Young Player Watch (aka waiting for the Big Three Hegemony to crumble)

[El Dude]

We've had threads in the past that focused on Next Gen, but with an even younger generation starting to become relevant (Auger-Aliassime, Sinner, etc), I thought I'd open it up a bit. The point of this thread is for general conversation about the young players on tour, with one topic of conversation being what we we're all wondering:

Who is going to breakthrough first and step into the inner circle as a peer with the Big Three? Will it happen while the Big Three are still playing in good form, or will it have to wait until they start to significantly decline?

One thought to get things started. As many of you know, Felix Auger-Aliassime is now 0-5 in ATP finals. No all-time great (6+ Slam winners) in the Open Era has started their careers losing their first five ATP finals; Borg lost his first four but won his fifth. Being that I'm a fan of FAA, I'm going to spin this positively. In my mind, what is keeping him from breaking through as a true elite are two things: One, his second serve is poor, which can be remedied with time; two, just plain inexperience (he's only 19). But my positive spin is that he's getting to a lot of finals and once he finally wins one, it will be a flood-gate: the confidence will lead him to becoming a true force on the tour. Assuming he does that sometime this year, we'll see a big jump and a top 10 finish, possibly a Masters title and a deep Slam run or two. But in 2021, look out, he's going to start winning big.

 

[El Dude]

Here's the under 25 Live Rankings, as of 2/25:
5. Daniil Medvedev (24)
6. Stefanos Tsitsipas (21)
7. Alexander Zverev (22)
8. Matteo Berretini (23)
14. Andrey Rublev (22)
15. Karen Khachanov (23)
16. Denis Shapovalov (20)
18. Cristian Garin (23)
19. Felix Auger-Aliassime (19)
25. Alex de Minaur (21)
27. Hubert Hurkacz (23)
31. Borna Coric (23)
34. Taylor Fritz (22)
37. Reilly Opelka (22)
38. Nick Kyrgios (24)
39. Casper Ruud (21)
41. Ugo Humbert (21)
45. Lorenzo Sonego (24)
46. Miomir Kecmanovic (20)
47. Yoshihito Nishioka (24)
50. Alexander Bublik (22)
61. Tommy Paul (22)
67. Mikael Ymer (21)
70. Jannik Sinner (18)
73. Corentin Moutet (20)
76. Cameron Norrie (24)
78. Laslo Djere (24)
79. Frances Tiafoe (22)
88. Nicolas Jarry (24)
90. Soonwoo Kwon (22)
95. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (20)
97. Lloyd Harris (23)
101. Emil Ruusuvuori (20)
102. Alexie Popyrin (20)
105. Jaume Munar (22)
etc.

 

[Moxie]

Nice thread, and thanks for the current rankings list. I will say this about FAA: you note that no other player of note has lost his first 5 finals. But we also have outliers like Wawrinka, for achieving much late. And Felix is only 18. I don't think a measure like that has to matter a lot, especially as players are doing better later, and "great teenagers" are pretty scarce. He has plenty of time to still hit the mark for "first Major" as a marker for many. For sure 2nd serve is fixable. (Look at Nadal and his progress on serve over the years. Or Novak, for that matter.) Amongst the real young ones, I also like Sinner. That's a start, but you pose other interesting questions.

 

[Jelenafan]

We've had threads in the past that focused on Next Gen, but with an even younger generation starting to become relevant (Auger-Aliassime, Sinner, etc), I thought I'd open it up a bit. The point of this thread is for general conversation about the young players on tour, with one topic of conversation being what we we're all wondering:

Who is going to breakthrough first and step into the inner circle as a peer with the Big Three? Will it happen while the Big Three are still playing in good form, or will it have to wait until they start to significantly decline?

One thought to get things started. As many of you know, Felix Auger-Aliassime is now 0-5 in ATP finals. No all-time great (6+ Slam winners) in the Open Era has started their careers losing their first five ATP finals; Borg lost his first four but won his fifth. Being that I'm a fan of FAA, I'm going to spin this positively. In my mind, what is keeping him from breaking through as a true elite are two things: One, his second serve is poor, which can be remedied with time; two, just plain inexperience (he's only 19). But my positive spin is that he's getting to a lot of finals and once he finally wins one, it will be a flood-gate: the confidence will lead him to becoming a true force on the tour. Assuming he does that sometime this year, we'll see a big jump and a top 10 finish, possibly a Masters title and a deep Slam run or two. But in 2021, look out, he's going to start winning big.

I like FAA’s size (6‘-4”, 197 pounds), which is IMO the new ideal. No reason he can’t eventually amp that 2nd serve.

 

[Front242]

I like FAA’s size (6‘-4”, 197 pounds), which is IMO the new ideal. No reason he can’t eventually amp that 2nd serve.

Didn't realize he was that tall.

 

[tented]

Didn't realize he was that tall.

Me neither. I thought it was a typo, so I checked. It’s all true.

 

[Moxie]

Didn't realize he was that tall.

I only realized recently. After he lost in Rotterdam to Monfils, I saw a formal photo of both of them with tournament officials, etc., and noticed that Felix was the tallest person in the photo, to my surprise. So I looked him up, when he played Tsitsipas, and they are listed as same height, with Tsitsipas having a few more pounds on him, so far, as Felix is still filling out, I'd say. Yes, I was surprised, too.

 

[El Dude]

Nice thread, and thanks for the current rankings list. I will say this about FAA: you note that no other player of note has lost his first 5 finals. But we also have outliers like Wawrinka, for achieving much late. And Felix is only 18. I don't think a measure like that has to matter a lot, especially as players are doing better later, and "great teenagers" are pretty scarce. He has plenty of time to still hit the mark for "first Major" as a marker for many. For sure 2nd serve is fixable. (Look at Nadal and his progress on serve over the years. Or Novak, for that matter.) Amongst the real young ones, I also like Sinner. That's a start, but you pose other interesting questions.

Not to nit-pick, but Felix is 19 and turns 20 in August. I know, time passes! But given that the whole aging pattern seems to have shifted, he's doing quite well for his age. 19 in 2020 is not like 19 in 2000, let alone1980. I haven't done the research, but my guess is that no young player has done as well as he has--reaching five ATP finals as a teenager, and he's still got a few months--since Novak/Andy.

Meaning, I think it is a valid spin to focus on the fact that Felix has made five ATP finals as a teenager, which is quite impressive. Not including the AO, he's reached the final of half of the ATP tournaments he's played in this year. A small sample size (four non-Slam tournaments), but still impressive and telling of his progress.

My prediction for Felix is that he wins an ATP title or two this year, possibly even a Masters, goes deep in at least one Slam, and finishes the year in the bottom half of the top 10. Next year he is a serious contender and earns his way into the top 5 by the end of the year, with at least a Masters title, if not a Slam. By 2022 he could be the best player on tour. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I feel really good about this kid.

I haven't yet watched Sinner, but considering his ranking at a young age and your and others' take, I expect good things from him. If I were to predict a post-Big Three paradigm, the best candidates for the true elite--#1s and multi-Slam winners--seem to be FAA, Tsitsipas, and possibly Sinner, with the caveat that it is too soon to tell on Jannik. The next group would be Zverev, Medvedev, Thiem (the old guy), possibly Berretini, Rublev and Shapovalov. After that you have the guys who will populate the top 20 and be regulars in the top 10: Khachanov, Garin, de Minaur, Fritz, Kecmanovic, and a bunch of others.

 

[Jelenafan]

I only realized recently. After he lost in Rotterdam to Monfils, I saw a formal photo of both of them with tournament officials, etc., and noticed that Felix was the tallest person in the photo, to my surprise. So I looked him up, when he played Tsitsipas, and they are listed as same height, with Tsitsipas having a few more pounds on him, so far, as Felix is still filling out, I'd say. Yes, I was surprised, too.

Even while taking official heights and weights with a grain of salt, it seems it takes young male players time to bulk up as far as a bit more muscle. Surprised to see that while Kyrgios is listed as the same height, (6-4) his stated weight is 187, whereas FAA is listed at 194, which makes Kyrgios 7 pounds lighter.

 

[Moxie]

Not to nit-pick, but Felix is 19 and turns 20 in August. I know, time passes! But given that the whole aging pattern seems to have shifted, he's doing quite well for his age. 19 in 2020 is not like 19 in 2000, let alone1980. I haven't done the research, but my guess is that no young player has done as well as he has--reaching five ATP finals as a teenager, and he's still got a few months--since Novak/Andy.

Meaning, I think it is a valid spin to focus on the fact that Felix has made five ATP finals as a teenager, which is quite impressive. Not including the AO, he's reached the final of half of the ATP tournaments he's played in this year. A small sample size (four non-Slam tournaments), but still impressive and telling of his progress.

My prediction for Felix is that he wins an ATP title or two this year, possibly even a Masters, goes deep in at least one Slam, and finishes the year in the bottom half of the top 10. Next year he is a serious contender and earns his way into the top 5 by the end of the year, with at least a Masters title, if not a Slam. By 2022 he could be the best player on tour. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I feel really good about this kid.

I haven't yet watched Sinner, but considering his ranking at a young age and your and others' take, I expect good things from him. If I were to predict a post-Big Three paradigm, the best candidates for the true elite--#1s and multi-Slam winners--seem to be FAA, Tsitsipas, and possibly Sinner, with the caveat that it is too soon to tell on Jannik. The next group would be Zverev, Medvedev, Thiem (the old guy), possibly Berretini, Rublev and Shapovalov. After that you have the guys who will populate the top 20 and be regulars in the top 10: Khachanov, Garin, de Minaur, Fritz, Kecmanovic, and a bunch of others.

I thought I had nothing but good things to say about FAA. I was giving an argument for the notion that not having won a title yet, but having been in 5 finals IS a good thing, and the old measure means little. That was my only point.

 

[El Dude]

I thought I had nothing but good things to say about FAA. I was giving an argument for the notion that not having won a title yet, but having been in 5 finals IS a good thing, and the old measure means little. That was my only point.

I didn't think you were! I was just riffing, and maybe comforting myself a bit. ;-)

 

[don_fabio]

Even while taking official heights and weights with a grain of salt, it seems it takes young male players time to bulk up as far as a bit more muscle. Surprised to see that while Kyrgios is listed as the same height, (6-4) his stated weight is 187, whereas FAA is listed at 194, which makes Kyrgios 7 pounds lighter.

Yeah Kyrgios lacks muscle and is underfit. I noticed Tsitsipas has bulked up a bit, his arms definitely look bigger.

Still did not have a chance to watch Sinner, but will keep a close eye on his results. FAA is impressive with 5 finals already. Perhaps Shapovalov could do better than having 1 ATP 250 title if only he learned what the patience means.

 

[atttomole]

FAA. He has an impressive set of skills. I hope he can hone those skills, so that we can enjoy attacking tennis when Roger finally retires.

 

[herios]

FAA. He has an impressive set of skills. I hope he can hone those skills, so that we can enjoy attacking tennis when Roger finally retires.

Stefanos Tsitsipas seems to me a lot more closer to be be a replacement for Roger than Felix is.

 

[atttomole]

Stefanos Tsitsipas seems to me a lot more closer to be be a replacement for Roger than Felix is.

I agree that Tsitsipas’s game is close to Federer’s. However, I think FAA has the attributes to play attacking tennis. He has the height, he has the serve, and a powerful forfehand. His volleying is excellent too. With the way he moves, I thought he was 6’1” but someone said he is actually 6’4”. He just has to sharpen his skills and adapt his game.

 

[El Dude]

FAA reminds me a bit of Djokovic. Not quite as gumby-esque, but who is?

 

[herios]

Jannick Sinner was added to the ambassador team for Rolex, joined Roger, Stefanos and Muguruza

 

[Moxie]

Tennis Channel did a piece on this kid, Paul Jubb. He's 20, because he went to college, and was, in his own words, a late bloomer in juniors, because it was hard for him, (in difficult family circumstances,) to travel to tournaments. Got a scholarship to play tennis at USC and won the NCAA championship last year. On top of that, his story is very compelling. Maybe one to watch, when he hits the tour.

Rather than dwell on tragedy, diamond in the rough Paul Jubb persisted

TENNIS.com - Live Scores, Tennis News, Player Ranking, and Complete Tournament Data.

www.tennis.com

.

 

[Moxie]

Talking recently with some fellow Rafa fans, we were discussing who we liked coming up for when Rafa hangs them up. I thought we had a thread for "Who's going to be your next...etc" but I didn't find it. However, I did find this one from @El Dude, and it seems like a good place to bring back the conversation. 20 months later, and note that Alcaraz isn't even on the radar. Not so much looking for predictions as who folks are warming up to as someone they think they can back/root for/take to their fannish hearts. I don't have an answer yet, for myself. I think everyone is a Sinner believer. For various reasons that have been discussed, I have cooled on Zverev and Tsitsipas. Liking Sebastian Korda. Dunno where I am yet, but curious to know where others are on the newer crop, emotional-investment wise.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Well we nearly lost Jannik Sinner to professional skiing as he was a junior skiing champion,thankfully he chose tennis as his career.It has been a long time coming for Italian fans (myself included) to have such a young tennis talent on the scene.Jannik has so much 'upside to his game' and he continues to improve.He also appears mature for his young age on and off the court.He always appears calm on the court,keeping his emotions in check (which is surprising for an Italian man lol).I look forward to watching him play now and in the future.