches at this level.

No escape from Alcaraz for Prince Hamlet’s evil twin. Chaz to win in four or five sets…

Excellent post, and great recap of Carlos' recent performances and draws, RG and W. It really could go either way, though, like you, I feel Carlos is the sturdier in the big moments. I don't agree that Holger has no pressure, because he's an ambitious fellow. Plus, they're same-Gen. I've said before I think this could be a great rivalry in the future, and I bet they think so, too.

It's surprising that the H2H is essentially meaningless at this point...almost as if they've never really played. I think they'll be gunning for each other, big time. Popcorn match, for sure.

EDIT: I went Alcaraz in 4.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

This matchup will come down to whoever can avoid the cramps. (jk jk)

In all seriousness, I think Rune is overdue for a big win. I think he comes through in 5 sets.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

At this stage I feel Alcaraz has the more gears to go to when the need be in matches, also he is more focused and mature than Rune.
Alcaraz is still finding his game on the grass, though I was most impressed with his return game against Berrettini yesterday.,, this young man is 'special' and I said that when he won his first GS title at the USO last year, he is my favorite youngster to watch in the ATP.
Alcaraz in 4 sets.

 

[lomaha]

No heart hopes for Rune, but my money's on Carlos...
It's going to be a fun first Slam-match of many between those great kids. Love it.

 

[Kieran]

No heart hopes for Rune, but my money's on Carlos...
It's going to be a fun first Slam-match of many between those great kids. Love it.

And it’s Holger’s first dance on Centre Court. I think he has the swagger and ability to make himself at home. I imagine that a long time into the future we’ll look back at this match as being an exciting beginning of a great rivalry..

 

[Kieran]

Excellent post, and great recap of Carlos' recent performances and draws, RG and W. It really could go either way, though, like you, I feel Carlos is the sturdier in the big moments. I don't agree that Holger has no pressure, because he's an ambitious fellow. Plus, they're same-Gen. I've said before I think this could be a great rivalry in the future, and I bet they think so, too.

It's surprising that the H2H is essentially meaningless at this point...almost as if they've never really played. I think they'll be gunning for each other, big time. Popcorn match, for sure.

EDIT: I went Alcaraz in 4.

The reason I think reading all the pressure is on Carlos is that there’s so much more expectancy around him. He’s a much bigger name, and he’s further down the path in his career than Holger. If he loses, it’ll be bigger news than if he wins.

But yeah, there will be some pressure on Holger, a lot of it self generated, which is good for him…

 

[the AntiPusher]

The smart money is on Chaz, but I think the pressure is all on him, as well. It was natural he let it get to him in Paris, and a bonus of having a tough draw here is that he’s not sloping through the rounds in a lazy dream like he was in Paris, thinking only of the semi as if it was the only match.

In the end, it was, and his mind wasn’t ready for it, and his body got to give him the bad news. This time he has no space to lounge back with a big cigar thinking of the trophy , and getting himself in an awful state. He has something urgent on his desk that needs to be dealt with. And a whole different sort of pressure. This time he’s the one with the target on his back, and he can’t help but feel that this is slightly unjust. He hasn’t achieved anything at Wimbledon to deserve it, but Rune has no pressure on him at all.

And he’s a nasty little bastard, in the nicest way possible.

I have a feeling Holger might win, but a slightly stronger feeling that Carlos will win. That’s how tough it is to call. Why will he win? Because he’s shown that he can win big matches at this level.

No escape from Alcaraz for Prince Hamlet’s evil twin. Chaz to win in four or five sets…

First time in a while I haven't seen you @Kieran willing to step out on your faith..Not comparing The two players but the Young Greek was the heavy favorite over Eubanks but the less experience player won. Carlitos isn't facing any of those weaken knee players he faced during his USO run to the title. Rune has all the tools plus as the analysts has borrowed my stance on Holger, he ain't afraid of Anyone. That's an intangible that CAN'T be forgotten when trying to predict this match. As usual, THIS board is gonna go with the Favorite which is understandable and I will stick with the underdog who has the Rafa fighting mentality but lacks the discipline at THIS point in his young career. Rune in 5 but his body will suffer from the intense battle vs the Great Spaniard.

 

[Kieran]

First time in a while I haven't seen you @Kieran willing to step out on your faith..Not comparing The two players but the Young Greek was the heavy favorite over Eubanks but the less experience player won. Carlitos isn't facing any of those weaken knee players he faced during his USO run to the title. Rune has all the tools plus as the analysts has borrowed my stance on Holger, he ain't afraid of Anyone. That's an intangible that CAN'T be forgotten when trying to predict this match. As usual, THIS board is gonna go with the Favorite which is understandable and I will stick with the underdog who has the Rafa fighting mentality but lacks the discipline at THIS point in his young career. Rune in 5 but his body will suffer from the intense battle vs the Great Spaniard.

I know, I’m hedging my bets because there’s just so much room for speculation in this match. Anything can happen and I won’t be surprised. I’m hopeful for a great match. My only reason for saying I “have a slightly stronger feeling that Carlos will win” is because we’ve seen him win at this level. That’s a shaky ground to be on because I don’t know that Holger can’t win at this level. We just haven’t seen it yet, so on that insecure premise, I’m going with Carlitos.

Barely!

 

[kskate2]

First time in a while I haven't seen you @Kieran willing to step out on your faith..Not comparing The two players but the Young Greek was the heavy favorite over Eubanks but the less experience player won. Carlitos isn't facing any of those weaken knee players he faced during his USO run to the title. Rune has all the tools plus as the analysts has borrowed my stance on Holger, he ain't afraid of Anyone. That's an intangible that CAN'T be forgotten when trying to predict this match. As usual, THIS board is gonna go with the Favorite which is understandable and I will stick with the underdog who has the Rafa fighting mentality but lacks the discipline at THIS point in his young career. Rune in 5 but his body will suffer from the intense battle vs the Great Spaniard.

Only in your playbook was Tits the fave. I (and some others) knew that tall dude could put The Potty King down. I'm a little surprised it took 5 sets, but it was expected nerves would play a factor

 

[the AntiPusher]

Only in your playbook was Tits the fave. I (and some others) knew that tall dude could put The Potty King down. I'm a little surprised it took 5 sets, but it was expected nerves would play a factor

Whatever @kskate2 Keli !

 

[Kieran]

Only in your playbook was Tits the fave. I (and some others) knew that tall dude could put The Potty King down. I'm a little surprised it took 5 sets, but it was expected nerves would play a factor

The Potty King!

 

[don_fabio]

Rune is heavily underrated here as per the bookies odds. They give Alcaraz 80% chance to win, that's too much IMO.

I'm hoping for a great match and 5 sets. I give a slight edge to Alcaraz.

 

[the AntiPusher]

The Potty King!

Hey the Young Greek PLAYED a fantastic tournament. Y'all are too mean to Stefano's personality.. jajaja

 

[Kieran]

The players as kids together

 

[El Dude]

This is arguably the most exciting match of the year.

As someone said, my heart is with Rune but I'd bet on Carlos. I wouldn't be surprised to see Holger get frustrated and implode. But I voted for Holger in 5, anyway.

 

[lomaha]

The players as kids together

That is so cute. Holger has said in an interview that Carlos didn't speak much english at the time so they had to communicate by signs...

 

[Jelenafan]

My unbiased analysis:

The Danish Angel in five messy inefficient sets. I feel he walked the tightrope in the Fokina & Dimitrov matches and its prepped him enough.

The match will be the tennis version of “ War & Peace”, enough drama & angst & cursing & tears & roiling emotions and of course whatever is also happening on Carlos side of the net. : )

 

[the AntiPusher]

When Rune stops using his Gamenmenship Tactics like he did in the 4th set today I might just come around to liking as a player,calling the trainer?
I dont like any player that tanks to conserve energy to keep their energy for the 5th set,
I would admire Rune, if he tried to compete in the 4th set, on clay you have to compete on every point and focus
Rune also wastes too much emotional energy trying to get the crowd on his side, it also can be a downfall in matches going forward
For posters saying that Cerundolo is overated well their nearly had to choke on their words today in this match
Yes Francisco got tight and lost the match, too many UFE, though he competed in every set, I have always liked him as a player

I'm just being honest.. You are talking about a kid who is trying to find his way into the tennis world but I dont recall you making these statements about your countryman Kyrgios .. I get it you dont like Holger and I doubt if there's anything he could ever change about his personality that you would fancy.